A US research team has found that the world will see a significant rise in the number of major floods, reaching an annual rate of one flood by the end of the century, putting the world's coastal city dwellers at serious risk.
To come up with the findings, published in the journal Earth's Future, the researchers used data from more than 300 tidal gauges around the world to estimate future sea levels over the next few decades, according to forecasts of rising global average temperatures.
As sea levels rise relative to beaches, coastal infrastructure becomes closer to water, increasing the likelihood that storms, tides and waves will affect them.
The researchers calculated the impact of sea level rise on beach levels and found that major flooding rates in most of the sites they studied would increase to once a year instead of once every hundred years by the end of the century.
Scientists also predict that coastlines around the world will experience an average of once every nine to 15 years by mid-century.
Major flooding rates will increase to once a year instead of once every hundred years by the end of the century (Wikimedia)
A new world is different
Sea level rise is linked to melting ice around the world, especially in regions such as Antarctica and Greenland.
The problem is that sea level rise is currently occurring at an accelerated rate: from about 1.1 millimeters per year from 1900 to 1990, it rose to 3.2 millimeters per year from 1993 to 2012.
These may seem like insignificant figures, but a three-centimeter rise in sea level every ten years is a real disaster, because it means that by the end of the century the sea will rise by about half a full meter.
The findings are consistent with a 2019 study in the journal Nature Communications led by Princeton University researchers who combined sea level rise rates with the expected increase in tropical storms and hurricanes and their strength due to climate change over the following decades.
The researchers mapped the likelihood of flood risks along the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico in particular as a research model, and came to the same conclusion: Major floods that occur with a probability of just 1% per year will rise to once a year.
According to a press release from the American Geophysical Union, which is involved in the new study, this data is necessary for authorities in all countries of the world, especially engineering agencies that design and build structures such as sea dams, sea walls and breakwaters to protect communities from severe flooding.