Will Erdogan be re-elected as Turkey's leader next Sunday? If the issue monopolizes attention abroad, the presidential election will not be the only election to take place on May 14. The results of the legislative elections, far from being secondary, will largely determine the policies pursued in the country.

In Turkey, parliamentary elections take place in a single round. Voters choose the 600 deputies who will make up the Grand National Assembly, a unicameral (single-chamber) parliament, for five years. Turkey has 87 electoral constituencies in 81 provinces.

Currently, the majority in the Assembly is held by President Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) political bloc and its allies in the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

France 24 takes stock of the stakes of these legislative elections with Nicolas Monceau, lecturer in political science at the University of Bordeaux, associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul and author of the book "Turkey: a European dilemma?" (ed. de l'Aube and Fondation Jean-Jaurès, 2021).

France 24: The Turkish presidential election is the focus of attention, but the parliamentary elections will take place on the same day. Why is this last election so important?

Nicolas Monceau: These elections, which are played out in a single round, are very important. Depending on the results, they will determine the political and economic changes and reforms implemented by the next government. They will also determine the balance of power with the future president and the latter's room for manoeuvre vis-à-vis Parliament. Therefore, these parliamentary elections are fundamental for Turkey's political future.

To give an example, the opposition (embodied by Kemal Kilicdaroglu) has pledged to abolish the presidential system. But for that, he will need a majority in Parliament to be able to reform the Constitution.

This is the difficulty Erdogan's AKP has faced for years in reforming the constitution. The party did not have the majority required to achieve the necessary quorum when MPs voted. In 2017, the AKP reached a quorum (three-fifths of the deputies) with the support of MPs from an allied party, the MHP. To reform the Constitution, there are two options: either the vote of two-thirds of the deputies, or the vote of three-fifths of the deputies followed by a referendum – as was the case in 2017.

Beyond constitutional reform, the entire political programme of the opposition cannot be implemented if it does not have a sufficient majority in Parliament.

Are the themes debated in the legislative and presidential elections the same?

Programmes are developed and defended by political parties. Whether it is the ruling party or the opposition parties, the candidates in the parliamentary elections defend a programme that is broadly the same as that of the candidates in the presidential election.

At the national level, the main themes debated are the economic and social issues due to the deep economic crisis that Turkey is experiencing, and whether or not to maintain the presidential system. There are also international policy issues, but at the local level, we can imagine that these are less addressed.

In some regions of Turkey more affected by the economic crisis or in those devastated by the earthquake of 6 February, candidates in the parliamentary elections are placing more emphasis on issues that affect the inhabitants of these regions more directly. For example: reconstruction, post-disaster management, restoring housing and daily life for people who have been displaced...

It can also be assumed that, in the east of the country, the candidates of certain parties, particularly pro-Kurdish, defend issues that directly affect their electorate, in this case, the Kurdish electorate.

Can there be "cohabitation" if Recep Tayyip Erdogan is re-elected to the presidency but does not have a majority in Parliament, and vice versa?

Yes, on paper, it can happen. We can have the re-election of the outgoing president and the loss of his majority in Parliament, to the benefit of the opposition in the form of a coalition of several parties. And conversely, the opposition candidate can also be elected to the presidency without the current majority coalition losing the parliamentary elections.

"Cohabitation" would have very important consequences on the functioning of political life by greatly complicating relations between the executive and legislative powers in Turkey.

In this presidential system, in case of "cohabitation", the president can bypass Parliament, so to speak, by governing with decree laws. This has led to a weakening of Parliament's role and influence.

And in the same way, in case of "cohabitation", if Parliament passes a law, the president can decide to veto and not to promulgate the law. But the latter practice would not be new. We saw it in the 2000s, when the AKP came to power in 2002 and won a majority in parliament, when the president was a secularist, Ahmet Necdet Sezer.

The summary of the week France 24 invites you to look back on the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news with you everywhere! Download the France 24 app