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Hesse's Prime Minister Boris Rhein (CDU)

Photo: Thorsten Wagner / onemorepicture / IMAGO

The CDU continues to lead in the polls for the upcoming state elections in Hesse. There, citizens are called upon to elect the new state parliament on 8 October.

The Christian Democrats, led by Prime Minister Boris Rhein, are well ahead of the SPD and the Greens with 29 percent. The Social Democrats with top candidate Nancy Faeser come to 18 percent and thus lose slightly. The Greens with Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Al-Wazir are catching up slightly and are now at 20 percent. The AfD is at around 16 percent. This is the result of a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Civey on behalf of SPIEGEL.

(Read more about the Civey methodology here.)

The FDP would currently manage the five percent hurdle with six percent and be represented in the state parliament. Instead, the Left Party disappears into oblivion, ending up with only three percent a few weeks before the election. In Hesse, the party is its last parliamentary group in a West German state.

A continuation of the previous government coalition of the CDU and the Greens would still be mathematically possible with this result. CDU Prime Minister Rhein could also enter into a coalition with the SPD. For Faeser or Al-Wazir, a traffic light majority with the FDP would be mathematically just possible.

In the previous election in 2018, the CDU won 27 percent, while the Greens came in second, just ahead of the SPD (both 19.8 percent). The AfD won 13.1 percent of the vote, the FDP 7.5 percent and the Left Party 6.3 percent.

The opinion research institute Civey asks the Sunday question for SPIEGEL every two weeks until the election date. The election polls are not forecasts of the election outcome. They merely reflect the political mood.