Certainly, the Catalan independence forces lost 350,000 votes in the municipal elections of May 28. Certainly, they have been unable to exhibit an image of reunion during the campaign of the generals to reengage their voters and reverse abstention, which is presented as their main enemy next Sunday. But no less true is that ERC and Junts can be decisive for the governability of Spain if the PP fails to add the necessary majority to remove Pedro Sánchez from the presidency.

It is obvious that the socialist will be able to continue resorting to ERC if its support is enough to stay in La Moncloa. The party led by Oriol Junqueras has staged a hardening of its conditions to anoint the PSOE candidate, but will not hesitate to do so if it has the chance, aware that the policy of concessions towards independence would end abruptly if Alberto Núñez Feijóo gathers the necessary votes to be invested.

There are three conditions for the Republicans to back Sánchez again: keeping alive the negotiating table on Catalan self-determination is the main one. Shortly before the local elections were held, Pere Aragonès appointed a committee of experts that was to design a "pact of clarity" to invite the State to agree to hold an internationally comparable referendum. The work of that Sanhedrin has been paralyzed until knowing the result of the generals, but the bet of ERC is to continue advancing in that way to end up demanding a secessionist vote tolerated by the Government, unlike the one organized on October 1, 2017.

If Sánchez swallows with that requirement, the road will appear flat, but not expeditious, because ERC also demands the end of the "fiscal deficit" and the transfer of the Cercanías network. This last condition could be assumed according to the concessions made in the legislature that expires, with pardons and the elimination of the crime of sedition at the head. But it will be more difficult to realize the end of this "plundering" that the Catalan independence movement has been brandishing as an electoral argument since it has the use of reason.

In any case, that obstacle will be easier to overcome than the obstinacy of Carles Puigdemont. "Sanchez will not be president with the votes of Junts. Paying in advance to an uncle from whom you would not buy a second-hand car is a risky sport, "said the fugitive last week. His valida, the related Míriam Nogueras, will execute the orders of the fugitive without hesitation and these go through boycotting the functioning of the State as much as possible. Forcing a repeat election? It is a plausible scenario for a party that yearns to regain prominence to return to dispute the Generalitat to ERC as soon as possible. And what better poster than to demonstrate that secessionism is once again the main headache in Spain, contrary to what Sánchez defends, who considers Catalonia "normalized".

That the independence movement can be decisive this 23-J does not mean that its results will be spectacular. The demoscopy gives the PSC as the sure winner and gives the PP possibilities to follow the Catalan Socialists as a second force, surpassing the two large pro-independence parties and reaching eight or nine deputies, for the current two.

Assigned the victory, that second place has become the main object of desire of the parties that fight the Catalan battle. If the PP conquered it, its resurrection in the community would be ratified and it would underpin a comfortable victory of Feijóo. Meanwhile, ERC and Junts seek to impose themselves in their particular duel with an eye on the next Catalan regional elections that will take place in 2025 if Aragonès does not succumb before to his minority.

  • CKD
  • PP
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Generalitat of Catalonia
  • PSC
  • Pere Aragonès
  • Alberto Núñez Feijóo
  • PSOE
  • Oriol Junqueras

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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