Washington Post: Russians are plotting against Chad, America is reluctant to help its important ally

The Washington Post published a lengthy report on the conflict in Chad, Russian interference in it through the Wagner Group, and the "reluctance" of the United States, which is at loggerheads between providing military and security assistance to its important ally Chad and what it calls for "defending democracy."

The report, written by Rachel Chason, the paper's West Africa bureau chief, said Western officials were increasingly concerned about the stability of Chad, which has been one of the United States' most important security partners in West Africa and now faces growing Russian influence and several insurgency movements.

Definite threats

The confirmation of the threats facing Chad has been substantiated by several leaked U.S. intelligence documents, which describe the attempt of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner Group last February to recruit Chadian dissidents and establish a training site for 300 fighters in neighboring Central African Republic as part of a "developing conspiracy." to overthrow the Chadian government."

The documents point to a discussion early that month between Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigogine and his associates about the timetable and facilities for training an initial group of rebels in the town of Afakapa, Central African Republic, near the Chadian border, and the route Wagner would use to transport them.

Critics of Washington say America's security concerns have contributed to its silence and that of some other Western governments about what they describe as Chad's growing repression at home, most notably the killing of largely peaceful protesters by security forces last October.

Chadian Interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby during his time at the Elysee Palace in Paris on November 12, 2021 (French)

The challenge of security and democracy

Chason commented that the debate about how far the United States can push Chad to adhere to democratic values and whether this could jeopardize Africa's security interests exemplifies the challenges facing Western policymakers seeking to support allied governments and promote democratic values as well.

In a strongly worded letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month, Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote that he was "deeply concerned by the lack of a clear and public U.S. response" to the October killings as well as continued U.S. support for the Chadian military, adding that the previously unreported risk was "creating a perception ... that the United States is ready to partner with regimes that do not respect democracy and human rights as long as those regimes agree to cooperate in countering terrorism and opposing Russian influence."

Conspiracy to overthrow Chad's government

The rebellion is colouring the history of Chad, a sprawling country of 16 million people that is home to dozens of ethnic groups vying for power. The late Chadian President Idriss Déby, who was mortally wounded in the 2021 battle, succeeded in putting down multiple insurgencies during his 30-year rule, sometimes with the support of France, the former Chadian colonizer. Chad has been led by Déby's son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby, since 2021.

What has changed now is Russian intervention, which has expanded in Africa as France's popularity has declined. A Western diplomat in Chad, who, like other diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity, said Chad faced the prospect of an internal coup as well as threats from rebels based on its borders in Libya, Sudan and the Central African Republic. The Wagner Group has relations with the armed forces or militias in each of these countries.

African Confederation

Leaked U.S. intelligence documents say the effort to foment a rebellion in Chad is part of a broader campaign by Prigogine to create a "united confederation of African nations" across the continent, comprising Burkina Faso, Chad, Eritrea, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan. "Over the past year, Prigogine has accelerated Wagner's operations in Africa, shifting his approach from taking advantage of security vacuums to intentionally facilitating instability," one document says.

In February, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States had shared intelligence with authorities in Chad, suggesting that Wagner was planning to assassinate Déby.

A senior State Department official said the United States was "committed to a democratic transition in Chad" and continued to press for the release of 150 detained political prisoners.

Although Chad has been an "important partner" in counterterrorism operations in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, the official said this "has no impact on U.S. views on the long-term need for democratic reform in Chad."

American silence

In the months since the tragic events of October, the US government has remained largely silent. In his letter to Blinken, Menendez noted that the United States has not imposed travel restrictions or sanctions on those responsible for the violence, as happened in the aftermath of the 2009 massacre by security forces in Guinea.

The letter noted that the Biden administration has never condemned Déby's seizure of power in a "coup" and invited him to Washington for last year's Africa Summit.

Rimadji Hoynathé, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in N'Djamena, said Chad and the West were playing a high-stakes "bargaining game". The Chadian condition is simple: "Don't talk about my human rights violations, I will support you."

Cameron Hudson, a senior aide at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is quoted as saying that the Biden administration has struggled to achieve a clear policy on Africa's Sahel region, in part because there is no active discussion about how to balance the promotion of both security and democratic partnerships.