A veteran politician, the strong, energetic verb known for being the agitator of the Turkish parliament, Muharrem Ince (pronounced "inedjé"), 59, was renowned for his ability to galvanize crowds. But despite the inauguration of the Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition party in Turkey, it failed to dethrone President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2018 presidential election. The Réis was then re-elected in the first round of the election with just over 52% of the vote, while Muharrem Ince finished second, with nearly 30% of the vote.

Revanchard, the former professor of physics and chemistry is back five years later for the new presidential election on May 14, for which President Erdogan seeks a third consecutive term. But this time, his candidacy is seen as a real thorn in the side of the opposition, according to experts on Turkish politics contacted by France 24.

"Obstacle for CHP and Kilicdaroglu"

The opposition, which has united under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, takes a dim view of Muharrem Ince's candidacy because it risks jeopardizing a possible victory against President Erdogan in the first round.

"If Ince does well in the polls, around 4% or more, ... he could prevent Kilicdaroglu from winning in the first round on May 14, and force a second round," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute. According to him, "Erdogan's interest is to see Ince rise".

A real challenge for Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a 74-year-old former senior civil servant supported by the six main opposition parties, including his own: the CHP. This veteran of Turkish political life can also count on the support of the pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party) – the country's third largest political force – which called for a vote for him on 28th April last.

>> READ ALSO: Elections in Turkey: the pro-Kurdish HDP, a party with "decisive and capital" weight

Soner Cagaptay also recalls that Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Muharrem Ince met after the latter announced his candidacy, at the head of his own party, the Fatherland Party (Memleket partisi), which he founded in 2021. But the two rivals did not reach an agreement.

"In the political game", Muharrem Ince "appears as an obstacle for the CHP and (Kemal) Kilicdaroglu", adds Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). For him, "the candidacy of Muharrem Ince, by its very existence, appears as a candidacy of division, since he himself says that we must put an end to Erdogan".

A very close election

The result of the presidential election promises to be so close that the slightest division of the anti-Erdogan vote promises to be perilous. Muharrem Ince could notably be heard by Turkish youth, facing the advanced ages of President Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, aged 69 and 74 respectively.

"Ince's brand is 'neither right nor left'. He is seducing voters who are voting for the first time," indicates Soner Cagaptay, specifying that "40% of his support comes from voters from the very beginning." The specialist points out that "it is Ince and his style of centrist-populist politics that particularly appeal to young people." On 14th May 5.2 million first-time voters were called to ballot, i.e. 8% of the electorate.

Muharrem Ince is "someone who counts, but who cannot claim victory. It has a rather reduced popularity that is not comparable to that of 2018, "nuances Didier Billion. According to him, the difficulty for the Fatherland Party candidate "is that we have not heard much about him since the last presidential election, and he has not marked political life for five years."

The outgoing president, who is well versed in electoral campaigns but who has to take responsibility for the serious economic crisis and criticism of the slowness of relief after the earthquake of 6th February (more than 50,000 dead), hopes to galvanize his conservative base in the final stretch before the double presidential and legislative elections on 14th May.

In this context, Muharrem Ince can trip up the opposition – even with a very low score. "When he embarked (in the campaign, editor's note), he was at 14-15-16% at the beginning. Now it is at 4-6%. But at this stage, he is still very important in the course of the campaign," notes Soner Cagaptay. He is a politician who "likes attention and spotlight, and he has had a lot of it, so he will stay in the race for president," he said. "We'll see if he'll be a spoiler or not."

The summary of the week France 24 invites you to look back on the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news with you everywhere! Download the France 24 app