No one expected it. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced on Monday (May 29th) early legislative elections for July, after a defeat of the Socialists in power against the conservatives in the municipal and regional elections.

"I took this decision in view of the results of yesterday's elections," he said in a televised address, as the legislative elections were due to be held at the end of the year. These elections will take place "on Sunday 23 July", i.e. during the Spanish six-month presidency of the European Council which begins on 1 July.

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In Sunday's election, the right-wing People's Party (PP) wrested important town halls from the Socialists, such as Valencia and Seville, the country's third and fourth largest cities. It has also strengthened in its two regional strongholds of Madrid and Murcia. In total, the PP won more than 7 million votes (31.5%), against 6.3 million (28.1%) for Pedro Sanchez's Socialist Party (PSOE).

Analysis of the results with Maria Elisa Alonso, political scientist and teacher-researcher at the University of Lorraine, specialist in Spain and Latin America.

France 24: How should Sunday's socialist debacle be interpreted?

Maria Elisa Alonso: It's really a change of political cycle in Spain. Everyone expected a defeat for the Socialist Party, but not as important. One wonders what criteria voters used to inflict such a defeat on the PSOE. Despite the increase in food prices due to the international context, the Spanish economy is doing well compared to other periods.

So the government was punished by the voters for something else. Or for his coalition with the radical left party Podemos, which is at the origin of quite controversial laws, such as the so-called "Sólo sí es sí" law [on the obligation of explicit sexual consent, editor's note] and that on the rights of transgenders, which has been very badly perceived within some feminist movements. Or for his agreements with the Basque party Bildu [political heir of the Batasuna party, banned in 2003 because considered the political branch of the Basque separatist organization ETA, editor's note], which displeased socialist voters.

Even though it was a regional and municipal election, it was national politics that took precedence in the eyes of voters to make their choice. This is a big defeat for the socialists, who must question themselves.

What was the Conservatives' strategy to mobilise their voters?

During the campaign, the conservative People's Party held a national discourse not only against Pedro Sanchez, but also against his coalition with Bildu. A controversy erupted over the presence of former ETA members on municipal lists – people who had served prison sentences, sometimes for murder – and the PP seized on it.

The PP also managed to stand out by taking into account the phenomena of drought and the problems that this caused for farmers. Finally, he managed to mobilise his former voters who had turned since 2015 to the liberal Ciudadanos party, which has completely disappeared today.

The strategy worked, as the PP won at least six of the ten regions so far led by the Socialists, such as Andalusia, the birthplace of the PSOE. This is quite symptomatic of the change of period. But if it wants to succeed in governing in certain regions, the PP will have no choice but to form a coalition with the far-right Vox.

How to explain the surprise calling of early parliamentary elections?

With this announcement, Pedro Sanchez caught everyone off guard, including his own party and the press. But the Spaniards are quite used to it, it's a new poker move on his part. And it's actually quite logical. In Sunday's elections, the PSOE lost almost every autonomous region and town hall it thought it would win, including the largest ones. If it had been necessary to wait until the general elections until December, Pedro Sanchez would have seen his leadership deteriorate for six months.

With early elections, Pedro Sanchez must say that he will recover the votes of some of the voters. On the one hand, PP voters are unhappy with future alliances with Vox. On the other, the voters of Podemos who have completely disappeared, given that the new political formation Sumar, which comes to replace Podemos, has not had time to structure itself. Pedro Sanchez hopes to take advantage of this weakening of the left to win back voters.

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