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Wagner's boss was not the protagonist of Saturday's uprising. It was the tool. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that other instances of power would come to his aid. At least one high-ranking Russian general had prior knowledge of Evgeny Prigozhin's plans to rebel against Russia's military leadership.

The New York Times assures that the general who until January was the general in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, close to Wagner's leader, knew in advance the plans of last weekend's mutiny. The source is the US intelligence services, which believe that Prigozhin had more support within the Armed Forces. For some reason these supporters did not step forward.

If General Surovikin was involved in last weekend's events, it would be the latest sign of the infighting that has manifested itself in Russia's military leadership since the beginning of Putin's war in Ukraine. Depending on the moves the Russian president makes from now on, it will be clear whether Putin also believes that General Surovikin helped Prigozhin. And how it should respond for it taking into account the delicate moment that the Russian front is experiencing with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Judging by his latest statements, Putin seems intent on blaming the mutiny solely on Prigozhin. At least for now.

Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped bolster defenses on the battle lines after Ukraine's counteroffensive last year. The Wagner uprising and its advance - halted by an agreement forged by Belarus' president - have posed the crudest challenge to Putin's power in his 23 years in charge of the country.

In a country where people are currently going to jail for 'discrediting' the army, Prigozhin managed to seize a major Russian military center and launch an armed march on Moscow. That it survived the launch surely responds to the practicality of Putin, who does not want internal fighting to weaken the Russian front in Ukraine. But the fact that Prigozhin is alive also confirms that he has some kind of support in the military leadership, specifically the sector most unhappy with the military performance at the front.

CHANGE OF COURSE

Putin has always surrounded himself with absolutely loyal commanders, who are not always the most competent. In a frustrating situation such as the disappointing progress of the invasion of Ukraine, more voices may arise within each establishment calling for a change of course. Without challenging the president but even threatening with force the position of people he trusts. General Surovikin and Prigozhin have clashed with Shoigu and General Gerasimov over tactics used in Ukraine, not very successful to date.

Surovikin represents a faction of hardline generals in favor of using the crudest tactics against Ukrainians, just as in Syria. Putin's inner circle maintains a program of maximums that includes taking Kiev but at the same time an approach of attrition in the hope that the solid Ukrainian response and the support it receives from the West will falter in the medium term.

The Russian president said Monday he allowed Saturday's aborted mutiny to continue for several hours to avoid bloodshed, while the head of the Wagner mercenary group that led the uprising said he never intended to topple the government. One of Prigozhin's main demands was that Shoigu be fired. Surovikin, who commanded the Russian front from autumn until last January, could be the great beneficiary. Now it plays a subordinate or defense leadership role. The demotion of General Surovikin was widely seen as a blow to Prigozhin.

If Prigozhin trusted Surovikin's public support, he was mistaken. The general spoke out against the rebellion as soon as it became public on Friday, in a video that urged Russian troops in Ukraine to hold their positions and not join the uprising: "The enemy is waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country." He turned his back on him despite the fact that the relationship between the two is very close. Prigozhin collaborated with General Surovikin during Russia's successful military intervention in Syria and has described him as the most capable commander in the Russian army.

Both Putin and the media have taken pains to point out that the mutineers did not find support in the security forces or among the people. Prigozhin was last seen Saturday night smiling and high-fives with Rostov's neighbors from the back of an SUV: Russians from Russia's medium-sized capital taking selfies with a coup plotter. Now the intelligence services suggest that Prigozhin, in addition to a certain sympathy on the street, also had support within the system.

Perhaps no one raised removing Putin from power, but there seem to have been a few people who agreed with Prigozhin that it was necessary to relieve Shoigu and General Gerasimov. Even if it was forcing the hand of the Kremlin. Precisely because Prigozhin is close to Surovikin, the general was first head of the Russian forces in Ukraine and then went on to supervise the supply of ammunition and resources to Wagner. As Andrei Soldatov, a journalist and writer specializing in security forces and the Russian army, reminds EL MUNDO, Surovikin is an undervalued figure from outside Russia: "Surovikin is a general who is highly respected by the army, and many generals know him personally because of his military history."

The Kremlin, asked if it is true that the Russian general knew in advance about the mutiny aborted by mercenaries on Saturday, said only that there is "a lot of speculation" after the events. U.S. officials also told the Times that there are indications that other Russian generals may also have supported Prigozhin's attempt to forcibly change the top defense ministry.

There are other signs of conflicting loyalties at the top of the ladder. Another Russian general, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, made his own video appeal, calling any action against the Russian state a "stab in the back of the country and the president." But hours later, he appeared in another video, chatting with Prigozhin in the Russian city of Rostov, where Wagner's fighters seized military installations.

"Russia is much less safe than before invading Ukraine," Timothy Snyder explained after the weekend's events: "No one in any Russian city was seen spontaneously expressing personal support for Putin, let alone anyone taking any kind of personal risk on behalf of his regime. Some Russians are ready to be ruled by a different exploitative regime, they simply take it for granted that they will be ruled by the gangster who has the most weapons, and they will go about their daily lives regardless of who that gangster is."

  • Wagner Group
  • Russia
  • Vladimir Putin
  • Ukraine

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