Chinanews.com, May 5 -- The high-profile Turkish presidential election voting has ended, and the country's Supreme Election Council announced on the 15th that the current President Erdogan and his biggest opponent, Kemal Klıchdar Oulu, the candidate of the "national alliance" camp composed of six opposition parties, have less than 15% of the vote, and they will enter the second round of the runoff.

It was one of Turkey's most important elections in a century, and Erdogan's quest for re-election faces the toughest challenges. Who will win the presidential runoff on May 5 between him and Klechdar Oulu? Why is Turkey's election so much attention, and what impact will the final election result have on the region and the world?

On May 5, local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan voted at a polling station in Istanbul, Turkey.

The most important election in a century

The two will enter the runoff!

According to reports, Ahmet Yener, chairman of Turkey's Supreme Election Council, has just announced that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has temporarily received 49.51% of the vote, and his biggest rival Klıchdar Oulu has temporarily received 44.88% of the vote. "It has been decided to hold the second round of elections on Sunday, May 2023, 5," he said. ”

According to the Turkish Constitution, if no one receives more than half of the votes cast in the first round of the presidential election, the second ballot is held among the two candidates with the highest number of votes. The runoff date for the second round is 5 May.

It was also the first time since the 2014 presidential election that Erdogan did not win in the first round.

However, both he and Klıchdaroğlu said they were ready for the second round runoff.

In the early morning of the 15th, Erdogan told supporters gathered in Ankara, the capital of Turkey: "Although the final result has not yet been announced, our side is currently in the lead. ”

Erdogan later said: "If our people choose to have a second round of voting, we are equally welcome." ”

According to Politico, Klıchdal Ğlu said: "If our people think there should be a second round of elections, we will respect their ideas." We will definitely win in the second round... Erdogan did not win the majority of the vote as he expected ... In the next 15 days, we will fight for the rights, law and justice of the Turkish people. ”

Prior to this, both sides accused the other camp of publishing misleading information. Erdogan warned the opposition on social media not to replace public opinion. Opposition parties have questioned the results of the early count, with Klıchdar Oulu saying data he collected from polling stations showed he was in the lead.

On May 5, local time, Kemal Klıchdaroğlu, a candidate for the Turkish "National Alliance" camp, cast her vote at a polling station.

"Political Strongman" vs "Gandhi in Turkey"

Who will win?

In fact, the contest between Erdogan and Klıchdar Oğlu was a "-for-tat" situation before the vote, and was even hailed as the country's "most invigorated election since 2000."

Erdogan, who is seeking re-election, has been in politics for 20 years and is a charismatic leader who is considered Turkey's "political strongman." However, in February 2023, Turkey was hit by a major earthquake of magnitude 2 or higher, and post-earthquake recovery became a major issue for him.

In addition, Turkey faces high inflation and an increasing cost of living. This has also sparked domestic dissatisfaction with Erdogan, causing his support to decline.

Klıchdar Ğlu is Erdogan's main opponent in this campaign and is a candidate for the "National Alliance" camp of six opposition parties. Because he resembled Mahatma Gandhi and had a humble personality, he was known as the "Gandhi of Turkey".

According to Reuters, polls before the start of the campaign showed that the two candidates were indistinguishable, with Klıchdal Oulu leading only by a narrow margin.

Reuters commented that Erdogan's actual vote share is better than the poll forecast. When he addressed supporters, he also looked "very confident and scrappy."

However, it is worth noting that the "winner" of this election may not be either Erdogan or Klıchdar Oulu, but the third presidential candidate, Sinan Ogen.

Currently, ATA League candidate Ogan receives more than 5 percent of the vote. Analysts point out that the outcome of the second round of the runoff may depend on which candidate Ogen supports, and he will become the "kingmaker" in the runoff.

According to the Russian satellite network, on the 15th, Ogen issued a statement to the media: "We have reached the point where we can influence the election results, which is a success for us." The roadmap will be revealed in the coming days. We will not let the country fall into crisis, but will make decisions that are beneficial to the country. ”

On May 5, local time, voting in Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections began, and a woman came to the polling station to vote.

"One of the most significant political decisions"

Where is Turkey headed?

Reuters commented that the runoff of Turkey's next president will be one of the most significant political decisions in the country's history, and will also have a profound impact on Turkey and the world.

Different choices can mean different directions. Because Erdogan and Klıchdar Oulu do not have the same position on the treatment of the United States and European countries.

The New York Times pointed out that Erdogan has adhered to a non-aligned foreign policy for the past 20 years, which has often frustrated Western countries. For their part, the EU and the United States feel strongly that Erdogan's Turkey is "drifting away" from European values and norms.

Although Turkey is a member of NATO, it has also disagreed with other members on some issues during Erdogan's administration. Turkey, for example, opposed NATO's accession to the Kurdistan Workers' Party because Sweden supported it. This is also the main reason why Sweden has been unable to "join" the treaty.

Klıchdaroulğlu campaigned for a job expressing hope to ease Turkey's "isolation".

According to the Washington Post, Klıchdar Oulu said Turkey's relationship with the United States would be more "balanced" after his victory. If successful, closer relations will be established with NATO and the European Union.

It is precisely for this reason that the New York Times pointed out that if Erdogan loses the election, it may make Western countries "breathe a sigh of relief."

Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt said bluntly on the 12th: "We all want a less difficult Turkey." ”

Who will be Turkey's next president and whether Turkey will choose a new direction in the future will probably not be revealed until after May 5.

"The next two weeks will probably be the longest in Turkey's history," said the head of a consulting firm called Strategic Advisory Services.