Thinker Mohammed Mahjoub Haroun for Al Jazeera Net: These scenarios of the ongoing conflict in Sudan

KHARTOUM – Former Sudanese intellectual and head of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Khartoum, Dr. Mohamed Mahgoub Haroun, said that the main reason for the fighting currently taking place in the country, between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, is the weakness of the leadership structure in the Sudanese state.

Haroun expressed his belief that a new era of national politics will take shape in Sudan, expressing the hope that it will be in the right direction and based on a broad-based national consensus.

The presence of a parallel army in one country or within a single sovereignty provided a susceptibility to armed conflicts, he said, stressing that there was no situation similar to the Sudan in which there were multiple national armies.

Al Jazeera Net interviewed the Sudanese thinker on the issues of the current political in his country and the outcome of the ongoing confrontations in Khartoum, and future scenarios, and the following dialogue in detail:

• What do you think is the real reason for the outbreak of fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces?

There is not necessarily one reason for the fighting between the army and the Rapid Support, but I think that the main reason is the weakness of the leadership structure in the Sudanese state, for a long time, which led to the weakening of the state and its structures, and therefore a need arose in the state to use agents to carry out basic functions such as the function of maintaining security, which in the theory of the state is a function exclusively monopolized by the national army and the other security system.

When the performance of the State weakened and its capacity weakened, the needs began to arise for parties to help maintain security, and this appeared in southern Sudan during the civil war phase, and then in Darfur, and when the political leadership estimated that it could not confront the armed protest movements in the national army, it accepted to work according to the theory of proxy war, which led it to search for those who play this role.

Because we do not live in an ideal world, internal and external concerns have emerged that decided to invest in the parallel army represented by the Rapid Support Forces, and accordingly establish a project to seize power by armed force.

Haroun believes that a new era of Sudanese politics will take shape after the crisis (Al Jazeera Net)

• Do you think that there are foreign hands behind what is currently happening in Sudan and what are its indicators?

The outside world is governed in its relations by the search for interests and the achievement of interests, and the world is currently living in a state of intense insatiability for resources and the expansion of national economies, for the state looking for intervention, and building partners and alliances. Thus, the current conflict is not between two generals, and a conflict of internal interests only, but also external drivers, and the Arab-African-Middle East region represents an ideal case for the incoherence of the outside world.

Sudan is of particular importance for its geopolitical location and proximity to markets, and its view of the warm seas through which the global trade movement passes, and it is the African entrance towards the Arab world and the gateway of the Arabs towards Africa and a country full of human and natural resources, so why not there are external ambitions in Sudan, especially against the background of the continuous weakness of the state's leadership and the sharp political division, and the entrenchment of the forces of the national political space, and of course this encourages external interventions, and the ongoing fighting is one of the manifestations of external interference along with other factors. Internal.

• Do you think that the presence of a force other than the army that has the tools of violence is the cause of the conflict between the two sides?

When there is a parallel army in one country, or within a single sovereignty, that provides a susceptibility to armed conflicts, there is no situation similar to Sudan that lives in multiple national armies.

• There are fears that the fighting between the army and the RSF from Khartoum will spread to some states and turn into a civil war.

As long as there is a weakness in the leadership in the state that led to war, the continuation of the state of weakness and the absence of a new capable leadership that can lead the country, in light of the critical circumstances it is experiencing, it is not excluded that the fighting will be prolonged and spread beyond the geography of the capital, and I hope that this will not happen and we hope for a speedy end to the fighting in Khartoum.

It is not wise to deal with the complex situation in the country with wishful thinking, and somewhat naïve estimates, Sudan needs capable leadership to avoid many risks, especially in the post-conflict phase.

• Don't you think that internal divisions and political polarization have left a vacuum filled by foreign powers that have come to control the political scene and national decision-making?

When you have a house and control its closure, no one can break into it, unless you accept it and open it to him with an understanding between you, we unfortunately have no doors, and the Sudanese house is not open doors, but it is without doors, and open windows and broken walls as well, and the main reason for this is the weakness of the political elites and their retreat to the square of self-interests and the narrow and cheap entity, which is the cause of disappointments.

Unfortunately, external interference is bought at a low value through leaders who do not deserve the sale price they sell to open the way for external intervention, in addition to the weakness of the leaders who manage the scene and the absence of moral integrity, all with the gaps in managing public affairs, which opened the door to buying and selling operations and allowed foreign powers to impose themselves to achieve their interests and agenda at the expense of national decisions and national interests.

• Do you see one of the reasons for Sudan's instability as the sharing of power and wealth?

In Sudan, the issue of power-sharing has become a common political slogan without focusing on the content of this process, but rather the sharing of power, political influence and resources is not for the benefit of citizens and right-holders.

I believe that the concept of sharing power and wealth needs to be revised, and it is more correct to talk about the uses of power and wealth and their distribution for the purposes that create the functions that governments do for the benefit of their citizens.

• After the cessation of hostilities, will the political landscape change and what are your expectations for the expected change?

The current fighting is unprecedented, as it is between two armies, the first is the national army and the other is an army that had a degree of legal legitimacy, and the extent of the fighting and its material and human effects are great, and will have effects on the future. The politics that have prevailed in the last four years have contributed significantly to the current situation, and it is not foreseeable that it will be the same policy that will shape post-fighting Sudan.

I believe that a new era of national politics will take shape, which I hope will be in the right direction based on a broad-based national consensus.

• What equation do you see fit to stabilize the country in light of the diversity and complexities it is experiencing?

A political situation based on stability cannot arise if there is no broad consensus on the nature of the national interest, including the provision of a good base for national security, national self-strength and the emergence of functional State structures capable of achieving a minimum level of citizen satisfaction and building a state of national capacity and dignity and equitable economic relations.

• In light of the current reality in the country, what are the expected scenarios?

In light of the ongoing military confrontations, the country is open to all scenarios, the fighting can end with the national elite learning its lessons, and this will be a justification for the beginning of a courageous and great process to review the mistakes of past eras in national politics, thus turning the crisis into a blessing and the ordeal into a grant.

Despite the blood, body parts and destruction, we can see a light at the end of the tunnel, and make of it in the future, as some countries have done, even in the African ocean, as happened in South Africa under Mandela, Rwanda under the leadership of Paul Kagame, in Ivory Coast and others, and if we do not learn from the lesson, we must prepare for the disappearance of the great national entity (Sudan) and ask God that this will not happen.