Welcome, we will maintain our favorite habit and meet again with Hassan Beltagy and Ahmed Walid, two of the brightest Arab minds in football analysis, and a new episode of the "Pre-War" series to talk about their expectations for this year's Champions League final, and try to clash with the room elephant with the famous English expression: "Has Guardiola and Manchester City already won the game, or is football another surprise for us?"
We remind you that Hassan Beltagy is the former academy coach at Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain, and a former member of the German national team's analysis team, and is currently starting his coaching career at tennis club Borussia Berlin in the German fourth division, while Ahmed Walid occupies the position of tactical editor at the famous site "The Athletic", and writes several weekly reports and analyzes on various technical details, such as the one we will discuss today.
You can follow the past episodes of this series via the attached links (1) (2). Now, let's get started because the duo has a lot to say.
Ahmed Walid, blogger and tactical analyst (right), and Hassan Beltagy, former academy coach at Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain, and a former member of the German national team's analysis team. (Social Media)
After welcoming and thanking for the renewed meeting, we ask our first question – expected – about expectations. Did you expect at least two or one of the finalists? And why?
Hassan surprises us by saying that he expected City to cross Bayern Munich even before Nagelzmann was ousted from the technical seat, while confirming that Tuchel prepared well for the game and was a stronger candidate than his predecessor against the Catalans.
"There are two paths, the first is City's trajectory and since Real Madrid were on their way it's hard to expect anything. I saw City as the better team, and I was sure they had a big game against the Merengue even if the latter won in the end.
In the second track Inter was the biggest surprise for me. In every game I expected his opponents, whether Milan or Benfica to win before him. Inter are a good team but I thought the rest were better and, frankly, I expected Napoli to reach the final because all their opponents in this path were within reach."
Walid also predicted City's arrival, and the reason for predicting a watershed moment in the season: the return match against Leipzig in the Champions League and a big win with seven clean sheets.
Albert Sambi Lukonga (left) of Crystal Palace faces Manchester City's Bernardo Silva during the Premier League match between Crystal Palace and Manchester City. (Getty Images)
Before that match, City had had a problem with the Crystal Palace pressure system in the league match, when both Jeffrey Schlupp and Sambi Luconga controlled the attacking depth dual, Bernardo Silva and Gundogan, in a man-to-man system, to try to disrupt City's progress with the ball, and then Guardiola decided to rely on the dual axis, Stones and Rodri, to carry the ball and advance it, and the goal came from a game associated with that idea.
"In my opinion, that was the stage where City reached the ability to win even without playing the game they preferred, an advantage they were sorely lacking in crucial Champions League games.
As for the second track, I didn't imagine a particular team in the final; everyone focuses on the age of the Inter team, and its lack of sufficient quality in some positions, but what is not said enough is the fact that its players are seasoned and experienced, and they work under a coach who specializes in cup matches."
"In my opinion, if the two teams were to play seven games for the cup, like in NBA games, City would definitely win the title, but in just one game Inzaghi could surprise City."
Well, that begs us to the question: What do you think of each team's journey in the tournament in a nutshell?
Although Musiala and Gnabry's moves were causing City a number of problems, the defensive quartet of Akanji, Stones, Diache and Ake, led by Rodri, were handling the speed and skills of Bayern's attackers with wisdom and strength. (Getty Images)
Walid continues his answer to the same approach, simply because City's tactical problems and advantages in the league were similar to their problems and advantages in the Champions League.
"City went through the group stage without major problems, except perhaps unable to penetrate Dortmund, which is similar to what was happening in some league games, but against Leipzig the most important thing that brought them victory in the return leg was the exceptional pressing style that the Germans were unable to keep up with during possession. Of course, the result is telling.
Something similar was repeated against Bayern, after Guardiola changed the pressure pattern in the second half of the first leg the match practically ended, although Bayern was playing a good game, and the movements of Musiala and Gnabry caused City a number of problems, but even in the difficult moments of the game, the defensive quartet, Akanji, Stones, Diache and Ake, led by the integrated Rodri, were winning the most difficult duos and dealing with the speeds and skills of Bayern's attackers with wisdom and strength at the same time, and in my opinion they are the real heroes of the season.
In fact, I chose Aki as City's Unknown Soldier this season in The Athletic's vote, and I see his steady improvement since the end of the World Cup as a decisive factor in Manchester City's season.
Thomas Tuchel (left) Bayern Munich coach. (Getty Images)
The second game was not one of City's best games in the second half of the season; Tuchel prepared his team well and caused a lot of problems for City, but Haaland's presence in such games gives City the ability to score in transitions, another advantage that City did not have so effective in the past, but all of this does not compare to City's presentation against the defending champions in the return leg, which may be the best game I have seen for the team under Guardiola. In short, everything was done exactly as they wanted!"
Walid, despite being a long-time Manchester United fan, can talk about City Guardiola for days, and the abbreviation does not seem to be one of the things he is good at, and here Hassan intervenes by talking about Inter's journey in the competition:
"We can think of Inter reaching the final as a difficult birth. Inter go into the game with exceptional motivation and calmer nerves, simply because no one will blame them for losing from what many consider to be Europe's best teams right now.
