National Climate Center: It is expected that there will be many high temperature weather in the country in July, and the stage of high temperature in Huanghuai in North China is obvious
From now on, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Luyu and other places continue to have high temperatures
On July 7, the China Meteorological Administration held a regular press conference in July. The reporter learned that in June this year, China's high temperature process was many and extreme, and the national average temperature was the second highest in the same period of history since 4. It is expected that there will still be many high temperature weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other places in early July, and from the 7th to the 6th, the daily maximum temperature in parts of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Fenwei Plain, northern Henan and northern Shandong can reach 1961°C to 2°C. From the 7th to the 5th, there will be obvious high temperature weather in southern North China, Fenwei Plain, northern Henan and other places.
According to the National Climate Center, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration recently organized relevant experts to hold a national climate trend and major meteorological disaster prediction meeting in midsummer (July to August), and it is expected that China's climate conditions in midsummer this year are average to deviation, extreme weather and climate events are more, and disasters such as phased heavy precipitation, heavy rain and flooding, high temperature and heat waves are more serious.
summary
The average temperature in June was the second highest in history since 6
Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, introduced that the national warm and dry climate characteristics were outstanding in June. In June, the national average temperature was 6.6°C, 21.1°C higher than the same period of the year, the second highest in the same period since 0 (only lower than the 7.1961°C in June 2); The national average precipitation was 2022.6 mm, 21.3% less than the same period of the year, the lowest since 86.
Jia Xiaolong introduced that the main weather and climate events in the country in June were: 6 heavy rainfall processes, rapid development of meteorological drought in the north, many high temperature processes and significant extremes, and a total of 4 strong convective weather.
In June, a total of 6 regional high temperature processes occurred in China, of which May 4 to June 5 was the first regional high temperature process this year, 28 days earlier than the usual year, mainly affecting 6 provinces and cities such as Shanghai, Yunnan, Sichuan, Anhui and Guangdong, and 5 stations such as Yunnan Qiaojia broke through the historical extreme. From June 16 to 15, the strongest high temperature process this year occurred, and the high temperature in North China (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Luyu) was extremely high, and 70 stations such as Beijing Tanghekou and Tianjin Dagang reached or exceeded historical extremes.
Zhang Hengde, deputy director of the National Meteorological Center, said that this year's high temperature weather in the northern region is not particularly early from the start time, such as the end of May 2014 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Huanghuai and other places have experienced continuous high temperature weather.
Since mid-June this year, the influence of high temperature processes in North China, Huanghuai and other places has been relatively long and the intensity is obviously strong. Among them, from June 6 to 6, the high temperature weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other places was extremely extreme, long-lasting, and had a wide range of high temperatures above 21°C, which was the strongest high temperature process in June in North China in the past 24 years. In this process, the maximum daily temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, northern Shandong and other places reached 40 °C to 10 °C, with a maximum value of 6.40 °C, which appeared in Huairou District of Beijing and Tianjin Binhai New Area, with a total of 41 national stations breaking through historical extremes and 41 national stations breaking through the June extremes; for the first time since meteorological records at the station, the maximum temperature of the Beijing Observatory reached or exceeded 8 °C for three consecutive days (21.49°C on the 6nd, 3.40°C on the 22rd, and 41.1°C on the 23th).
forecast
Temperatures are expected to be high in most parts of July
Recently, China's weather is in the pattern of "south rain and north heat", how will the weather develop after entering July?
Jia Xiaolong introduced that it is expected that the main rainfall areas in the next ten days (July 7 to 4) are located in Huanghuai, Jianghan, Jianghuai, northern Jiangnan, Sichuan Basin, western and southern Yunnan, southeastern Tibet and other places, the cumulative precipitation is generally 13 mm to 50 mm, some areas are 90 mm to 100 mm, local more than 150 mm, the main process occurs from 200 to 6 and 8 to 10; In addition, there are many rainy weather in the eastern and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia, with cumulative precipitation of 13 mm to 40 mm and local precipitation of about 80 mm in some areas, and the strongest rainfall period is 100 to 4 days; In most of the above areas, precipitation is 5 to 2% higher than in the same period of the year.
