Europe 1 with AFP / Photo credit: BURAK KARA / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP 17:51 p.m., May 14, 2023

This Sunday, on this day of the presidential election in Turkey, polling stations closed their doors in the late afternoon after seeing a huge crowd of voters. At stake is the choice of the thirteenth President of the Turkish Republic, who is celebrating his first century, and the future of the Head of State who hopes to stay in power against his adversary.

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Polling stations in Turkey closed late Sunday afternoon after seeing a huge crowd of voters come to choose between outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for two decades, and his Social Democratic rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Until the last minute - 17:00 (14:00 GMT) - ballot boxes continued to fill with large mustard-green envelopes deposited since 08:00 by voters who sometimes waited several hours in front of schools turned into polling stations. At stake: the choice of the thirteenth President of the Turkish Republic, who is celebrating his first century, and the future of the Head of State who hopes to stay in power against his adversary.

The winner must win a majority of 50% of the vote plus one, or face a second round on 28th May - the symbolic anniversary of the largest popular protest movement that shook the government in 2003. The 64 million voters also had to choose the 600 deputies who will sit in the unicameral parliament in Ankara. In 2018, during the last presidential election, the head of state won in the first round with more than 52.5% of the vote. A toss would already be a setback for him.

No prognosis

Erdogan has promised to respect the verdict of the ballot boxes, watched by hundreds of thousands of scrutineers from both sides and from which he has always derived his legitimacy. The Election Commission (YSK), kept under close surveillance by the police who block all traffic of cars and pedestrians, has not reported any incident at this stage. Arriving at midday at his polling station in Üsküdar, a conservative district on the Asian side of Istanbul, Erdogan wished "a profitable future for the country and Turkish democracy", stressing "the enthusiasm of voters" especially in areas affected by the earthquake of February 6 that killed at least 50,000 people.

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Appearing with tired features, he did not make the slightest prediction on the results, expected in the evening, and that he will wait for from Ankara, just like Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. Shortly before, the latter had been the first of the two to cast his ballot in Ankara: "We missed democracy," declared the Social Democrat, all smiles. "You will see, spring will return to this country, God willing, and it will last forever," he added, repeating one of his campaign slogans.

'Don't divide Turkey'

Voters were polarized between Islamic-conservative President Erdogan, 69, and Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, 74, head of the CHP, the secular party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of modern Turkey. "What matters is not to divide Turkey," said Recep Turktan, 67, as he waited outside his office in Üsküdar. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, is credited with a few points.

"The economy is not the priority, we have to start at the grassroots: restore human rights and democracy, regain our dignity," said Hande Tekay, 55, in Istanbul's upscale Sisli district. "To put it simply, we want the French revolution: Equality, liberty, fraternity, because in the last twenty years, all that has disappeared," added Ulvi Aminci, 58, blue jeans and tattoo on his hand. "I say 'continue' with Erdogan," implored Nurcan Soyer, headscarf, outside Erdogan's polling station.

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In the battered city of Antakya, the ancient Antioch (south) ruined by the earthquake, Mehmet Topaloglu arrived among the first: "We need change, that's enough". The wounds remain sharp three months after the tragedy: "Even before the earthquake my vote was defined, but with the earthquake it was confirmed," said Aylin Karakas, 23.

"Turkish Spring"

Kemal Kiliçdaroglu leads a united front of six parties from the nationalist right to the liberal centre-left. He also received the support of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, the country's third largest political force. Erdogan is presenting himself this time to a country worn out by an economic crisis, with a currency devalued by half in two years and inflation that exceeded 85% in the autumn. Faced with him, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu played the card of appeasement, promising the restoration of the rule of law and respect for institutions, battered over the last ten years by Erdogan's autocratic drift.

For political analyst Ahmet Insel, in exile in Paris, "Erdogan's defeat would show that we can get out of a well-established autocracy through the ballot box." A form of "Turkish Spring" that will be closely scrutinized abroad. Because Turkey, a member of NATO, enjoys a unique position between Europe and the Middle East, and is a major diplomatic player.