Most importantly, the team's weapons, while few, are difficult to stop. A good number of games ended with long shots from Mkhitaryan or Hakan, with simple tactical sentences that overloaded one of the parties to clear space in front of the box in preparation for the shot. Also set pieces had a big role in finishing off Benfica in the first leg and making it difficult to return to him. These are weapons that are difficult to predict or stop, if you add to that Lautaro Lautaro's great technical condition since the World Cup, unlike his condition during the World Cup itself, it will not be impossible to surprise InterCity, especially since once they lead in the result we will have another game.
في الوقت ذاته، لم يقابل إنتر أي فريق يقترب من مستوى سيتي في البطولة، ربما باستثناء بايرن الذي تفوَّق عليه تكتيكيا في مجموع المباراتين بقيادة ناغلزمان المُقال".
بمناسبة "المباراة الأخرى" التي سنصبح أمامها بمجرد تقدم إنتر.. هل تتوقعان أن تنحصر أغلب أوقات المباراة في مرحلة تكتيكية واحدة؛ دفاع متأخر من إنتر مقابل تحضير في الثلث الأخير من سيتي؟
يرى أحمد وليد أن سيتي أصبح قادرا على إيذاء خصومه بسرعة هالاند في التحولات كما أشار بيب أكثر من مرة في المؤتمرات الصحفية السابقة. (رويترز)
"السؤال الحقيقي هو: لماذا قد يتوقع أي شخص أن يركن إنتر للدفاع أصلا؟!".
يبدو أن حسن مصمم على مفاجأتنا بإجاباته اليوم. نطلب المزيد من التوضيح.
"دعنا نعد لمباراة إنتر وليفربول في النسخة الماضية من البطولة نفسها؛ المباراة لُعبت بالكامل في مرحلة واحدة فعلا، ولكنها كانت نقيض ما يتوقعه الكثيرون، الفريقان استمرا في الضغط العالي طوال التسعين دقيقة تقريبا، وأتوقع مباراة مشابهة.
فكِّر في الأمر؛ لم يُعانِ سيتي طوال الموسم مثلما عانى في مباراتي أرسنال ونيوكاسل بالدور الأول من البريميرليغ هذا الموسم. كان هذا لسبب واضح بسيط؛ اعتماد الفريقين على الضغط العالي المنظم طوال المباراة، وبأنماط بها قدر من المخاطرة المحسوبة تميل أحيانا إلى رقابة رجل لرجل، وهي تقنية يجيدها إنتر إنزاغي بشدة، فلماذا لا يفاجئ سيتي بيب بالفكرة ذاتها، خاصة أنه لا يملك ما يخسره؟!
الأهم أن إنتر يُجيد مراحل البناء والخروج بالكرة ويملك العديد من الأفكار والتنويعات التي تصعب مهمة الضغط على سيتي؛ أحيانا يخرج باستوني للطرف وكأنه ظهير ثم يُستخدم لسياقة الكرة للأمام، وفي أحيان أخرى يهبط لاعب المحور -غالبا هاكان- ليتحول خط الدفاع الثلاثي إلى رباعي، وهذا يمنحهم لاعبا إضافيا حرا، بالإضافة إلى قدرات كلٍّ من دجيكو ولاوتارو على استلام التمريرات العمودية تحت ضغط".
Walid partially agrees with Hassan here; he realizes that the most frequent stage in the match may be City's attempts to penetrate the Inter bloc, but he does not think that the match will be limited to it, and adds to it the stage of building play at Inter versus City's pressure, pointing to the intelligence of Haaland and Grelic in pressure, specifically the first, which may be explained by his playing for Salzburg and Dortmund in the past, and Hassan also agrees in the fact that Inter has great tactical variations in building forms and patterns, and also believes that transformations will have a role In the game, especially since it will not be one-sided, because City are able to hurt their opponents quickly Haaland in transitions as Pep has pointed out more than once in previous press conferences.
And now, with the most important expectation, and the surprise that was repeated until it was no longer a surprise in the first place. Will Pep over-prepare, as legend goes, end up making an obvious mistake as has happened in many Champions League games in the past, and let it be the 3-2-2-3 he relied on throughout the second half of the season?
Pep Guardiola (Reuters)
Walid doesn't think so, he thinks City have reached a degree of stability, an exceptional technical condition that makes the opposite closer; Pep will think long before changing anything.
"I think Guardiola will start pressing the same with a 4-4-2 without the ball, which he applied in the most successful game of the season. The intensity or pattern of pressure may change depending on which player wants to catch or release in the opponent's defense, but generally I don't expect pressure surprises.
As for the ball, there is a small amount of fluidity that Guardiola uses in some games; the overall structure is 3-2-2-3 or 3-2-4-1, but Gundogan may prepare for relegation and participate in building play from the back, or bring Stones into the defensive line and switch to a 4-2-3-1 as he did against Arsenal, but again, there is no expectation of a radical change in structure.
