A pretext for escalation and the assassination of Zelensky. How do Ukrainians explain the incident targeting the Kremlin?

Kiev - The repercussions of the Russian authorities' talk about "targeting the Kremlin building and the attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin" continue, as observers believe that it undoubtedly constitutes a remarkable and dangerous development, and may be a new and important turning point in the course of Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine since February 24, 2022.

Ukraine was quick to deny responsibility for the incident and insist it would not fight Russia or assassinate Putin outside its borders.

Ukrainian authorities speak of hypotheses of what could happen soon based on "targeting narratives" that can be summarized as follows:

Opening the fronts of government headquarters

A member of the Ukrainian Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Fyodor Vinislavsky, believes that after the recent threats, the Russians really want to attack the government district of Kiev, bombing administrative buildings.

Finislavsky says to Al Jazeera Net, "The Russians have already tried it in the past, and actually bombed government headquarters in Kharkiv and Mykolaev, and today they may repeat the attempt in Kiev, with a double amount of hypersonic missiles that are difficult to intercept, although the capital is much better fortified."

"We are strengthening our security measures and air defenses. We can't be sure that our defences will achieve amazing results, but the fact that we are ready for that is certain."

Assassination Series

Because the bombing of the headquarters is more symbolic and may not strongly affect decision-making, Ukrainians see the series of assassinations as an option, and it has become strongly and frankly on the table, after the Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev called for the physical liquidation of the Ukrainian president.

In this context, political analyst Oleksandr Polozov says to Al Jazeera Net, "Russia masters the approach of assassination, Zelensky and his entourage are a severe headache for Russia in all fields and levels. "Over the past months, we have heard about attempts to assassinate the president that have not succeeded, and I think we will be facing new and more dangerous attempts targeting him and other figures of power."

Justification for the use of dangerous weapons

From a military point of view, Ukrainians see the "Kremlin targeting narrative" as a pretext for Russia to escalate and use more dangerous and deadly types of weapons.

According to military analyst Yuri Fedorov, the Kremlin "is preparing the Russians to justify the use of its strategic weapons in Ukraine, which may include tactical nuclear weapons, or Sarmat missiles that have already begun to be transferred to border areas."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Fedorov considers that "targeting the Kremlin is a provocative process made by the Kremlin itself most likely" because the use of these weapons needs strong justifications in front of the Russian interior and abroad.

"Russia's resort to strategic weapons means that it has exhausted most of its conventional means of success in Ukraine, and it needs something to quickly turn the equation in its favor, even if it is catastrophic," he said.

Persuasion of the need for escalation

Another hypothesis in a related context, albeit to a lesser extent, is the need to convince senior Russian officials of the need to escalate in various ways.

"Anyone who sees the scale of the very small explosion of the march realizes that its source is Russian, and its goal is not to destroy, but to scare Putin and others, convince them that it is a matter of life and death, and then push them to agree to the use of taboos in Ukraine," political analyst Boris Tiesinhausen said in a clip posted on social media.

Before the anniversary of victory and counter-operations

In the context of what they describe as "also artificial provocation," many Ukrainians associate the "targeting of the Kremlin" with Russia's quest for victory before the anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, which falls on May 9 of each year, and is considered a major holiday in it and in many countries of the former Soviet Union.

Political analyst Polozov said, "What happened reminds us of the atmosphere that accompanied the anniversary of May 9 last year. "The situation of the Russians this year is worse, and they are all watching with great concern the counter-operations that Ukraine is mobilizing and intends to launch."

"The Russians are preparing to stage a huge military parade. But it makes no sense for them to celebrate Victory Day if they are on the path to loss, unless something big happens to justify the aftermath, perhaps to distract the Ukrainian political and military leadership, and to influence, in some way, those upcoming operations."