"We are coming to save this country from terrorism and refugees."
(Kılıçdaroğlu)
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is close to winning a new presidential term in Turkey according to most expectations, as he won a percentage slightly below the threshold of 50% necessary for direct victory in the first round of the elections held on May 14, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its allies won the parliamentary majority, while his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the secular Republican People's Party, received 44.9% of the vote, while the ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan received 5.17% of the vote.
After his positive result in the first round of the elections, Erdogan did not seek any significant change in his speech or the map of his alliances, but he was able to obtain the support of Sinan Ogan, the former presidential candidate of the "Ancestors" alliance, as the nationalist candidate saw in Erdogan the man most able to deal with some files that pose a national challenge, especially the file of Kurdish separatist groups, while Kılıçdaroğlu was able to obtain the support of Ümit Özdağ, head of the Victory Party. The right-wing nationalist, who formed the "grandparents" alliance from the beginning, as Özdağ saw in Kılıçdaroğlu the right man to deal with the issue of "deporting refugees and illegal immigrants from Syrians and Afghans," so that the country does not turn into "refugees", as he put it, as well as the Justice Party of the Ancestral Alliance announced its support for Kılıçdaroğlu.
Zafar Party leader Ümit Özdağ announced the support of Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman and six-party candidate Kemal #كليجدار Oglu in the second round of Turkey's presidential elections.
🗣 Özdağ, known for his right-wing anti-Arab and anti-immigrant stances, told a joint news conference with Kılıçdaroğlu: "I call on those who voted for us in ... pic.twitter.com/hh5FXolOk5
— Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) May 24, 2023
There is often a degree of confusion when we use traditional terms, such as right and left, to describe Turkey's political rivals. For example, it is the supposed "left" candidate Kılıçdaroğlu who prioritizes in his electoral platform the rough handling of the migration and refugee file, and his rhetoric is filled with racism and anti-immigrants, while the right-wing candidate Erdogan is the one who adopts a position in defense of refugees. This is a stark contrast to the traditional picture of left-right rivalry in the West, where the leftist candidate is usually the most welcoming and considerate of refugees and migrants, suggesting the complexity of Turkey's electoral landscape.
Although the left-wing candidate has been the anti-immigrant standard-bearer in previous years, most Turkish nationalists who are "naturally sensitive to immigrants" ultimately support Erdogan, led by the country's oldest and most important nationalist party, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) led by Devlet Bahceli, which has been in alliance with the AKP since 2015, and which received 5,480,10 votes, grabbing more than 50% of the vote bloc and <> percent. of the seats in parliament within the People's Alliance with the ruling party in the last elections.
In addition, hardline nationalist Sinan Oğan, a defector from the Nationalist movement, sided with Erdogan in the eventual run-off. It is true that the Victory Party, the most prominent member of the ancestral alliance supporting Ogan, announced that it was going down a different path and supported Kılıçdaroğlu, but it is not a party the size of the nationalist movement, as it received only one million and 590 thousand votes in the parliamentary elections and did not succeed in entering parliament, while Sinan Ogan obtained about two million and 800 thousand votes in the presidential elections.
This does not mean that it is possible to predict where the votes of those who elected Sinan Ogan will go easily, as this electoral bloc seems to have reservations about both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu, but a look at the overall situation reveals the attractiveness of Erdogan, who has an Islamist background, to many nationalists. The current elections have revealed how Turkey's nationalist movement has a significant position on the street, which is evident from the AKP's insistence on protecting its alliance with them, but also from the opposition Republican People's Party's keenness to ally with the dissidents of the nationalist movement, most notably Meral Aksener, the head of the Good Party, who won 9.7% of the vote and 43 seats in parliament.
Password
"Mr. Kamal, how is there any difference between you and these terrorists? They support you, you can't get up and tell them I don't need your support."
(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)
By many estimates, Erdogan's accusations that the opposition is backed by Kurdish separatist groups are popular and make the issue more important than voters' economic concerns. According to Mohammad Ali Kulat, head of polling firm MAK, "many voters see the opposition as lacking the intensity needed to confront terrorism." It is worth noting that many nationalists did not vote for the opposition Umma Alliance led by Kılıçdaroğlu because of the tacit support given to him by the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), the same observation that made him lean towards Erdogan and declare his support for him, as Kılıçdaroğlu cannot satisfy the nationalists because of his alliance with some Kurdish parties that adopt a separatist orientation that caused his share of the vote to increase in the southeast, and therefore the man had no choice but to escalate the rhetoric regarding refugees. and immigrants to gain any possible national votes.
Leaders of the HDP, which is implicitly allied with Kılıçdaroğlu in the presidential election, had spoken before the election about the possibility of releasing Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) who has been jailed for decades, as well as about the possibility of establishing local governance for Kurdish-majority areas. All this contributed to dissuading many nationalists from rallying around Kılıçdaroğlu, as Davutoglu broke many taboos in Turkish politics by allying himself with separatist parties, although he won many Kurdish votes in return.
On the other hand, President Erdogan seems more attractive to nationalists in terms of dealing with the file of armed groups and Kurdish separatist factions, as at the beginning of his rule he sided with political dealings with these parties and groups, but after many changes occurred due to the situation in northern Syria, the growing influence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party within the so-called "Syrian Democratic Forces", and the increasing reservations of a number of Turkish military and security institutions on the peace process with the PKK (which has already stopped in 2015); Erdogan's need for an alliance with the nationalists, and Erdogan returned to the same path that the Turkish state followed before him by adopting military solutions in the face of the intensification of Kurdish separatist attempts.
