ISTANBUL — Days after threats to spread scandals on social media platforms, and a day after his campaign was halted due to what was said to be a health ailment, the head of Turkey's opposition Country Party and one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, came out at a press conference announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race, just three days before Sunday's general election.

Ince's decision came as a surprise to some observers because of his stubbornness and tough stance, while others downplayed his decision, attributing it to several factors that paved the way for him to withdraw from running for the presidency.

While Turkish President and public alliance candidate Recep Tayyip Erdogan lamented Ince's withdrawal, opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu invited him to join the "Six Table" alliance of Erdogan's opponents.

#محرم_اينجة withdrew from the presidential predecessor in #تركيا.
It seems that the pressure exerted on him (threatening him with scandalous recordings) was too great to face, even for a stubborn and confrontational person like him.
He did not invite his supporters to vote for anyone.
So I repeat what I wrote: most of his supporters may boycott or vote for Sinan Ogan (continued)

— Saeed Alhaj Said Elhaj (@saidelhaj) May 11, 2023

Muharrem Ince called on citizens to vote for the Balad party to enter parliament in parallel with the confirmation of his withdrawal from the presidential elections, justifying his decision by his desire not to leave room for the main opposition that nominated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu for the elections to hold him "responsible for their failure to face President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday morning," that is, after election day.

Ince's withdrawal a few days before the election raised questions about his impact on the electoral race, and who his supporters will vote in the presidential election, especially since he has not yet announced his support for any candidate.

Moral assassination

Ince stressed that the opposition could not "win in cooperation with Turkey's enemies. This is not going to happen, and I will withdraw so that they understand that," he said, referring to the informal alliance between the main opposition bloc, the six-party Umma Alliance, and the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which is accused of links to the terrorist separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Regarding the sexual leaks that affected him through Twitter accounts that threatened to publish a video that includes a sex scandal for Inge if he does not withdraw from the presidential race, the head of the Balad Party said, "What I have experienced during the last 45 days I have not seen in 45 years, they have published documents, photos and forged papers as if they were mine, those who did this are the followers of Fethullah Gulen, and some opposition supporters republished them."

While holding the state responsible for protecting his rights in this case, he considered what happened to be a "moral assassination", and stressed that all these clips, audio recordings and images published are lies and slander.

What did #محرم_انجه mean by saying, "You can't win cooperation with Turkey's enemies"? It seems to me that he is winking at the opposition candidate #كليجدار_أوغلو, and that his withdrawal will further spread confusion, confusion and passive reluctance to vote among opposition supporters, which serves the president #اردوغان https://t.co/MIxYNv365t

— Mohammed Al-Mukhtar Al-Shanqeeti (@mshinqiti) May 11, 2023

Following the press conference in which Ince announced his withdrawal from the presidential election, state-run TRT reported that Turkey's prosecutor general in the capital Ankara had opened an investigation into "accusations and incitement against the withdrawing candidate Muharrem Ince."

People's Party (YP) chairman and Umma Alliance candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who had invited Ince to join the opposition's six-party table on Wednesday, renewed his call for Ince after the latter announced his withdrawal from the presidential election.

Kılıçdaroğlu tweeted: "My call is still standing until now, let's put aside previous differences. We are waiting for Mr. Ince at the table of Turkey, please please!"

His popularity is plummeting.

The threat of scandals against Ince was preceded by the emergence of opinion polls that revealed that his popularity fell significantly to about 2%, which, according to analysts, contributed to pushing the head of the Balad Party to the decision to withdraw from the presidential race.

The latest poll published by Conda, which is relatively respected in political circles, showed that Ince Hutt's popularity rose from 10% in early April to 2.2% between May 2 and 4. In contrast, the popularity of nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan increased from 8% to <>.<>% in the same period.

Mahmut Osman, a writer and political analyst at Turkey's Anadolu Agency, believes that the main reason for Ince's decision to withdraw was the dramatic drop in his popularity in what looks like a consensus by pollsters, in addition to the threat of scandals.

Osman pointed out, in a statement to Al Jazeera Net, that the withdrawn candidate did not say that he withdrew in favor of anyone after he was expected to announce his support for Kılıçdaroğlu, according to reports.

The political analyst also pointed out that Ince did not accuse the CHP of being behind the publication of the leaks, making the latter the first beneficiary of his decision to withdraw even if he did not declare his support.

Unsudden withdrawal

For his part, the writer and researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, Saeed Al-Hajj, was not surprised by the decision of the head of the opposition Al-Balad Party, considering it "not a surprise" as a result of the pressure exerted on him and threatening him with scandalous recordings, and saw that what he was exposed to was greater than the possibility of confronting even a stubborn person like him.

Although Muharrem Ince's grassroots and party have traditionally voted for the opposition, there are questions about whether his withdrawal from the presidential election will result in the votes he would have received going to the joint opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Muharrem Ince's withdrawal under threat of sex scandal cassette is reminiscent of former Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman Deniz Bekal, who withdrew from the party's presidency after a sex scandal was published.

— Turkish Deterrent: flag-tr: (@RD_turk) May 11, 2023

The Metropole polling center published the results of a poll it conducted earlier this month, in which it asked its participants, all of whom announced that they would vote for Muharrem Ince in the presidential elections, if their candidate withdrew from the election, who would they vote for? Forty-nine percent said they would vote for Kılıçdaroğlu, 49.22% said they would vote for Erdogan, 3.21% said they would not vote for anyone, and the rest could not make their choice.

Inconclusive benefit

Hajj commented on these estimates, saying, to Al Jazeera Net, that these numbers and the order of probabilities are logical regardless of the accuracy of the ratios that can not be defined.

"Neither Ince nor any presidential candidate has the votes of his supporters in full, so even if he directs them to vote for anyone, not all of them will vote for him," he said.

He said many went to Ince mainly because they did not want Kılıçdaroğlu, although a percentage of them would vote for him, which would significantly increase the latter's chances.

Al-Haj concluded by saying that Ince's withdrawal from the presidential race raises the likelihood of deciding the presidential election from the first round relatively, but that a run-off will be held in any case.