This time it is about migration policy, SD's most important profile issue. The move by SD leader Mattias Karlsson has received a lot of attention. It's no wonder. Contradictions in a government document and hints of a potential government crisis are always hot news. It is probably also one of the ingredients in SD's calculation behind the move.
Just a few weeks ago, SD made a similar proposal about the reduction obligation, i.e. how much biofuels should be mixed in petrol and diesel. The party's economic policy spokesman Oscar Sjöstedt warned of a government crisis if the SD did not get its demands through in the government negotiations on the reduction obligation.
This is also an important issue for the SD, which went to the election with the promise of sharp reductions in petrol and diesel prices. So far, it is nowhere near meeting these requirements, which has created frustration among both its own politicians and voters. It is therefore not daring to guess that the party leadership today feels that it is under pressure. There is increased pressure to deliver on their election promises.
Sweden cannot stop the decision itself
Migration policy is undoubtedly the most important issue for the party. Today's move can therefore be interpreted as a way of showing the voters that they are prepared to push this issue to the extreme, including at the cost of current government cooperation.
However, there are several question marks surrounding the move. The European Parliament's decision does not mean that the matter has been finally decided. On the contrary, several steps remain. Now the Council will take a position, i.e. the individual member states. They are unlikely to come to the same conclusion as Parliament, but negotiations are still under way here. And here the Swedish government thinks much like the SD.
Moreover, decisions in the Council between EU countries are taken by qualified majority. Sweden cannot therefore stop a decision on its own. How the issue will ultimately land is therefore still too early to speculate on. A final decision can not be made until spring 2024. However, even this can be taken with a pinch of salt. EU countries have been discussing a common migration policy for ten years without reaching agreement on a common line.
The moves can backfire on SD
From the SD's actions right now, however, one can draw different conclusions. One is that the threats of a government crisis clearly illustrate the current government's dependence on the SD in the Riksdag. The day SD decides to withdraw its support, the government falls. To repeatedly end up in this type of discussion about internal divisions and the risk of a government crisis risks undermining the image of government capability in the long term.
But the initiatives can also backfire on the SD – if the threats are not taken seriously. The threat of a government crisis is the ultimate weapon a support party has against the government it cooperates with. By its very nature, this cannot be used too often. Then it loses its weight. It is a bit like in the fairy tale about the boy and the wolf, where the young shepherd constantly shouts "the wolf is coming" to get attention. But when the wolf never appears, the surroundings get tired. In the end, no one believes the boy.