Erdogan is a supporter of nationalism
Erdogan has created bridges between conservatives and nationalists, forming a new nationalist discourse in which Islam occupies a central place in the public sphere alongside Turkish identity. (Anatolia)
"I am announcing here that I will send all the refugees home as soon as I am elected."
(Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)
By intensifying his campaign against Kurdish armed groups, Erdogan presents himself not only as an Islamist leader, but as a "conservative nationalist leader" who wants Turkey to take a prominent place on the world stage. Since the 2016 military coup attempt, Erdogan has become a nationalist leader as much as an Islamist, especially after allying himself with the oldest and largest nationalist party and allowing his men to occupy many important bureaucratic positions in the police and judiciary.
Erdogan has created bridges between conservatives and nationalists, forming a new nationalist discourse in which Islam occupies a central place in the public sphere alongside Turkish identity. Erdogan appears to advocate nationalism with a history longer than the narrow history of the last century alone, which has been reflected in the official media's interest in Ottoman and Seljuk history as both Turkish and Islamic. The AKP has also redefined the centrality of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the republic himself, as a nationalist symbol that could stretch a line between it and Erdogan.
Perhaps the most prominent thread that does not make Erdogan's visions completely coincide with the nationalist visions usually prevailing is his position on the issue of migrants and refugees, which he tried to play Kılıçdaroğlu, especially after the end of the first round of the elections, the opposition candidate began to identify with the far-right propaganda against immigrants, saying that Turkey has 10 million immigrants, and despite the tendency of many to solve the migrant crisis firmly, the hate speech that began to be issued by Kılıçdaroğlu contributed to the decline in his shares. in polls.
For his part, Erdogan has tried to offer the nationalist voter solutions to the issue of refugees and migrants without slipping into hate speech, in order to make him feel that he is aware of its economic impact and the widespread social discontent with the increasing number of refugees. These include the voluntary resettlement of refugees and the reopening of channels of communication with the regime of Bashar al-Assad to reach a comprehensive solution to the Syrian issue, and then the safe repatriation of refugees. Erdogan has succeeded in treating refugees as a problem that must be solved efficiently, without exuding racism, diminishing the rights of migrants, or treating them as a social threat, and some liberal opponents of Erdogan have even said that hate speech from the opposition has made Erdogan's version of nationalism appear more humane.
Meanwhile, the alliance between Erdogan and the MHP has only grown stronger and more harmoniously over the past years, especially since the MHP believes in the importance and centrality of Islam to Turkey, as well as the party's negative stance on liberal capitalism and foreign dependency, which is in line with Erdogan's vision regarding the independence of the Turkish economy and reducing dependence on the West.
The strong man in a time of turmoil
"Washington should encourage Erdogan's opponents to defeat him electorally, but not by encouraging coups."
(US President Joe Biden during his 2020 election campaign)
Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, has created distance between himself and a large segment of nationalists by supporting Kurdish extremist forces. A large current within the opposition coalition until March 1 argued that Kılılıçdar was not the right man because he is an Alevite and does not possess the nationalist charisma required to compete with Erdogan, and that someone more nationalist than left-wing social democracy would be needed to confront Erdogan from their point of view. Erdoğan has campaigned in the current election on the basis of religion and nationalism, Kılıçdaroğlu has run his campaign more akin to a form of liberalism that relates to nationalism only in terms of hatred of Arab and Afghan refugees, and the man has failed to recognize the Turkish voter's need for nationalism or charismatic leadership.
One of the key features of Erdogan's tenure in recent years has been his appearance as a statesman who has positioned Turkey on the stage of the world's major players and resisted the major powers in what he saw as his country's interest. This trait has made Erdogan attractive in the eyes of many nationalists, and according to a 2018 analytical article published by the American think tank "Hoover", Erdogan represents an extension of the strong Turkish state and a new symbol of it for a large segment of nationalists.
In addition, the clear desire of some Western countries to replace Erdogan, a desire expressed by US President Joe Biden himself during his election campaign, played a role in the reluctance of a large segment of nationalist voters to vote for the opposition and its leader, who calls for the restoration of stronger relations with the West, as nationalists usually see Western interventions as an explicit infringement on the will of the Turkish state. Also, as the far-right grows in Europe, some nationalists tend to strengthen ties with Russia and China at the expense of the West, known as Eurasian nationalists, including many in the ranks of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who emphasize Turkey's historical links with the Turks of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and southern Russia, at the expense of Turkey's conditional integration into Europe and NATO.
The narrative promoted by the Erdoğan government has already met with success over the past years, one that the world has entered into great chaos, and that a strict and consistent captain of the Turkish ship like Erdogan is able to prevent devastation similar to that of the Ottoman Empire at its end. Here, the file of the development of Turkish military industries during the era of Erdogan and the repeated military campaigns in northern Syria to confront the PKK emerge as clear steps that made it appear in harmony with the nationalism and militarism that once characterized Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, which explains the vision of many of the man as an extension of the founder of the republic, despite the great difference between them in their relationship with religion and their vision of the role of Islam in the public sphere.
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