KHARTOUM — The countdown to military confrontations between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum appears to have exploded since Saturday.
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is rushing to resolve the battle and achieve the goals of the military institution and impose its conditions, before regional and international pressure forces him to stop the war and enter into a settlement, through which he can make concessions that do not satisfy the army, according to observers.
The army said – in the latest military update – that it was able to destroy and control all the bases and camps of the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum state, the largest of which are the Taiba and Soba camps in southern Khartoum, Karary in the north of Omdurman and Salha in the south, and Al-Jili in Khartoum North, which was used for training, in addition to other small camps in different areas of the capital.
The army also announced that the RSF had handed over its weapons and vehicles without a fight in the states of White Nile, Kassala, Gedarif, Red Sea, Blue Nile, South Kordofan, Sennar and North in addition to the island, while they were forced to surrender in North Kordofan state, and clashes are continuing in the states of the Darfur region.
Army videos – seen by Al Jazeera Net – showed the killing and capture of hundreds of Rapid Support fighters under the bombardment of warplanes or in the face of armored vehicles and tanks, and the capture of more than 100 cars in various locations.
In contrast, the RSF said it captured senior officers and more than 100 soldiers, controlled Khartoum airport and positions inside the army headquarters, the presidential palace and the presidencies of military divisions in Darfur states, and seized 200 tanks and military vehicles.
The balance of power in favor of the army
Estimates prepared by military experts – seen by Al Jazeera Net – show that the Rapid Support Forces are light and fast forces with light and medium armament, and the nature of their work is offensive and combing forces, as they rely on attack SUVs, on board each car from 6 to 8 fighters with light and medium armament.
Military assessments indicate that these forces need a continuous supply of fuel, ammunition and food supply to soldiers, either by moving and returning to the camps to replenish, or moving in large columns accompanied by military trucks carrying supplies in the event of moving long distances, and one of the disadvantages is the slow movement of troops.
These military estimates suggest that in the absence of supplies, fuel is sufficient for 3 to 4 days on average, and ammunition is 3 days at maximum in the event of a continuous clash.
Inside Khartoum – according to military estimates – vehicles need to return to the camps to resupply and supply, so the goal of the first army was to destroy the rapid support camps and control them, as it bombed them by aircraft, so the forces lost their source of supply, which caused them to panic and became moving without planning, but rather became depleting their resources, which precipitates the cessation of their vehicles.
Estimates show that the army drained the RSF by freely opening the capital to them, while the capital could have been closed with armored vehicles. By destroying the RSF headquarters and killing and capturing most of their active and battle-hardened field commanders, these forces are left without a command, target, or communication, and rely on mobile phones, making it easier to intercept and monitor their calls.
Military estimates confirm that urban warfare needs a "long breath", not quick and fragile victories, and depends on progress and maintaining military gains through heavy military vehicles (tanks and armored vehicles), which the army outperforms rapid support.
The RSF has tried to broadcast videos of progress that could be real in some locations, but is fragile and cannot sustain as supplies of weapons, ammunition, fuel and food supplies are cut off, its forces are in control and communication with its field commanders.
According to estimates, the most important decisive factor in the war is the control of the skies, and the army has fighter jets and the Rapid Support has tried to control airports and bases in Khartoum, Meroe, El Obeid, Jabal Awliya and Wadi Sedna, in search of stationed warplanes, but failed to reach them and was surprised by the destruction of its bases and camps at the same time.
Military estimates conclude that the war may be prolonged or shortened depending on the data, but it will be decided in favor of the army.
Compensation for losses
In a related context, a military official in the operations room revealed that the army brought troops from military divisions from Shendi, Atbara and Al-Obeid to Khartoum, and special forces began their first tasks on Monday to resolve the battle after he described it as "breaking the back" of the Rapid Support Forces in the first two days and cutting off their supply.
Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan told Al Jazeera on Saturday that they would use troops from outside Khartoum if the war continued.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he stated that the warplanes bombed dozens of cars belonging to the Rapid Support that were on their way from Kassala (east of the country) towards the capital to compensate for the losses suffered, and neutralized fuel carriers, weapons, ammunition and anti-ground to supply their forces in Khartoum.
He estimated that the number of combat forces of the Rapid Support Forces - which began two days ago at more than 20 thousand - fell to about 4,<> fighters, after they lost contact and supply and left the battle and captured and killed others.
On the other hand, one of the advisers to the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo "Hemedti", said that they have achieved military victories in Khartoum and the states of Darfur and Meroe, and will not retreat and will continue to fight until the last soldier and considered the war "a hit-and-run."
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Hemedti's adviser said that they are not fighting the army, but rather "the brigades of the Islamic Movement and its militias that seek to turn back the clock and return to power," accusing the army of violating international humanitarian law regarding the treatment of prisoners.
Armies fight with their bellies
Maj. Gen. Amin Ismail Majzoub, an expert in crisis management and negotiation at the Strategic Research Center, believes that the RSF's war is about carrying out lightning attacks and returning to their bases. By destroying its bases and camps in Khartoum, the army was without bases, military supplies, supplies or food.
Majzoub says to Al Jazeera Net that the Rapid Support Forces have become fighting, and then do not know what to do for the lack of control and supply, so they are resorting to markets and citizens' homes in search of food, which loses them the spirit of fighting and the will to fight, as "armies are fighting with their stomachs", likely to lead this situation to the near end of the confrontations.
On the other hand, military expert Saleh Osman believes that Burhan, by bringing in elite forces and special forces and entering the battle in Khartoum, wants to resolve the battles that have entered their final chapters.
Saleh explains to Al Jazeera Net that Burhan is under regional and international pressure to stop the war, and he wants to resolve it quickly and impose the conditions of the military institution in any settlement, after he has broken the Rapid Support Forces, because the cessation of confrontations before resolving will make him make concessions that may not be accepted by the army, which has become convinced of victory over his former ally.