All scenarios are possible. What is the RSF seeking after its military retreat?

KHARTOUM — 100 days after fighting broke out in the Sudanese capital Khartoum between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the leaders of the latter have begun studying several options that will determine their future after the cessation of the war, including the search for a military and political role or the transformation into a nationalist armed movement with a political arm emanating from western Sudan, according to politicians and observers.

Mubarak al-Fadil al-Mahdi, former assistant to the president and leader of the Umma Party, revealed that the RSF is negotiating surrender in exchange for a political and military role in Sudan, adding in a tweet on Twitter that the RSF negotiated the terms of surrender according to confirmed information.

Pre-settlement

Al-Mahdi added that Abdul Rahim Dagalo, the second commander of the Rapid Support, met in the Chadian city of um Jars with an American representative, another Kenyan and a third Gulf representative, each of them separately, and conveyed to them the desire of the Rapid Support for a safe exit with a military-political role, noting that accordingly, Kenyan President William Ruto contacted the President of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, despite Sudan's refusal to transfer Ruto to Abdul Rahim Dagalo's request.

For the same reason as the RSF's negotiation to surrender, he explained that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Burhan and briefed him on the matter, and on this basis Burhan agreed to the return of the army delegation to the negotiating table in the Saudi city of Jeddah, according to al-Mahdi.

In another interview with Al Jazeera Net, Mahdi believes that Abdul Rahim Dagalo came out of Khartoum to Chad after he realized the loss of the battle of the capital, where he is looking for a way out of the rest of his forces and seek a foothold in the future, believing that the practices of the Rapid Support Forces in the capital and looting the property of citizens and the occupation of their homes and incidents of killings, rape and widespread violations against civilians destroyed its political future.

Al-Mahdi believes that belonging to the RSF was based on tribal loyalty and money, and that after the movement's leadership lost sources of funding, freezing its funds in Sudan, and US sanctions on its companies, its financial situation will weaken, in addition to the fact that tribal loyalty is linked to the interests of tribal groups that continue in a losing battle.

Chad, Libya and Togo

Security sources close to the African file revealed that the mission of the second commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Abderrahim Dagalo, in Chad - which he visited last week - did not achieve its goals in finding a settlement to the war crimes that his forces are accused of committing in the city of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur state.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, security sources explained that the governor of the Darfur region and head of the Sudan Liberation Movement Minni Arko Minawi, and the Minister of Finance and leader of the Justice and Equality Movement Jibril Ibrahim refused to meet Dagalo in the Chadian capital N'Djamena, as their invitation by Chadian President Mohamed Idriss Deby was to consult on developments in Darfur and the implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement and not for discussion with the leadership of the Rapid Support Forces.

According to the same sources, the Sultan of the Masalit tribe, Saad Bahr al-Din, and the tribal leaders refused to meet Dagalo, who intended to apologize to the symbols of the tribe for the practices that happened in El Geneina that international organizations classified as "ethnic cleansing".

Dagalo moved from Chad to Libya, which he arrived by land to Sabha and then by air to Benghazi in eastern Libya, and information suggested that Dagalo's visit to Libya was aimed at obtaining military support after the lack of equipment for his forces, which made them lose the spirit of initiative in fighting and compounded their losses, according to the same sources.

The security sources added that the Rapid Support Command and internal and external parties supporting it, plan to create a political entity to be expressed during the next stage after the cessation of the war, especially during the political process that will be launched after reaching a comprehensive and final cessation of hostilities, indicating that the Rapid Support Command is not far from a consultative forum that will be held in the city of Lomé - the capital of the State of Togo - next Sunday and Monday, with the participation of 25 political leaders and leaders of armed struggle movements in Darfur to discuss the imbalances in the region and discuss the causes of the current war.

The sources explained that the forum will witness the participation of the political adviser to the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Youssef Ezzat, as well as figures working with the Rapid Support Forces from behind the curtain and others sympathetic to it, indicating that the real goal of the forum will discuss how to address the practices of rapid support in Darfur, which have created a bad image of it and have become an obstacle towards the citizens of the region, as well as another goal is to think about creating a political entity led by figures who are not officially affiliated with the Rapid Support to express it during the next stage.

Armed movement

In the same regard, political analyst Abdullah Ismail believes that the Rapid Support Command seeks a settlement under which it obtains guarantees to retain some of its forces for a specific period of time, and to integrate those who wish from them with the regular government forces, as well as seeking to form a political entity or enter into political alliances with other forces and factions in order to participate in the parliament that will be established after the end of the transitional period, pointing out that Mohammed Hamdan Daglo "Hemedti" admires Hezbollah's experience in Lebanon, according to Ismail.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Ismail believes that if the Rapid Support Command is unable to achieve what it wants through negotiations, it will turn into an armed movement whose scope of military activity includes the states of Darfur and the states of West, North and Kordofan, as well as the establishment of a political wing that includes a wide spectrum that allows it to present itself as a national movement and not regional or regional until it comes to Khartoum again through a political settlement.

However, an official in the media office of the Rapid Support Forces – asked not to be identified – refused to confirm or deny the departure of Abdul Rahim Dagalo to Chad and Libya, and told Al Jazeera Net that he leads his forces, as denied any link to them consultative forum for Darfur leaders held in Togo, explaining that a well-known organization is organizing the forum.

He added that their forces are making progress in Khartoum and control most of the capital's three cities, and they are the ones who impose their conditions through the negotiating table and not the losing party, and he considered any talk of establishing a new political or military body premature and not on the table currently.