Is the BJP's loss in Karnataka a prelude to losing India's general election?

Highlights: The Karnataka state election is seen as a test of the popularity of political parties. The results came despite major efforts by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win the election. India's Prime Minister Naendra Modi himself stayed in the state for several weeks before the vote. The BJP has tried to appeal to Hindu voters in various ways, including outlawing halal meat and outlawing headscarves for female students in the south of the state. It has also been accused of being India's most corrupt government, especially after an official statement a year ago.

The Karnataka state election, in which Bharatiya Janata lost to the Congress Party, is seen as a test of the popularity of political parties and a barometer of what will be the case in India's general election in about a year.

New Delhi (Reuters) - Regional elections in the southern Indian state of Karnataka on Wednesday resulted in a landslide victory for India's Congress Party (APC) over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has ruled the state since 2019.

The results of the state legislature elections were announced on Saturday, with the Congress Party winning 136 seats in the 224-seat chamber and needing at least 113 seats to win the majority to form the next government in the state. The BJP won just 64 seats, after its leaders had expected it to win a majority of seats.

Polls conducted by channels, newspapers and think tanks after Wednesday's vote had unanimously agreed that the Congress Party would win a clear majority in this election, but BJP leaders ridiculed those predictions.

Huge effort

The results came despite major efforts by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win the election in the state of about 61 million. India's Prime Minister Naendra Modi himself stayed in the state for several weeks before the vote, addressing 19 public meetings and leading 6 election rallies.

This election campaign cost the state treasury about $25 million. At each meeting, Modi announced that his party would return to power with more seats than before.

The results of these regional elections are an indication of what might happen in India's May 2024 general election.

Rejecting the politics of hate

According to observers and analysts, the results of the recent elections reflect a clear rejection of the anti-Muslim policy pursued by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), headed by Modi himself.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said the results "confirm that the people of Karnatka hate the BJP's policy of hatred and hatred". Congress spokesman Pawan Khhira said: "The people of Karnataka have rejected the negative policies of the Bharatiya Janata Party."

These elections were originally between three parties: the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has been ruling since August 3, the Congress Party, and the secular Janata Dal Party, a local party with support in the south of the state.

Part of the Congress Party's celebration after preliminary election results in Karnataka state (Reuters)

Bharatiya Janata loses southern states

The loss of the Indian People's Party in Karnataka means a lot, because it has so far been unable to gain a foothold in southern Indian states including Karnataka, which he was accused of governing after the previous elections in 2019 "by buying the receivables of some MPs or in alliance with small parties" to form his government.

The government has also been accused of being India's most corrupt government, especially after an official statement by the Karnataka Contractors Association a year ago said the government was "taking a bribe at a rate of 40 per cent for state enterprises".

Tricks to attract Hindu voters

The BJP has tried to appeal to Hindu voters in various ways, including announcing the abolition of the 4% quota for Muslims in government jobs and school seats in the state since 1994, declaring that if he is re-elected, he will implement the Unified Personal Status Law (i.e., abolishing the Muslim Personal Status Law), and stating that he will implement the citizenship law in the state to drive out "intruders," a reference to Muslims.

The Bharatiya Janata government in Karnataka state has already raised the issue of headscarves to prevent veiled female students from studying and taking exams while wearing the hijab, which led to the exclusion of about 100,<> Muslim students in the state from taking exams last year.

Party leaders have also cracked down on halal meat, calling for it to be banned because, they say, Hindus are forced to eat certain meat, which benefits Muslim traders. Extreme Hindus have also been raising allegations that Muslims are pursuing a foreign-funded (Gulf) scheme to attract Hindu women to marry in order to increase the Muslim population and thus establish an Islamic government in India in the future.

The party also continued to wage war in memory of the great Indian freedom fighter Tipu Sultan, who was the first Muslim ruler to fight the English colonialists and was martyred fighting them in 1799, only after which power was restored in India.

The BJP has been erasing the memory of this king by fabricating lies that he was an enemy of the Hindus, that he had forced Hindus to convert to Islam by the sword and demolish their temples, and they have recently been promoting the saying that Tipu Sultan killed Hindus and not the English, even though the facts of his murder are recorded in documents and history.

The BJP has also enacted a law to prevent cow slaughter in the state on the grounds that the cow is sacred to Hindus, while slaughter is allowed in the adjacent state of Goa, which is also ruled by the Bharatiya Janata (BJP).

Hindu organizations affiliated with the party are also trying to seize mosques and shrines claiming that they were built on the ruins of Hindu temples that were demolished by Muslims during their long rule of the area.

Observers believe that the BJP government in the state was a failure and corrupt, with no choice but to resort to polarization on a sectarian basis.

Karnataka province is home to about 61 million people, 13% of whom are Muslims (Al Jazeera Net)

The Congress Party breaks its silence

For the first time in years, the Congress Party broke its silence on extremist Hindu organizations, declaring during its last election campaign that if it won and managed to govern in the state, it would ban the Hindu militia "Pajrang Dal" (i.e. the army of Bajrang, the legendary monkey god), prompting Modi to repeat in his speeches that the Congress party wants to imprison the monkey god Bajrang!

This time, the Congress benefited from two important factors, one of which was the frequent talk about the corruption of the BJP government.

The Congress party also benefited from its leader Rahul Gandhi's long journey from southern to northern India at the end of last year, reviving his party's contact with the masses and restoring a sense of trust between itself and the people.

The impact of the Karnataka elections on the upcoming elections

Elections will soon be held in several states, including Madhya Pradesh and Chatis Karah, and their results, together with the results of the Kranka state elections, will be a compass for the May 2024 general election, which is very important and a test for BJP at the central government level.

If the opposition parties unite and decide to nominate a unified candidate in each constituency, BJP will not be able to win. Observers say a victory for the Congress party in the state of Karnataka will encourage opposition parties to unite to defeat the Bharatiya Janata (BJP).