Will Sudan be the next Somalia?

Xiang Changhe (Scholar of International Studies)

On 4 April, clashes broke out between Sudanese paramilitary forces, the Rapid Support Force, and the Sudanese Armed Forces, resulting in numerous casualties and a humanitarian crisis. The two sides of the conflict began the ceasefire for 15 hours from 25:72 local time on the 27th, and after midnight expired on the 3th, the two sides agreed to extend the ceasefire for <> days.

The multi-day conflict has taken a heavy toll. According to the latest data from Sudan's Ministry of Health, at least 512 people, including armed personnel and civilians, have been killed and about 4200,<> injured. The actual casualty figure is likely to be higher. What is worrying is that the internal contradictions in the Sudan are complex and sharp, the two parties to the conflict are not ready for peace talks, the conflict may turn into a protracted war, and the Sudan, which is itself poor and backward, is likely to become the next Somalia.

Sudan is a landlocked country located in central Africa, bordering Egypt to the north. Sudan gained independence from British colonial rule in 1956. The social structure of the Sudan is based on tribal ties and ethnic kinship, with ordinary people more recognizing tribal groups, weak in their concept of the modern state, more difficult to reconcile contradictions within the armed forces and political parties, and society prone to turmoil. For decades, Sudan has been trapped in a strange circle of "from chaos to rule and from rule to chaos", and the cycle continues. There has been a long period of discord between the north and south of the Sudan, and the civil war has lasted for 20 years. In 2005, the two sides signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and the North and South officially moved towards separation. In accordance with the agreement, a referendum was held in January 2011 to establish the Republic of South Sudan.

The conflict erupted because of a long-standing "political discord" between the leader of the rapid support force, Dagallo, and the Sudanese Sovereign Council and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Burhan, who was dissatisfied with the imminent integration of the rapid support force into the Sudanese Armed Forces and some of the staffing arrangements.

Surprisingly, the Rapid Support Force and the Sudanese Armed Forces were once allies, having "joined forces" in the overthrow of al-Bashir's regime in 2019 and Burhan's dissolution of Sudan's transitional government in 2021. But since the end of last year, Sudan has restarted the political process and put the restructuring of the army on the agenda. The power struggle between Dagallo and Burhan became public, and the main difference was the integration and unified command of the two armed forces, and the fundamental point of disagreement was who would have the highest command of the future rapid support force.

In addition, Dagalo was strongly dissatisfied with the current political transition process in Sudan, openly questioning that the Burhan-led transition process would abandon its commitment to a civilian government, and repeatedly publicly accusing Burhan of not transferring power to the civilian government in accordance with the transitional agreement.

The Sudan Rapid Support Force, a new force established in 2013 by former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir integrating paramilitary militias such as the Janjaweed forces in the civil war, currently numbers about <>,<>. Dagallo is supported by Arab tribes in western Sudan, from whom the rapid support force is also largely staffed. Compared with the government army, the rapid support force is not inferior in strength, and its offensive was in full swing the other day, and the forward was only a bridge away from the presidential palace. Since the strength of the two sides is not much different, the conflict is difficult to resolve for a while.

After the outbreak of the conflict, the international community expressed its concern and apprehension, and the relevant parties came forward to carry out persuasion work. From the United Nations to the European Union, from the African Union to the Arab League, the leaders of these multilateral organizations have spoken to Burhan and Dagallo separately, calling on both sides to immediately stop the violence and resume dialogue. Regional powers such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have also mediated in different ways. At this stage, mediation has had little effect.

According to Reuters, although the intensity of the current conflict has weakened, the sound of air strikes and anti-aircraft fire was still heard in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and the neighboring city of Omdurman on the 27th. In addition, the situation in Darfur in western Sudan is deteriorating, with tribal armed involvement in the conflict.

The conflict has brought great suffering to the people of the Sudan. The Sudan is already an underdeveloped country with few resources and underdevelopment. With a literacy rate of just over a quarter and an average life expectancy of less than 50 years, about a third of Sudan's 4600 million people depend on humanitarian assistance. The conflict has hampered humanitarian assistance and left many people with limited access to food and drinking water. Egypt's Foreign Ministry said about 1,6 people had fled Sudan into Egypt, including 1,4 Sudanese. According to the United Nations, some 2,<> people have fled Sudan to neighbouring Chad, with thousands more fleeing to South Sudan, Ethiopia and the Central African Republic.

The conflict continues to trigger evacuations. China sent warships to Sudan to evacuate overseas Chinese. Wu Xi, director of the Consular Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in an interview with the media on the evening of the 26th that more than 1100,<> Chinese compatriots have been safely evacuated from Sudan. China has also actively assisted the evacuation of citizens of other countries.

France's Foreign Ministry said France has so far evacuated nearly 700,<> people, including citizens of many countries, from Sudan. Germany's Defense Ministry said more than <> people, including citizens of many countries, had been evacuated from Sudan and that evacuation flights had ended.

The British and American diasporas in Sudan, where about 1,6 Americans and about 4000,<> Britons live, have only been evacuated in small numbers. However, the two countries evacuated all diplomatic personnel from Sudan early and closed their embassies and consulates, and the diplomatic personnel took the lead in "running away" which was criticized by international public opinion.

At present, the situation in the Sudan is still deteriorating and there is a trend towards a protracted war. According to Al Jazeera, the Burhan side referred to the rapid support force as a "rebel" and said it would eventually disband the rapid support force; Dagallo called Burhan's side a "coup group", ruled out peace talks, and urged Burhan to "surrender." With both approaches to Maimang, Dagalo and Burhan have no intention of backing down, the prospects for peace in Sudan are slim, and the economy and people's livelihood are further deteriorated, which may trigger a large-scale refugee flow.