Avoiding risks: NATO promised an additional €500 million aid package to Ukraine

NATO is preparing an additional €500 million aid package for Ukraine, including fuel, spare parts and medicines. This was stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a press conference in Brussels on the eve of the NATO summit on July 11-12.

"Allies have already pledged €500 million for critical needs, including fuel, medical supplies, demining equipment and pontoon bridges," he said.

Stoltenberg added that NATO will help Kyiv build "Ukraine's security and defense sector, including military hospitals," as well as support the transition "from Soviet-era equipment to NATO equipment and standards."

• Jens Stoltenberg
• AP
• © Virginia Mayo

He also said that at the summit "the leaders of the member states will agree on a package of three elements to bring Ukraine closer to NATO."

"First, we will agree on a multi-year assistance program to ensure full interoperability between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO. Secondly, we will strengthen our political ties through the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council," Stoltenberg said.

Thirdly, the Secretary General added, "the leaders of the allies will confirm that Ukraine will become a member of NATO," as well as "ensure unity on how to bring Ukraine closer to its goal (joining the alliance. — RT)».

In addition, Stoltenberg told reporters that during the meeting, NATO members will take further steps to contain Russia.

"At the Summit, we will take further important steps to strengthen our deterrence and defense posture by adopting three new regional defense plans to counter NATO's two main threats: Russia and terrorism," the Secretary General said.

Speaking to reporters, he recalled that in 2023 the growth of military spending in European NATO countries and Canada will be 8,3%.

"This is the biggest increase in decades. And for the ninth year in a row, our defense spending has increased. As such, European allies and Canada have invested more than $450 billion in additional investments since we agreed on our defense investment commitment in 2014," Stoltenberg said.

The head of the alliance also announced the participation in the summit of the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. According to him, this is due to the fact that the security of the alliance "is not regional, but global."

According to analysts interviewed by RT, due to the difficult situation in the economy, an increase in aid to Ukraine and an increase in military spending carry serious domestic political risks for Western countries.

"But the current leaders of Western countries believe that they will be able to retain power and prevent the election of politicians who intend to pursue a different foreign policy. In addition, they will solve problems in the economy at the expense of the rest of the world, "said Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, in a conversation with RT.

'The Prospect of a Grim Choice'

According to analysts, promising Kiev new aid packages and formats of cooperation with NATO, the alliance still makes it clear that Ukraine will not be able to join the bloc in the foreseeable future.

This, in particular, was stated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt.

"In 2008, in Bucharest, NATO adopted decisions that articulated a long-term vision. It is clear to everyone that in the foreseeable future this (Ukraine's accession to NATO. - RT) will not happen. Also because NATO's criteria include a number of conditions that Ukraine currently cannot fulfill," Scholz said, adding that the determination of security guarantees for Ukraine by the West is also not a matter of the near future.

"It is also clear that then we will need to discuss what security guarantees can be provided in the post-war situation. But there is still a long way to go. Let's focus on what is happening now," the Chancellor said.

• Olaf Scholz
• AP
• © Michele Tantussi

In early July, in an interview with the ARD TV channel, Scholz reaffirmed his position that Kyiv would not be able to join the alliance in the current situation.

In turn, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said in early June that the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO should not be discussed at the alliance's summit in July. According to him, the countries of the alliance have a consensus on this matter.

A similar statement was made by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Speaking in June at the Shangri-La Dialogue international security forum in Singapore, she admitted that Ukraine would not be able to join the North Atlantic Alliance in the context of the ongoing military conflict.

The statements of the United States on this issue also do not promise Kiev an early accession to the alliance. So, during a briefing on June 2, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre actually avoided answering the question of whether Washington supports Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic bloc. According to her, the United States is committed to NATO's open door policy, but the decision to join the alliance is made by all its members. At the same time, Jean-Pierre stressed that at the moment the United States is focusing on providing military assistance to Ukraine.

In turn, the head of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, reiterated that the doors to NATO remain open for Kyiv, but Ukraine will not be able to become a member of the alliance until the conflict on its territory ends.

The opinion that Ukraine has no place in NATO at the moment is shared by many representatives of the Western expert community.

On July 7, Foreign Affairs magazine published an article by Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, and Joshua Shifrinson, associate professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. Both experts believe that "Ukraine should not be admitted to NATO and President Biden should make this clear."

"For the United States, in terms of security, the benefits of Ukraine's accession to the alliance pale in comparison to the risks that it entails. Ukraine's admission to NATO would mean the prospect of a grim choice: a war with Russia and the ensuing devastating consequences, or a retreat and depreciation of NATO's security guarantees at the level of the entire alliance, "the authors of the publication emphasize.

A similar point of view is contained in the material of the editor-in-chief of The Nation, Katrina vanden Heuvel and the former adviser to the US State Department, James Carden, published in the British newspaper The Guardian. The authors of the article note that the territorial dispute in Ukraine has been dragging on since 2014 and the lack of prospects for its speedy settlement suggests that there are no grounds for Ukraine's hasty accession to NATO now.

Meanwhile, Ukraine previously insisted that the process of Kiev's accession to the alliance should be launched at the summit in Vilnius. In particular, the deputy head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Ihor Zhovkva, even threatened at the end of June that if this requirement was not met, the Ukrainian leader might not go to the upcoming summit.

According to Zelensky himself, Kiev still hopes that it will receive an invitation to NATO at the upcoming summit.

"Despite everything, we are still working. There is no final result that can be in Vilnius," Zelensky said on July 7 at a joint press conference in Bratislava with Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová.

"Taking into account the possible reaction of Moscow"

According to analysts, on the eve of the summit in Vilnius, NATO is trying to demonstrate active support for Ukraine in order to compensate for the negative effect of its statements about the impossibility of accepting Kiev into the alliance.

"This is an attempt to justify itself. Promising to adopt new programs and mechanisms of cooperation such as the NATO-Ukraine Council, speaking of all kinds of security guarantees from individual member countries of the bloc, the leadership of the alliance is actually trying to smooth out the corners, "said RISS expert Sergei Yermakov in a conversation with RT.

• Jens Stoltenberg and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv
• AP
• © Ukrainian Presidential Press Office

At the same time, analysts believe that the reluctance to accept Ukraine into NATO is dictated by sound calculation.

"Kiev's entry into the alliance could lead to a direct clash of nuclear powers - this is the main risk. In addition, even without Kiev's entry into the bloc, NATO troops, weapons and money are already present in Ukraine, "says Vladimir Bruter.

In turn, Sergey Yermakov notes that in the conditions of impossibility to accept Ukraine into NATO, the alliance will look for some kind of compromise solution for Kiev.

"They will work out a compromise solution. This approach includes statements that NATO and members of the alliance will continue to provide comprehensive support to Kiev, and promises to expand assistance and military-strategic cooperation. But at the same time, despite all the rhetoric of the West, NATO will make specific decisions on Ukraine one way or another, taking into account Moscow's possible reaction to such a step," the expert concluded.