A general election will be held on the 9th in Thailand, where the military has been under strong influence since the coup d'état nine years ago. Opinion polls show that the largest opposition party in the opposition party of former Prime Minister Thaksin, who was ousted from power in a coup d'état, is the first party, and attention is focused on how far the opposition parties aiming for a change of government will increase their seats.
Thailand's first lower house of parliament elections in four years are scheduled to be held on the 4th, and the focus is on whether the military's influential government that has continued since the coup nine years ago will continue.
The election has divided the ruling party, and Prime Minister Prayuth, who led the coup as army commander, is aiming to join the new party and continue to serve as a candidate.
In response, the Pheu Thai Party, the largest opposition party in the opposition faction of former Prime Minister Thaksin, who was ousted from power in a coup d'état, is expanding its support by putting up Mr. Thaksin's second daughter, Petong Tan, as a candidate for prime minister with the aim of regaining power.
According to the latest opinion polls, the Pheu Thai Party has nearly 14% of the support and is in the lead position, followed by the opposition Forward Party, which attracts support from young people, which is rapidly increasing its support in the late stages of the election campaign.
However, with senators appointed under the military government joining the vote for the prime minister nomination in parliament after the election, there is growing interest in how far the opposition parties aiming for a change of government will increase their seats this time.
Voting will be held until 9 p.m. Japan time, and the vote will be counted on the same day, and a large number of votes are expected to be known as early as the evening of the 4th.
Ruling party divided, opposition side expanded support
In this election campaign, Prime Minister Prayuth joined a new party, the "Thai Unity and National Construction Party", in response to the decline in centripetal force within the largest ruling party, the Nation State Power Party, and the ruling party is divided.
Prime Minister Prayuth, who is aiming to succeed him, has emphasized his achievements in stabilizing the country and is said to have the support of traditional conservatives and corporate executives.
Instead of Prayuth, the Nation-State Power Party has nominated its leader, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit, as its candidate for prime minister.
On the other hand, the largest opposition party, the Pheu Thai Party, has been running an election campaign with three candidates for prime minister, including Mr. Thaksin's second daughter, Mr. Petong Tan.
The Pheu Thai Party has garnered support for generous policies aimed at rural areas and low-income groups, such as raising the minimum wage, and has mainly appealed for economic recovery in this election.
And the opposition "Forward Party" is catching up in the final stages.
With the aim of breaking away from existing politics, it has rapidly expanded its support, especially among young people.
Following in the footsteps of the New Future Party, which made a leap to become the third party in the last general election but was dissolved after the election, it maintains its support rating second only to the Pheu Thai Party in opinion polls.
They oppose the military's political involvement, and their movements are attracting attention.
Electoral system and prime ministerial nomination
This time, elections will be held in the lower house of parliament for 400 single-member constituencies and 100 proportional representation seats, for a total of 500 seats.
Each party can field up to three candidates for prime minister, and the prime minister is chosen by a vote of both members of the Senate and the House of Representatives from the candidates of the party that wins at least 3 seats in the general election.
The nomination of the prime minister after the general election will be decided by a vote of 25 senators appointed under the military government, in addition to the 500 members of the House of Representatives who will be re-elected, but many senators are expected to vote in favor of the military.
Therefore, in order for the opposition to form a government on its own, it must win a majority of 250 seats in the House of Representatives, a majority of 750 seats.
However, it seems difficult to form a government alone this time, and the focus will be on the future of coalition talks after the election.
Who is Prayuth?
Prayuth is a 69-year-old army veteran.
In 2014, as army commander, he led a military coup, after which he became prime minister of the interim government.
In the last general election in 2019, he was the prime ministerial candidate of the "Nation State Power Party", which aims to continue the military-led political system, and became the prime minister of the coalition government after the election.
However, the centripetal force within the "Nation State Power Party" has declined, and in January, Prayuth announced that he would join the new "Thai Unity National Construction Party" and is aiming to continue as a candidate for prime minister.
Who is Mr. Peetontan?
Peter Thanh, who is leading the campaign as a candidate for prime minister of the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, is 36.
The second daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin, she became the party's top advisor in 2021 after being involved in related projects at hotels owned by her family.
During the election campaign, she gave birth to her second child, a boy, on May 5.
Two days after giving birth, she held a press conference and announced that her eldest son had been nicknamed "Thaksin" after former Prime Minister Thaksin, which attracted a lot of attention.
He often comes out on top in polls asking who is the right person to be the next prime minister.
While he has led the election campaign as the face of the Pheu Thai Party, his political skills are considered unknown due to his lack of experience as a politician.
History of the Thaksin faction
In Thailand, forces supporting former Prime Minister Thaksin and those opposing him have continued to confront each other in a way that divides the country.
Former Prime Minister Thaksin became prime minister in 2001 after garnering support from rural villages and other areas left behind in economic development, but was ousted in a military coup d'état in 2006.
He was later sentenced to prison for corruption and has been living in de facto exile abroad to escape imprisonment.
Former Prime Minister Thaksin was forced to flee the country, but the Thaksin faction has infiltrated rural residents and low-income groups.
On the other hand, Thaksin announced his intention to return home after the election by posting on his social media account on May 5, "I decided to go home before my birthday in July and take care of my grandson.
By announcing his intention to return to Japan just before the election, it seems that he hopes to attract the support of the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party and regain power.