ISTANBUL — Turkey is awaiting a run-off of the presidential elections at the end of May, to decide between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as neither of them received the required 50% + 1 of the vote.
In this report, we review the current political scene after the presidential and parliamentary elections held last Sunday, and compare them with the previous elections in 2018, to see how the votes of President Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) changed in front of the votes of opposition candidates and parties.
How did Erdogan's voices change between 2018 and 2023?
In the 2018 elections, President Erdogan received 52.59% or more than 26 million and 330 thousand, and was able to decide the first round in his favor, and while his votes have now increased to exceed 27 million and 88 thousand, his percentage has decreased to 49.51%.
This explains the increase in the total number of voters and the higher turnout within the country compared to the same year.
Why has Erdogan's percentage dropped below 50%?
For his part, the head of the "Orsam" Center for Turkish Studies, Ahmet Uysal, believes that this result is "a success for Erdogan in light of the consequences of the Corona virus and the war in Ukraine, as well as the earthquake that struck Turkey 3 months ago."
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Uysal said that "Erdogan is the leader and is the closest to winning in the second round, as he needs only 0.5%, despite the alliance of more than 10 opposition parties against him," noting that the biggest challenge is to increase the participation rate of supporters of each party.
On the other hand, Turkish writer and political analyst Faik Bulut said that Erdogan's percentage has decreased due to economic and human rights problems and the division of political currents (conservative nationalists, religious and left) among the candidates.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Bulut added that "this is a message from the people to Erdogan of the need to solve the problems of the economy and raise wages."
What is the weight of Kılıçdaroğlu's votes compared to those of opposition candidates in 2018?
In the first round, Kılıçdaroğlu received 44.88% as a single candidate for the (opposition) Umma Alliance, also with Kurdish support.
In 2018, the opposition competed for the presidency with 5 separate candidates, most notably Muharrem Ince of the then Republican People's Party, Meral Akşener of the Good Party, and Selahattin Demirtaş of the Peoples' Democratic Party (Kurds), with 30.64%, 7.29% and 8.40%, respectively.
Compared to 2018, it is clear that Kılıçdaroğlu's percentage is lower than the total percentage of opposition candidates in 2018, and he attributed this to the fact that "he was not a consensus candidate, even Aksener boycotted the alliance for a while."
"The opposition is now within a wider coalition, and they were expecting to even win the first round but couldn't, which frustrated them," Uysal said.
While analyst Bulut confirmed that Kılıçdaroğlu's votes rose in these elections because he is within the Nation Alliance, Erdogan also lost votes in the Black Sea region and central Anatolia.
Erdogan is 0.5% short to win a new term (Anatolia)
Did the opposition benefit by fielding a single candidate?
Uysal believes that Kılıçdaroğlu did the impossible to collect this percentage, and it is difficult to make up for this gap between him and Erdogan.
Bulut said the opposition had no other choice, but Meral Aksener's withdrawal and return left a negative impression, which affected Kılıçdaroğlu's votes, believing that if the opposition had put forward another candidate, he might have received more votes, such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Uysal agrees, arguing that Imamoglu was a better alternative, adding that Kılıçdaroğlu has imposed himself as an alternative, but he has an identity problem because he is an Alevi of Kurdish origin.
Bulut also stated that there is a 5.5 percent difference between Kılıçdaroğlu and Erdogan, and the opposition leader must evaluate the performance of his election campaign and the general mobilization of his supporters in order to win the run-off, as a segment of the base of parties allied with him boycotted the elections or did not vote for him.
What is the current distribution of seats between the parties?
The People's Alliance, which includes the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Nationalist Movement, the Welfare Again, and the Free Call (Huda Bar) (Kurds), won a majority in parliament with a total of 323 seats out of 600, including 268 for the AKP, 50 for the Nationalist Movement and 5 for Welfare Again, according to the latest statistics from the official Anadolu Agency.
In contrast, in the Umma Alliance, the CHP won 169 seats, including its allied Felicity, Future and Democracy and Progress (DIVA), while the Good Party alone won 43 seats.
As for the Labor and Freedom Alliance, the Green Left and Turkish Workers' Party won 61 and 4 seats, respectively.
Illustration of the proportions of parties within the new parliament (Al Jazeera Net)
How have the seats of these parties changed compared to 2018?
The seats of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Green Left (Kurds) parties, the latter participating in the previous elections under the name "Peoples' Democratic Movements", decreased while the seats of the Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Movement Party increased in 2023.
Regarding the increase in the seats of the nationalist movement, Uysal pointed out that votes from the AKP went to him, while Bulut attributed this to "the deep nationalist current in Turkey, which the AKP needs to reach the parliamentary majority."
As for the decline in seats for the Green Left, he explained that "they focused on leftist ideology instead of Kurdish identity and defended homosexuality; they lost votes from conservative Kurds," while Bulut attributed this to "putting forward unpopular candidates at the top of his lists and votes from his base going to the Republican people, so the latter's seats increased."
For his part, Uysal believes that "the Republican People's lost many seats because of putting forward candidates from right-wing parties allied with him on their lists for the candidacy of Kılıçdaroğlu, which affected the popularity of the party."
Why did the number of AKP seats decrease?
Regarding the decline in the PJD's seats, Uyssal said that "it is normal because their alliance (the public) maintained the majority, and votes from it went to the parties allied with it, but they remained within the bloc itself, and this is a successful strategy."
Bulut said the reason for the loss of these seats was "economic problems, corruption and low confidence in it."
Parliamentary votes in the states show that the AKP continues to control central Anatolia while the opposition controls the periphery (Anatolia)
Which parties entered parliament for the first time?
The Welfare Party, headed by Fatih Erbakan, son of the late Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, once again managed to enter parliament for the first time as a newly established conservative party, attributing this to its presence within the Jamhour coalition.
This was in contrast to the Felicity Party, which belongs to the same current and is allied with the opposition, which was unable to enter parliament in 2018.
On the left, the Turkish Workers' Party won parliamentary seats for the first time, which Bulut explained as "leftist votes in the western provinces of the PKK."