Under international and regional pressures. These are the conditions of Al-Burhan and Hemedti for negotiation

KHARTOUM – After 11 days of confrontations between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum, punctuated by five fragile truces, external pressure has intensified on the parties to the conflict to turn the recent truce into a permanent ceasefire and sit down to negotiations to end the crisis and complete the political process.

According to African diplomatic sources, the head of the Sovereignty Council and army commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and his deputy, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo "Hemedti", received warnings from regional and international powers about the deterioration of the security and humanitarian situation in Khartoum, and fears of the escalation of the conflict - after the evacuation of diplomatic missions and foreign nationals - and its spiral out of control, and its expansion to neighboring countries, which threatens security and peace in the region.

The sources who spoke to Al Jazeera Net, pointed to the fear of influential international forces of the outbreak of civil war in Sudan and the collapse of the state and its transformation into a failed state, which would spread chaos and weapons, and encourage terrorism and irregular migration from the countries of the Horn of Africa east to the countries of the Sahel and Sahara towards Europe, by virtue of the country's geopolitical location.

Al Jazeera Net is trying to answer the most prominent questions related to the future of the conflict between the two parties and the possibility of negotiation in response to international pressure and the data of the development of battles on the ground.

Where is the balance of military power on the ground headed?

The army was able to take control of RSF bases and centers in 17 of the country's 18 states, either through military confrontations or surrender, as happened in some of them, and destroyed and took control of all RSF bases and headquarters in Khartoum.

On the other hand, the RSF has deployed in several government locations in Khartoum and most of the police headquarters from which it withdrew, and has a presence in several neighborhoods and main roads in the capital, Omdurman and Khartoum North, and still maintains a partial presence at Khartoum airport.

On the third day of the confrontations, Hemedti set the objectives of the operation for his forces, which are to control the government, hand it over to a civilian authority, and arrest Burhan for trial, pointing to the bias of senior officers in the army to his forces, which has not been achieved so far, and it seems that he was alluding to the inspector general of the army, the head of the military judiciary, and the commander of the Intelligence Training Institute, whom he captured in their homes adjacent to his residence in the early hours of the confrontations.

Did both sides miscalculate the military?

Military experts believe that the estimates of Burhan and Hemedti were not accurate, as the former seems to have not been prepared for war or was unlikely to occur, as the Rapid Support Forces were participating in guarding the presidential palace and Khartoum airport, and deployed near the army command and massed in the Sports City located in the direction of the airport road leading to the army headquarters, with heavy weapons days before the outbreak of confrontations, and the army did not take any measures about it.

On the other hand, experts believe that Hemedti thought that he could resolve the battle within hours, by killing or arresting Burhan and his military comrades in the Sovereignty Council and taking control of the army headquarters, and thus becoming the first man in the state acting head of the Sovereignty Council, and the subsequent obtaining of political support from some forces that were allied with him in the recent period, and the formation of a civilian government that depends on him to protect them.

Do flames burn neighboring countries?

As the war entered its tenth day, diplomats and foreign nationals were evacuated, and the movement of displacement and asylum to neighboring countries, especially Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan, increased, which constitutes economic pressure on them, and compounded the suffering of these countries due to the difficult economic conditions they are experiencing.

Regional parties also fear the flow of weapons and fighters from Libya, Central Africa and Chad through the Darfur region, where Hemedti has men, allies and clans to support him and the infiltration of fighters from Niger and Mali could spread.

Conditions for Burhan and Hemedti for a permanent ceasefire?

Burhan set one condition for sitting with the RSF for a ceasefire: to withdraw their forces from Khartoum and return to their pre-December positions.

Military sources revealed to Al Jazeera Net that the army commander told the mediators that there is no room to talk with Hemedti, but any other leaders of his commanders and advisers, and the exit of forces from the capital and all cities and put them in camps until the date of integration into the army, and the removal of Hemedti and held accountable for his rebellion and the loss of lives and the destruction of institutions and infrastructure.

On the other hand, Hemedti stipulated that Burhan be removed from the army command and reached an understanding with a new leadership chosen by the military institution, and handed over the headquarters and bases destroyed by the army, and expressed his readiness to integrate his forces into the army according to technical arrangements and a period of time to be agreed upon, and does not mind leaving the political scene and continuing to lead his forces until they are integrated, according to the same sources.

Will the political landscape change after the war stops?

The political division, polarization, and the framework agreement signed between the military component and the Forces of Freedom and Change - the Central Council were among the reasons that precipitated the military clash between Burhan and Hemedti, as the agreement granted the Rapid Support Forces a parallel status to the army, which provoked the military institution, and the forces of the Central Council tried to monopolize power at the expense of other political forces, and to support Hemedti's military power, influence in the state and his financial weight.

Observers expect that regional and international powers keen on the stability of Sudan - for security and geopolitical assessments - will neutralize the role of Generals Burhan and Hemedti in political life, and transfer power to civilian rule behind a broad political base, enabling it to stabilize and address the country's challenges and prepare it for free and fair elections.

What scenarios are expected?

Sources close to the military institution of the island said that the general mood in the army calls for not returning to the political process in its previous form, as it was a recipe for division and political conflict and proposes the formation of a caretaker government to manage the affairs of the country and hold elections after a year.

However, the African Union and other regional and international powers are rushing to return to the political process according to a new approach that includes expanding the base of political forces, not isolating any forces except the former ruling National Congress Party, achieving the greatest degree of national consensus, forming a civilian government, keeping Burhan and Hemedti away from the political stage, and imposing international sanctions on them if they obstruct the country's transition to democratic civilian rule.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, strategic expert Mohamed Hammad believes that Burhan and Hemedti's sitting at the negotiating table will make concessions that may be acceptable to the military institution, which believes it is victorious in the war and is supposed to impose its conditions.

On the other hand, voices have risen within the leadership of the Rapid Support Forces that hold their commander responsible for the great losses they suffered in their ranks, breaking their military bone and weakening their social incubator, by placing them in the face of the state, and it is likely that this may push them to step down later.

Burhan said last week that he had suggested to Hemedti that they should step down together if they were the cause of the country's problems, but he refused.