It is expected that in July, parts of eastern Inner Mongolia, most of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, Anhui, northern Jiangxi, most of Hubei, northern Hunan, southeastern Chongqing, western Sichuan, central and eastern Guizhou, eastern Tibet, southern Qinghai, southwestern Xinjiang and other places will be 7 to 2%. The Songhua River, Nenjiang River, Liaohe River, Huaihe River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River may have heavier flood conditions. Precipitation in most other parts of the country is close to the same period of the year to less, among which the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia, western Hebei, Shanxi, north-central Shaanxi, northern Gansu, Ningxia and northeastern Xinjiang are 5 to 2% less.
There will also be several hot days in July. It is expected that from the 7th to the 5th, there will be high temperature weather of 7°C to 35°C in eastern North China, Fenwei Plain, northern Henan and northern Shandong, and the maximum daily temperature in some areas can reach 38°C to 39°C. From the 41th to the 8th, there will be obvious high temperature weather in southern North China, Fenwei Plain, northern Henan and other places. In addition, from the 9th to the 6th and the 7th to the 11th, there will also be high temperatures of 13°C to 35°C in the south of Jiangnan and South China.
It is expected that in July, the temperature in most parts of the country will be close to the same period of the year to high, among which the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia, western Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, north-central Shaanxi, northern Gansu, Ningxia, southern Fujian, Taiwan, Guangdong, most of Guangxi, Hainan, southwestern Sichuan, southern Guizhou, Yunnan, eastern Tibet and other places will be 7°C to 1°C higher. North China Huanghuai staged high temperature is obvious.
typhoon
One or two tropical cyclones will make landfall in July or significantly affect our country
After the end of "La Niña", "El Niño" events followed. As an unusually warm SST, the appearance of "El Niño" will disrupt the global climate. At yesterday's press conference, a reporter from the Beijing News asked whether the number of typhoons that have generated or affected China so far is not much, is this related to "El Niño"?
Jia Xiaolong introduced that in the first half of 2023, there were 3 tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, and the number was not much. However, the low number of typhoons is not directly related to "El Niño", "because when there is less typhoon generation in the first half of the year, there are both El Niño and La Niña years, and normal years are most." Compared with the usual year, there are currently fewer typhoons by one, which is within one standard deviation, which is not special. ”
"It is expected that after the subtropical high position moves northward in late July, tropical cyclone activity will usher in an active period." Jia Xiaolong said that in the middle of summer this year, it is expected that the number of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea will be 7 to 6, 9.9 in the same period of the year, of which 4 to 3 will land in China, compared with 5.4 in the same period of the year. The westbound and northwest movements of midsummer tropical cyclones may affect the coastal areas of South China and Southeast China.
In July, 7 to 2 tropical cyclones are expected to form in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea, which is close to the same period of the year to the low number; Among them, 4 or 1 landed or significantly affected the south or southeast coast of China. The South and Southeast China coasts pay attention to the adverse effects of tropical cyclones.
prompt
It is recommended that North China and other places carry out artificial rainfall in a timely manner
According to the climate trend forecast, Jia Xiaolong pointed out that the phased heavy precipitation in Northeast China, Central and Northern East China, Central China, Southwest China, Southwest Northwest China and southwest Xinjiang in July may cause secondary disasters such as urban waterlogging, flash floods, landslides, and debris flows, and the risk of strong convective weather disasters is high, and the middle and lower reaches of the Songhua River, Nenjiang River, Liaohe River, Huaihe River and Yangtze River may have heavier flood conditions. It is recommended that relevant departments do a good job in flood prevention, lightning prevention and hail prevention, strengthen the inspection and investigation of hidden danger points, promptly eliminate stagnant water in the field, and take preventive and response measures in engineering construction, transportation, power supply, communication guarantee, etc.