Hassan surprises us – again – by expecting Pep to change the tactical drawing, and insists that this will not be a surprise, for the simple and obvious reason that he did it against all the teams that play with a three-way defence.
"The main change expected is that Guardiola will sacrifice one of the midfielders, let it be Stones, for example, to account for the addition of Julian Alvarez in attack with Haaland, to turn the shape into a 3-2-3-2, for example, with Gundogan next to Rodri in front of the three defenders, led by De Bruyne and the two wingers, and then an attacking duo of the Norwegian and the Argentine."
Pep Guardiola and Julian Alvarez (Reuters)
The question is why would Babe do that?
"Because that's what he did against Tottenham, against Bournemouth, against most of the teams he faced and they were playing with a back three; it helps him to install the opponents' defence in late positions, and prevent them from going out to hunt De Bruyne or Gundogan early, both of which are not good at being physically trapped.
I would also like to add that this would not be a surprise. Frankly, I'm trying to pre-empt the voices that will come out as soon as the formation is announced, saying that Pep has disrupted his system, invented a new invention, or composed a new tactical drawing. On the contrary, this is to be expected because this is what he has done previously in similar situations, in addition to the fact that he is constantly changing throughout the season. Most people only notice it when he loses!"
Does that make this the best version you've seen for Manchester City under Guardiola? If not, what is it?
Walid's eyes shine fiercely as if he was waiting for this question.
"Well, let's say first there have been three different versions of City Guardiola since he arrived in 2016; the first was between 2017-2019, and the reliance at that time was on a 4-3-3 with De Bruyne and David Silva as midfielders, and it relied on compound games on the periphery to get Sterling and Sane to the line, and Agüero's permanent presence inside the area. In the defensive stages, this version was not in the best shape.
The second edition was after the decline in reliance on Aguero and the decentralization of attack. In my opinion, this was the most enjoyable offensive version of a team I had seen; the dynamism and movement were very exciting, between Cancelo's depth shifts, reliance on a dummy striker, the variety of winger roles, extreme flexibility in attacking styles from game to game, to the point that Gundogan had a large tally of goals for the midfielder, and finally, because that version was also coherent defensively with the arrival of Diach and the development of Stones to the expected level.
Guardiola reacted to Sergio Agüero after being replaced by Ilkay Gundogan during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal 2020. (Getty Images)
These two editions created chances and scored goals prolifically in most situations, but they didn't have the defensive solidity and strength of the current version without the ball. So I see that the current version is able to outperform any previous version, even if it is not the most enjoyable in my view. The strange goals that this team conceived, especially at crucial moments, greatly reduced their ability to achieve and win titles. Now with a defensive quartet of monsters they can withstand the pressure in these moments, and pass the team in the offensive storms that their opponents sometimes launch, and this is what gives them the advantage in those games, not only on the technical level and one-on-one struggles, but on the mental and psychological level as well, because they prevent the collapse of the team indirectly."
Hasan agrees adding an important part:
"The current version is the most tactical version of Guardiola since the beginning of his career, which can be summed up as safety as priority, ahead of risk considerations and the desire to advance quickly and gain ground over the opposition. Walid describes it as a "robotic" and "effective" version, and I completely agree with him. Past editions were certainly more enjoyable, but the current version is more sophisticated, more capable of winning titles, and generally Pep's tactical development has always been linked to his opponents; the more they develop, the more he tries to outperform them, which is why he continues.
Pep signs the world's best players and then asks them simple, rudimentary tasks based on initial ball skills. That's what makes him able to excel at the basics."
At that moment, Walid intervenes, setting an example for Jack Grealish, a man who is now highly acclaimed, but at the same time presenting a version of himself that has nothing to do with Aston Villa's; Grealish is no longer the temperamental maestro who dribbles however he wants, carries the ball forward and risks almost impossible shots, on the contrary, he has become a player who is very committed to specific tasks limited to the duties of his position within the general tactical context, and performs them efficiently, consistently and consistently.
This brings us to the final question: does all of the above mean that Pep has already won the title?
Simone Inzaghi (Anadolu)
"Inzaghi is not a young coach, he is good at playing against teams that prefer possession stages. In my opinion, Pep's main problem will be how to maintain his defensive balance with an attacking duo to face Inter's defensive trio."
Walid agrees with Hassan:
"Remember when De Bruyne came out injured in the Chelsea final? That's why I don't believe in expectations in games like this. Guardiola wants to win the Champions League and that's clear, but I don't believe in zero-sum equations in these matters. I don't believe in the duality of failure and success, the same goes for Arsenal this season by the way."
As usual, it was an enjoyable meeting with the pair, who agreed that the FA Cup final between City and United could help Inzaghi show some solutions, or add to his confusion ahead of the game.
These lines are written hours before kick-off, and Inzaghi is sure to deserve praise even if he loses, as will Guardiola.
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