At the end of a long election night, while the Turks were worried about a sudden delay in voting data from the big cities, the third man in the presidential race found himself, Sunday, May 14, in the spotlight: the ultranationalist Sinan Ogan.

Neither Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor Kemal Kilicdaroglu managed to reach 50% of the vote in order to avoid a second round on 28 May. Sinan Ogan won 5.2 percent of the vote, a potentially crucial result in a hotly contested presidential race. This 55-year-old politician dreams of being a potential kingmaker.

"50 Shades of Nationalism"

A former academic with a master's degree in financial law, Sinan Ogan earned a doctorate in international relations and political science from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations before entering politics.

A former member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), he was elected to the Turkish parliament in his home region of Igdir in eastern Turkey in 2011. He left the party in 2017 when Devlet Bahceli, head of the MHP, gave his support to Erdogan's constitutional reform project to move towards a more presidential regime.

Along with other senior MHP officials, Sinan Ogan disagrees with abandoning the parliamentary system. Propelled to the head of this slingshot, former Interior Minister Meral Aksener created the Good Party (Iyi Party, in Turkish). Umit Ozdag also dissented to join the Good Party at first and then form the Victory Party (Zafer), a far-right and anti-immigrant party.

For his part, Sinan Ogan has not been affiliated to any party since his resignation from the MHP, but has chosen, for these elections, to join forces with Umit Ozdag. They thus formed the ultranationalist Ancestral Alliance (ATA). Aksener joined Kemal Kilicdaroglu's National Alliance, better known as the "Table of Six" for the six parties of a CHP-dominated group.

See also Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the "quiet force" that defies Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Despite their different alliances, the three ex-MHP have one thing in common: they draw on the ultra-nationalist base during an election period, in a country where the nationalist fiber is very deep-rooted.

"There are nearly fifty shades of nationalism in Turkey," says Guney Yildiz, an analyst specializing in research on Turkey. "Nationalists are everywhere: they can be secular conservative and even left-wing. This does not leave much political room for candidates who do not belong to this family.

A vote "that is not acquired"

In the aftermath of the first round, Sinan Ogan positioned himself as a kingmaker, setting his conditions to support one of the two candidates in the second round on May 28. In an interview with Reuters, he said that he could only support Kilicdaroglu if Kilicdaroglu agreed not to make any concessions to the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).

Although the HDP is not part of the "Table of Six" alliance it supported Kemal Kilicdaroglu's candidacy.

In the coming days, Sinan Ogan is due to meet the two leading candidates who have qualified for the second round. The alliance with Erdogan is seen as more obvious, as the Turkish president has allied himself with the far right since 2018. "Our chances in the second round are very, very high. Ogan now holds the key," a senior official with Erdogan's ruling AKP party told Reuters.

However, Guney Yildiz cautions that one should remain cautious and not overestimate the potential role of Sinan Ogan. "He won the reaction vote of voters who did not see themselves supporting one of the two [major] blocs. I'm not sure this is a vote of conviction for Sinan Ogan."

With a final score of 49.51% for Erdogan, some analysts also noted that Sinan Ogan's role in the second round had shifted from kingmaker to courtier, as the "sultan" of Turkish politics, in power for 20 years, has the wind in his sails.

" READ ALSO Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a position of strength before the second round of the presidential election

According to Jasper Mortimer, France 24's correspondent in Turkey, Erdogan has all the cards in hand to negotiate with Sinan Ogan. "Some of Sinan Ogan's voters will vote for Erdogan," he said live from Ankara. "The bottom line is that Erdogan clearly won. It is only 0.5% short of 50% of the vote. No one asks him [Sinan Ogan] for his support. Maybe Erdogan will offer him something, but he doesn't need it."

Playing the nationalism card

During his campaign, Kemal Kilicdaroglu delivered a message of openness. He promised a break with the measures of repression of freedoms and dissent, taken during the last decade of Turkish political domination by Erdogan.

Nevertheless, the political zeitgeist seems to favour a "purely Turkish" rhetoric. "The fact that Sinan Ogan won more than 5 percent of the vote underlines that hardline ultra-nationalism is alive and well in Turkey," political risk consultant Anthony Skinner told AFP. In total, the country's nationalists and ultra-nationalists won 22% of the seats in the Assembly.

Article adapted from its original English version by Assiya Hamza and Barbara Gabel.

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