• War in Europe Hungary and Poland temporarily ban imports of grain and other products from Ukraine

Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe. Before the Russian invasion it produced enough grain to feed almost 500 million people each year. The war closed ports and borders, threatening crops, the country's economy and causing famines in Africa. The EU, together with the United Nations, managed to establish "solidarity corridors" to take grain out of the country, eliminating controls, inspections and tariffs. And preparing an unprecedented logistics campaign to bring the product to continental ports. The problem is that the cereal has "flooded" its neighbors, in many cases it stays and does not go Egypt or Pakistan, as it should. pulling prices and mobilizing farmers in the East. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania have announced restrictive measures and even a total ban on the entry of cereals. Brussels protests, but the conflict, in an election year for several of them, is deep.

What happened to Ukrainian cereals?

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have decided in recent days to close their borders to Ukrainian grain. The neighbors of the East argue that there are reasons of health, public concern and oversupply, which endangers not only the health but also the work of their citizens. The reality is that this year there are elections in Poland and Slovakia, and the rural vote is fundamental. Bulgaria has an interim government and political pressure in Romania is skyrocketing, with the agriculture minister on the verge of losing his post. The workers of the field are very mobilized and demand that the arrival of Ukrainian cereals be cut, which in theory should be passing through to destinations such as Pakistan, India or Egypt, but in many cases have ended up staying in Europe, pulling the prices of the local product.

Are we facing a legal, political or health problem?

All three, it seems. The European Commission has reacted this week by denouncing the decision of these governments, recalling that all competences in matters of trade are transferred to Brussels and warning, without microphones, that this route is unacceptable, unsupportive and could end up in court. If there are doubts about phytosanitary matters, it must be informed and acted, but all at the same time. A meeting between the Polish minister and his Ukrainian counterpart was scheduled last week, but after being postponed, the EU country announced the closure. Hungary, in perpetual tension with Kiev, immediately signed up. Warsaw is the one that is most between a rock and a hard place, the one that has made the decision and dragged the others along. "Trade policy is the exclusive competence of the European Union and decisions are taken at European level. Unilateral actions are not acceptable. In such complicated times, it is crucial to coordinate and align all decisions within the EU," warned Spanish Trade spokeswoman Miriam García Ferrer. The Commission has asked all the countries involved for formal and full explanations on their measures and the consequences.

What can the EU do?

For now, raise your voice and ask for explanations. But without looking for the shock, because the last year has been especially complicated for border countries. "Poland and other neighbours have done everything in their power. It is not a question of sanctioning, but of finding solutions based on European legislation, in the interests of Ukrainians and Europeans," the Commission's chief spokesman said on Monday, showing understanding. The competences of Commerce are transferred to the European Commission, but simply alleging sanitary issues would be authorized controls and temporary blockades. But since the problem is political and elections are at the end of the year, it is difficult to find a fast track. Eastern farmers want compensation and that the grain does not stay in their territory. Brussels can put up money, but helping Ukraine is one of the priorities. There is unease among diplomatic delegations. Hungary always looks for any excuse not to sanction Russia or to annoy Kiev, but Poland is the great Ukrainian supporter and the one that has most criticized its partners for not supporting the sanctions, for stopping the shipment of weapons or military material. Now, those same people who received constant reprimands, wonder where the solidarity is and point to the hypocrisy of the East, ready to act when the issues align with their priorities, but sneaking away when it comes to suffering, like the rest.

Is it a serious problem for Ukraine or for the EU?

It is a serious economic and logistical problem for Kiev, which is completely dependent on the EU and the United States for its military and commercial survival. It is a problem for Spain, the Netherlands and the rest of the partners who want and need the cereals of Ukraine, the continental breadbasket. And it is a problem of image and coordination for the entire EU, which together with the United Nations, entrusted to this logistical macro-operation the subsistence of the Ukrainian countryside. When Russia closed the ports, the way to get food overland to EU ports was the only option to maintain supply. But in addition, Moscow has only agreed to cooperate with its enemies on the grain issue, reaching an agreement to allow exports.

What is the most likely scenario?

President Zelenskiy has mastered the art of public persuasion, but he cannot tighten the rope. Poland or Slovakia are two of its most faithful supporters, in military, economic and political matters and their concerns are legitimate. The grain has saturated their markets, driven down prices, irritated a key lobby ahead of the polls and created logistical problems and bottlenecks, which in turn affects other exports. Russia, always happy to take advantage of divisions, puts pressure on it by interrupting inspections of ships, which effectively leads to the closure of authorized corridors. Brussels is preparing new aid packages, tens of millions of euros. And it has to make a decision in the face of tariffs. Ukraine is not part of the Union, and therefore its products would have to pay certain border tolls. It was exempted for a year, but the deadline ends in June and it is not clear that it will be able to extend it for another 12 months, as was the initial intention, if there is not much more consensus. If the Commission were to bring to justice those who have imposed unilateral measures, it would surely win, but that is a process of years, not months.

Is this a sign of possible accession?

This clash, the most serious since the Russian invasion, is more than a conjunctural issue. The EU's support has been almost unconditional in all respects. Millions of refugees have entered, tens of billions of euros have been moved, military equipment of all kinds has been sent and the process for the opening of the fastest accession negotiations in history has also been activated. But this trade friction shows precisely the seams. If Ukraine were to join the EU, its role as continental breadbasket would reach another dimension. Brussels is making a tailor-made suit, allowing no tariffs, with lax health controls, pushing when in doubt. But there are limits and even the most enthusiastic in the East are saying that they have been exceeded and that alternative solutions are needed.

  • Ukraine
  • Poland
  • Hungary
  • Slovakia
  • Russia
  • Bulgaria
  • Pakistan
  • Egypt
  • Romania
  • European Commission
  • UN
  • Europe
  • United States
  • European Union
  • India
  • Justice
  • War Ukraine Russia
  • Articles Pablo R. Suanzes

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