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- Direct Direct General Elections 23-J, last minute
- PSOE program Sánchez promises more Sánchez: he will not lower taxes, he will not reform the Judiciary and he will maintain his policy with the independentistas
The start of the electoral campaign has breathed strength into the Popular Party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, which would obtain 35% of the votes on July 23, with a participation currently estimated at 71.7%. The daily tracking of Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO detects a stable and upward trend of the popular, who would get a range of between 145 and 147 deputies. In just three days, their expectations have grown seven tenths and now aspire to reach the psychological barrier of 150 seats. The strength of the PP and the resistance of Vox, which remains as the third force, consolidate the possible absolute majority of the conservative bloc, which would carry out an investiture with between 180 and 185 deputies, with the seat of UPN for Navarra.
The tracking of Sigma Dos, carried out from 4,533 interviews between July 1 and 7, also confirms a slight setback of the PSOE of Pedro Sánchez, who yesterday presented his electoral program. The Socialists fall back to 28.2% and lose two seats in their maximum range. They get between 104 and 106 deputies in this Saturday's poll. The distance between the candidates for the presidency widens, and Feijóo leads Sánchez by 6.8 points and more than 40 deputies. At the start of this series, the difference was 5.5 points and the gap between the two major parties was closer to 30 MPs, depending on the ranges.
For now, the PP achieves better results than the union between the PSOE and Sumar in any of the scenarios, but it would still need the yes of Vox in a hypothetical investiture, since the block of the national left together with ERC, Junts, PNV, EH Bildu, the CUP and the BNG would obtain between 164 and 171 deputies.
Vox's outlook improves to 37 seats and surpasses Sumar
The key would be Santiago Abascal, who moves one tenth upwards and stands at 12.8%, with a prediction of between 35 and 37 seats in Congress. Vox retains, by a narrow margin, the third place in front of Sumar. The campaign of Yolanda Díaz, marked by proposals such as the universal inheritance of 20,000 euros for all young people of 18 years, or the monthly check of 200 euros per child until their majority, fails to work electorally. The projection given by the tracking of Sigma Dos drops slightly to 12.5%, although it remains between 30 and 32 deputies, below the result of Unidas Podemos in the general elections of 10-N of 2019 -35 seats-.
ERC ties with Junts and loses five deputies compared to 2019
With the campaign already launched and all the parties with their programs published, the right faces the last 15 days on the way to the polls with a majority based on a vote intention that touches 48%, a percentage that was never reached during the eight years of government of José María Aznar and that only has precedent in the absolute majority of Mariano Rajoy in 2011, when it achieved 44.6% and 186 deputies, to which could be added the five parliamentarians of UPyD, which achieved 4.7%.
The PP continues to cement its victory in the leaks from the PSOE, with 10.5% of former socialist voters who would now bet on Feijóo. The figure, although it fluctuates between days, is still the main impulse of the PP, along with the 18.5% that steals from Vox, although 9.3% of those who voted for Pablo Casado in 2019 would now do so for Santiago Abascal.
In the rest of the parties, the survey reflects a stable panorama, with ERC and Junts in 8-9 deputies, PNV and EH Bildu in 6 each, with 2 for the CUP, and one possible for Soria Ya, Teruel Existe, Coalición Canaria and the BNG.
Reference population and geographical scope: People aged 18 and over resident in Spain with the right to vote.
Information collection technique: Through the Sigma Dos by Trust Survey Panel. Mixed telephone methodology (CATI) / online (CAWI).
Sample sizes: 4,533 interviews.
Selection of the sample units: In the telephone interview by random selection of household and application of quotas of sex and age in the selection of the last unit. In the case of the panel, proportional allocation by sex and age group has been applied. The distribution of the sample has been proportional by autonomous community in both samples.
Margin of error: The absolute sampling error can be limited by ±1.5% for a confidence level of 95.5%, and in the case of variables with two equally distributed categories.
Fieldwork Date: July 1-7, 2023
Realization: Realized by SIGMA DOS S.L, Calle Velázquez 50, Madrid, for Unidad Editorial
Technical direction: José Luis Rojo Gil.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project