As Ukraine shows its readiness to embark on a major reversal offensive, there is a view that Russia is beginning to focus on defending other regions by lowering its priority to the battleground of Bakhmut in the east, which it has been seeking full control of.
Prigozhin, the head of Wagener, a private military company that is participating in the battle with Russia's regular army over the fierce battle site of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, criticized the administration's response on May 5, saying that the Russian Defense Ministry was intentionally cutting off the supply of ammunition.
On May 5, they announced their withdrawal from Bakhmut.
Regarding this remark, the American think tank "Institute of War" said on the 10th, "It shows that the Russian Ministry of Defense is lowering the priority of Bakhmut, and it may be refraining from supplying ammunition and supplies in preparation for the reversal offensive of Ukraine." He expressed the view that the Russian side is beginning to focus on the defense of other regions.
In response to these developments, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on the 6th that fierce fighting is continuing in Bakhmut and indicated that it is ready to fight thoroughly.
Meanwhile, in Russia, the Putin administration announced on May 5 that Ukrainian drones had launched an attack on the Kremlin, and it has become clear that military parades on World War II Victory Day, which were scheduled to be held in various places on May 3, will be canceled one after another.
Under these circumstances, the Russian President's Office announced on the 9th that President Putin held a security conference to discuss preparations for Victory Day, but the details have not been disclosed, and it seems that careful discussions are also underway regarding the events to be held on Moscow's Red Square.
"Is the withdrawal announcement aimed at directing the brunt of the blame on the Ministry of Defense and the military?"
Regarding the aim of Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private military company Wagener, announcing his withdrawal from Bakhmut on May 5, Shinji Hyodo, research secretary of the National Institute for Defense Studies of the Ministry of Defense, said, "We will shift the blame for the failure to take full control of Bakhmut in time by the anniversary of Russia's victory over Germany on May 10 to the Ministry of Defense, and blame President Putin for not being able to show the people the results of the war. The aim is to turn it on the side of the military."
He also said, "Since the paratroopers of the Russian army have been deployed, even if Wagener's troops withdraw from Bakhmut, it will not have a significant impact on the current situation of Bahmut itself," and expressed the view that it is necessary to carefully assess whether Wagener will actually withdraw and the impact of withdrawing.
"Mr. Prigogine will continue to make political appeals to the president," he said, adding that Mr. Prigogine would remain involved in the fighting even if he withdrew from Bakhmut.
On the other hand, regarding Mr. Prigozhin's complaint that "the Russian Ministry of Defense is stopping the supply of ammunition," Mr. Hyodo pointed out that "Wagener's unit has a severe attrition rate and its combat capability has been greatly reduced, while the Russian army may be trying to prepare for a counter-offensive on the Ukrainian side by maintaining it without supplying weapons and ammunition."
On the other hand, regarding the Russian president's office claiming on May 5 that Ukrainian drones had launched an attack on the Kremlin targeting President Putin, he said, "The possibility is a retaliatory strike aimed at the center of power, such as the presidential office in the capital Kyiv and the building of the Ministry of Defense."
However, our analysis is that the decision on whether or not to actually do so will be made based on how many precision-guided missiles remain that can be pinpointed and political developments such as Victory Day on May 9.