Two weeks into the conflict in Sudan, there appear to be no indication so far that one side in the conflict will be able to win a decisive victory, raising fears that a protracted war between the RSF and the military could destabilize an already volatile region.

Despite hundreds of deaths and the capital Khartoum turning into a war zone, there is little sign that a compromise can be reached between army chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti).

The risks of conflict will be dire for Sudan and its seven neighbors, which could be destabilized by conflict in a country with a history of civil wars, including a decades-long war that ended with the secession of South Sudan in 2011.


Exclusion of negotiations

Foreign mediators are struggling to stop the slide into war, with U.N. special envoy to Sudan Volker Perthes citing signs of more openness to negotiations, but saying Khartoum had seen renewed fighting.

Hemedti and Burhan have previously ruled out negotiating with each other, in public statements since the fighting began.

A Sudanese government official described the conflict as between a legitimate army and a rebel militia that must surrender and cannot be negotiated, while the RSF portrays the army as "extremists".

The escalation of fighting in Khartoum and elsewhere has also undermined several ceasefire agreements brokered by the United States and other countries.

A Western diplomat says mediators are seeking a ceasefire and stabilizing the situation in this way rather than reaching some kind of major peace deal, underscoring the difficulty of establishing peace in the future.

Analysts believe foreign powers with influence on both sides would put more pressure on them to de-escalate.


Control of the capital

Despite its fighter jets and tanks, the army has so far been unable to expel RSF fighters from Khartoum, which has survived violence in Sudan's previous civil wars.

The military said on Thursday the RSF fighters were on the verge of defeat, but a Western diplomat said the RSF had the upper hand.

Many civilians have fled the capital to safer areas, with residents describing the situation as rapidly collapsing as gangs and looters dotting empty streets, neighbourhoods subjected to air strikes, artillery shelling and running out of food and fuel.

Even if the army manages to win in Khartoum, analysts worry it could turn into internal wars as usual.

Guerrilla warfare

Describing the situation as "terrifying", a senior regional diplomat said "we will see a lot of division" and expressed concern about renewed conflict between Khartoum's governing centre and remote areas in a country of 46 million people.

Ahmed Suleiman of London's Chatham House think tank said he expected a very bad scenario, with little prospect of finding a short-term solution that would permanently stop the fighting.

The RSF is adept at fighting using guerrilla tactics in urban areas, while the SAF has better air power, tanks and logistical capabilities, Suleiman said.

The army appears to be trying to pursue Hemedti in the hope of dealing a severe blow to the RSF, he said.

Tensions have been rising for months between Hemedti (right) and Burhan over how to integrate the RSF into the army (Getty Images)

Framework Agreement

Tensions have been rising for months between Hemedti and Burhan over how to integrate the nearly 100,<> Rapid Support Forces into Sudan's military under an internationally backed framework agreement leading to the formation of a civilian government, and over the chain of command in the run-up to the election.

Hemedti insisted that the integration of the RSF must take place over a period of 10 years, in line with the terms of a framework agreement for the transition plan, while the army wanted a much shorter timeframe.

Violence would wipe out the political process once and for all, a process that was supposed to lay the foundations for democracy in Sudan after the overthrow of ousted President Omar al-Bashir.

Sudanese, who have fought for civilian rule, are concerned that the past era is reversing and that chaos will allow the military to tighten its grip on power, along with members of Bashir's government returning to power.