Countdown to Washington to avoid paralysis of public services

The 2024 budget must be adopted by Congress before October 1. But without an agreement between Democrats and Republicans, the federal administration will have to stop some payments.

And the first victims would be the approximately two million federal employees who would see their salaries suspended for the duration of the "shutdown".

A little more than a year before the presidential election, in which Democratic President Joe Biden is a candidate, the two parties are at loggerheads.

"Government funding is one of the most fundamental responsibilities of Congress. It's time for Republicans to start doing the job America elected them to do," Biden thundered Saturday at a dinner.

The White House put a layer on Monday by accusing the "Republican extremists of the House" of taking the risk of "compromising vital food assistance for nearly seven million vulnerable women and children", at the risk of "playing with people's lives", a possible paralysis of federal public services, effectively cutting federal spending.

Tensions are crystallizing around additional aid for Ukraine, after the visit to Washington on Thursday of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky (L) in the Oval Office of the White House, on September 21, 2023 in Washington © Jim WATSON / AFP

Both parties in the Senate are in favour of it. But in the House of Representatives, a handful of elected representatives of the Trumpist right refuse to bring their votes.

"I will not vote to spend a single penny on the war in Ukraine. I'm for America first," Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a close associate of Donald Trump, said Friday in a video shot in front of a weight machine and published on the social network X (ex-Twitter).

Also a gym, American flag in the background, another elected official, Eli Crane, also posted a video castigating these aids: "People in my district, and across the country, are so tired of funding others."

Recurrent tensions

The necessary vote on the budget in Congress regularly turns into a tug-of-war, with each side waving the specter of shutting down federal services to extract concessions from the other. Usually with a last-minute resolution.

But these recurring tensions are exacerbated this year by polarization in Congress.

On the Senate side, the leaders of both parties, Chuck Schumer for the Democrats, Mitch McConnell for the Republicans, two old political truckers, continue to discuss.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, surrounded by Senate officials Republican Mitch McConnell (l) and Democrat Chuck Schumer (r), on Capitol Hill, September 21, 2023 in Washington © Pedro Ugarte / AFP

"(We) are both strongly in favor of helping Ukraine," Chuck Schumer told CNN on Friday, saying he was "very, very optimistic."

In a note published on Monday, Moody's stressed that the absence of an agreement would "highlight the weakness of governance and institutions in the United States in terms of fiscal policy" and "have a negative effect on the sovereign debt" of the United States, while it is the last agency to give the maximum rating, AAA, to the US debt.

If no agreement is reached, a draft provisional budget could be adopted, which would offer a few months of respite to elected officials to find common ground.

This threat of paralysis comes just four months after the previous soap opera, that of the debt ceiling, whose consequences would have been even greater, with a possible default by the United States.

As part of the agreement that was signed, the Democrats agreed to limit certain spending, which should have allowed the budget stage to pass smoothly.

However, "today, a small group of extremist Republicans do not want to respect the agreement and all Americans may have to pay the price," Biden said Saturday.

"We need to lock ourselves in a room and solve the problem," Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales said Sunday.

"I don't want a +shutdown+ but it is certain for me that the country is heading there and that everyone must prepare for it," he added.

Among the consequences to be anticipated, some food aid cheques may not be sent. Air traffic could be disrupted, national parks not maintained, ... Civil servants considered "non-essential" will be asked to stay home, and will only receive their salaries once the problem is resolved.

The country has experienced four major shutdowns since 1976. The last, the longest, lasted more than a month in late 2018 and early 2019, cutting $3 billion from the GDP of the United States, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

© 2023 AFP