Persistent rumors about Russian President Vladimir Putin's health, a drone attack on his Kremlin residence this week and the rise of Wagner Group Chairman Yevgeny Prigozhin have led to new waves of speculation about who might replace him.
The report noted that Putin does not show any ill health, despite constant rumors about this.
However, the report questioned who would succeed him, answering that – according to the constitution – if Putin dies or is no longer able to govern, the acting presidency will pass to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, a "technocrat" with little charisma and influence, and after 3 months of transition presidential elections will be held.
A character that protects his legacy and his partners
If Putin dies, his allies may retain enough leverage to ensure that he becomes a sympathetic figure that would protect his legacy and protect his partners from prosecution, the report said, noting that such a person could be: the speaker of the State Duma (parliament) Vyacheslav Volodin, 59, or the head of the ruling United Russia party, Andrei Turchak, 47.
Russian writer Mikhail Shishkin predicted chaos in the event of Putin's death or impeachment: "The war in Ukraine will stop and a war of bandits will begin to dominate Russia. These people — who will fight for their lives and for power — don't care much who Crimea or Donbas belong to," Shishkin said, predicting that the country would disintegrate, as regional rulers protect themselves and seize assets using private armies.
Prigozhine protrusion
Yevgeny Prigozhin, backed by fighters who withdrew from Ukraine, may emerge as a powerful figure, the report said.
Leonid Volkov, former chief of staff of Alexei Navalny, predicted a desperate battle between the clans, but in a surprisingly positive assessment he also claims that the competition will eventually lead to the liberalization of politics and the release of political prisoners like Navalny.
During Putin's long tenure, his real opponents in Russia were eliminated, and his "stubborn" opponent Alexei Navalny, 46, survived an alleged attempt to poison him, but he was jailed on dubious fraud charges and unlikely to appear for years, and other opposition figures were jailed, killed or escaped.