Nagorno-Karabakh: Erdogan meets Aliyev, thousands of refugees continue to pour into Armenia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on Monday with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhichevan, bordering Turkey and nestled between Iran and Armenia.

An image distributed by the Azerbaijani presidency on September 25, 2023 shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyv participating in the opening ceremony of the Nakhchivan military and industrial reconstruction complex in the Nakhchivan enclave. AFP - HANDOUT

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With our correspondent in Istanbul, Anne Andlauer

Officially, the meeting was to launch the construction of an 85 km gas pipeline between eastern Turkey and Nakhchivan. But it was mainly about Nagorno-Karabakh, where the Azerbaijani army last week carried out a military offensive and pushed Armenian separatists to accept a ceasefire. Turkey, an ally of Baku, welcomed this and hopes to advance its pawns.

Seen from Ankara, Baku's unwavering supporter, Azerbaijan's victory against the Armenian separatists is also a victory for Turkey, all the more loved because it was swift. It is on this point that Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted after his meeting with Ilham Aliyev. The Turkish president called the victory a "source of pride" for his country, but said it opened up "new opportunities for normalization" in the region.

The Turkish head of state, who has begun a rapprochement with Armenia in recent years, took advantage of this visit to the Nakhchivan enclave to call on Yerevan to seize "the peaceful hand extended to it".

While Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian are scheduled to meet in the city of Granada, Spain, on October 5 in the presence of several European leaders, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing for a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue that would include Turkey and Russia, and exclude Westerners. As for Ilham Aliyev, he claimed that the rights of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh would be "guaranteed". All residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, "regardless of ethnicity, are citizens of Azerbaijan," Aliyev said.

Nakhchivan, a place as symbolic as it is strategic

By Daniel Vallot

It is a territory of 5,000 km2, the size of a French department, which is framed by three countries: Armenia, Iran and Turkey.

On the other hand, it has no borders with the country of which it belongs, namely Azerbaijan. This dates back to the early 1920s when Stalin and Lenin decided to redraw the borders of the Caucasus – and as usual the Bolshevik leaders did not miss an opportunity to complicate the mapping and interweave peoples and sovereignties – which would be the source of multiple conflicts when the USSR imploded.

Since its independence, Azerbaijan has continued to demand a land corridor to Nakhchivan to open up a territory all the more important in its eyes as the Aliyev family, in power in Baku since independence, originated there.

For Turkey, the territory is also very important because it would ensure territorial continuity with Azerbaijan, its main ally in the region. The two leaders have planned to inaugurate a new gas pipeline and an Azerbaijani military base, which gives a fairly precise idea of the stakes raised by this territory.

Some observers believe that after Nagorno-Karabakh, Nakhchivan will be Azerbaijan's next military objective, which would however imply a direct conflict, this time, with Yerevan, since Armenia's territorial integrity would be called into question this time.

But currently, Russia is accused by Armenia of not supporting it. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan implicitly blamed Moscow for its lack of support, describing his country's current alliances, especially with Russia, as "ineffective". Words quickly criticized on the Russian side. "We are categorically against attempts to blame the Russian side and the Russian peacekeeping forces," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, rejecting any "blame" for alleged failings.

Influx of refugees

Meanwhile, the influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh continued on Monday with huge lines of vehicles reported on the only road linking Stepanakert to Armenia. In total, 6,650 people "forcibly displaced" from this enclave have entered Armenia since Sunday after the defeat of separatist fighters, according to the latest assessment of the Armenian government.

A refugee walks past a line of vehicles waiting after crossing the border and arriving at the Armenian Foreign Ministry registration centre, near the border town of Kornidzor, September 25, 2023. AFP - ALAIN JOCARD

And the number of entries into Armenia continues to rise, reports our correspondent in Goris, Taline Oundjian. At the first humanitarian point in the border village of Kornidzor, people arriving to register follow one another. The population is exhausted, a little relieved to finally feel safe, but disappointed to have had to leave everything behind without knowing precisely where they can be rehoused.

The Armenian government says it is ready to take in 40,000 people, but authorities expect the vast majority of Nagorno-Karabakh's 120,000 Armenians to leave the territory because the population does not feel safe. They fear facing Azerbaijani forces and peaceful coexistence seems impossible.

In the town of Goris, close to the border, hotels have opened their doors to all refugees while the town's performance hall has been transformed into an emergency shelter. The exodus is underway as many researchers and human rights organizations have been warning for months about fears of ethnic cleansing in the region.

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