On Tuesday, SVT revealed that Sweden is expelling five Russian diplomats. Wilhelm Agrell, professor of intelligence analysis, says he is not surprised by the measure given the security policy situation:
– Then we will not get any detailed information about what it has been about right now, but it is a bit ritualistic as they describe this from Swedish authorities.
"Seen between the fingers"
Agrell points out that several Western countries have expelled Russian diplomats on espionage charges.
"It stems from an activated Russian intelligence operation, and that they are now taking action against the activities linked to embassies. There is both an increased activity on the part of the Russians and a reduced tendency on the part of the host countries to look through their fingers.
Has Sweden turned a blind eye?
"Naturally. And it is not only Sweden, but in general it has been known that the expulsion of Russian – or Soviet as it was at that time – leads to deteriorating relations.
"There has always been a balance between the benefits of deportation and the risks of deteriorating relations. It is an old dilemma that the Russians have played on all these years.
"Unusually large deportation"
Wilhelm Agrell also reacts to the number of diplomats expelled.
"It is a large and unusually extensive deportation. In the 80s, for example, individual diplomats were expelled. Then it was also done in more discreet forms so that the expulsions would not be publicly known.
"The Russians will certainly respond in the usual way and expel the corresponding number of Swedes.
Tony Ingesson, researcher in intelligence analysis, believes that the government wants to show decisiveness.
"But sometimes it can also be the case that you discover something from SAPO, that they have something for themselves that you want to interrupt.
Two weeks ago, Norway expelled 15 Russian diplomats.
"It may be that they want to make a joint statement with Norway that shows that we do not like that Russia engages in this type of activity to such an extent.