The weather is hot, and North China, Huanghuai and other places need to guard against the adverse effects of high temperatures. Inner Mongolia central and western China, North China, Northeast China, Central China, Southwest East, Xinjiang and other places have a high risk of periodic high temperature heat wave, it is recommended to do a good job in heat prevention and cooling, power dispatching, outdoor construction safety and other countermeasures, especially pay attention to protect the health of outdoor workers and the infirm, prevent high temperature hazards. Since July is the summer vacation, the public's demand for outdoor travel has increased, it is recommended to pay attention to children's wading safety education and beware of drowning incidents.
North China, north-central China and northern Xinjiang have a high possibility of meteorological drought development, it is recommended to seize the favorable weather to carry out artificial rain enhancement operations, and do a good job in pond dam and reservoir water storage.
In addition, the temperature in central and western Inner Mongolia, northern China, eastern Xinjiang and other places is high, the precipitation is low, and the forest and grassland fire risk level is high, it is recommended to prepare for defense work and countermeasures.
■ Related news
The temperature in some areas of Hebei may exceed 40 °C
According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, from this week, there will be continuous high temperature weather in North China, Huanghuai and other places, the maximum daily temperature in parts of central and southern Hebei, northern Henan and northern Shanxi can reach 40 °C or above, and the maximum temperature in northeast Hebei and southwest Liaoning will be close to or break through the extreme value of the same period in history.
Affected by continuous high temperature weather, outdoor activities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Luyu and other places are prone to heat stroke or heat stroke, please take precautionary measures.
From now until the 10th, the maximum temperature in many places is 37°C to 39°C
According to forecasts, from July 7 to 5, the daily maximum temperature in central and southern Beijing, Tianjin, most of Hebei, north-central Henan, central and western Shandong, southwestern Liaoning, and Shaanxi Guanxi will be 10 °C to 37 °C, of which the daily maximum temperature in parts of central and southern Hebei, northern Henan and northern Shanxi can reach 39 °C or above, and northeastern Hebei and southwestern Liaoning will approach or break through the extreme values of the same period in history. The highest temperature and maximum impact of this process occurred from the 40th to the 5th.
From July 7 to 8, under the influence of rainfall and weak cold air, the high temperature range decreased, and the high temperature in Beijing, Tianjin, northern Hebei, southwestern Liaoning and other places basically ended, but the high temperature continued in central and southern Hebei, north-central Henan, eastern and western Shanxi.
In addition, from July 7 to 4, there will also be phased high temperature weather in the Sichuan Basin, Jiangnan and South China, including the maximum daily temperature of 11 °C to 6 °C in central Hunan, central Jiangxi, Fujian, central and southern Zhejiang from 7 to 11 and 12 to 37.
This time the high temperature lasted longer
Since June, North China, Huanghuai and other places have had frequent high temperature weather and five consecutive high temperature weather processes, of which June 6 to 5 is the strongest high temperature process this year. The intensity of the high temperature process in North China and Huanghuai is comparable to that from June 6 to 21, but the duration of the process is longer, and the affected area of high temperature of 24°C and above is more southerly than the last time.
Meteorological experts suggest that during the period of high temperature influence, the public should minimize the time for outdoor activities, and please replenish water in time for outdoor operations, and do a good job of sun protection and heat protection measures; During the surge in electricity demand during high temperature weather, it is necessary to be vigilant against fires caused by excessive power load, and pay attention to the safety of wildfire and strengthen fire management.
In addition, some areas in central and southern Hebei and some areas such as Beijing and Tianjin have medium and high risks of agricultural drought, it is recommended to irrigate in time to increase moisture and preserve seedlings, hoe and spray foliar fertilizer in cultivation to improve drought resistance; Early rice in eastern Jiangnan and eastern South China has the risk of high temperature forced ripening, it is recommended to spray and fertilize in time, harvest and dry mature early rice in a timely manner, and do a good job in field management of one-season rice and late rice.
(Beijing News reporter Wang Jingxi)