Beyond the largest order in history for 500 medium-haul A320s for the Indian airline IndiGo, intentions and confirmations of orders for long-haul aircraft accumulated, albeit in much more modest proportions, on the occasion of the Paris Air Show.

In this strategic segment for aircraft manufacturers because more profitable than medium-haul, Airbus could boast of having placed since the opening of the show Monday 52 A350 and 20 A330neo, Boeing claiming 30 copies of the 787 Dreamliner and 10 of its future 777X, whose first deliveries will occur in 2025.

This is without counting on the orders placed in March, and that remain to be finalized, from Saudi companies Riyadh Air and Saudi for 78 Dreamliners and 43 additional options.

According to the specialized firm Cirium, signs of recovery appeared in mid-2022 and the rental rates of wide-body aircraft with lessors rose by 15% in the first quarter of 2023, testifying to the crying need of airlines to have the capacity to respond to the recovery of international air traffic.

Long-distance routes, long penalized by health restrictions imposed by countries during the pandemic, have been slower to recover than medium-haul flights but international traffic returned in April to 84% of its pre-crisis level, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Over the next 20 years, Airbus forecasts a need for 8,220 new wide-body aircraft, or 20% of the total new aircraft to be delivered, an estimate similar to that of its competitor Boeing.

© Juliette MICHEL / AFP

"The market is picking up and everyone wants to get involved," Airbus executive chairman Guillaume Faury said.

This renewed appetite for large aircraft is explained "for reasons of fleet renewal or aggressive development strategy such as Turkish Airlines," says Alain Guillot, of AlixPartners.

In the first case, the American company United Airlines is discussing an order that could go up to 50 long-haul aircraft, according to Cirium.

Turkish Airlines, which wants to position Istanbul as a "hub" like Gulf airlines with Doha or Dubai, is in talks to buy 200 wide-body aircraft, as well as 400 medium-haul aircraft, announced its president Ahmet Bolat in early June.

Increased throughput

Despite production problems on the 787, which led Boeing to suspend deliveries for nearly 15 months in 2021-2022, the aircraft manufacturer expects to deliver "between 70 and 80" this year.

To meet demand, Boeing plans to increase from a rate of 5 aircraft per month to 10 by 2025-2026. Even if it means going further?

The Seattle giant produced 14 a month before the pandemic, recalls Stan Deal, head of Boeing's commercial aircraft division.

"The orders are very strong. If we consider that this is a long-term trend, we will take the necessary measures" to further increase the pace," he said.

Airbus has also planned an increase in its rates, that of the A350 being set to go from 5 aircraft per month to 9 monthly in 2025.

"We will already do this and then we will see," says Christian Scherer, commercial director of the European aircraft manufacturer, who "would not be surprised" if the question of additional increases in rates was raised.

Analyst Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, is more cautious about a resurrection of the widebody market.

"The pandemic has reminded everyone that +small is beautiful+ or at least much less risky," he said, pointing to the "impressive capabilities of new single-aisle aircraft" with long range such as the A321 LR and XLR.

© JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP

The XLR, which is scheduled to enter service in 2024, will be able to carry up to 244 passengers over 8,700 km, distances previously reserved for wide-body aircraft. It has already sold 560 copies, according to Airbus.

© 2023 AFP