There were gloomy tones from Elisabeth Svantesson (M) when she presented the government's and SD's first spring budget this morning. Rising unemployment, negative growth, weaker public finances and high inflation, which at best will not fall back until next year.
There is great uncertainty about economic development, but the government notes that Sweden is now in a recession that will not subside until 2026. All in all, it is a very difficult economic situation for any finance minister, but perhaps especially for someone who went to the polls on the wallet issues and because it has become too expensive to be Swedish.
Not simply post-pandemic messages
Expectations of this spring budget should still have been low. The message from both the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister for months has been that it is important to endure and bite the bullet. Fighting inflation is the government's central priority, and responsible fiscal policy becomes synonymous with as few measures as possible. "We cannot compensate for everything" is the government's mantra combined with references to the measures in the autumn budget. It is not a simple message after a pandemic that has created expectations that the government will step in and prop up most of the time in a crisis.
SKR has sounded the alarm about large deficits and has already demanded notification of increased government subsidies for next year. But that did not happen. The government's message is that they will return in the autumn.
Nor will the business sector's desire for greater clarity when it comes to jobs and entrepreneurship be fulfilled in the spring bill. Admittedly, the government writes about the need for structural reforms for increased growth, but most of it is references to reforms already underway.
The message is also repeated when it comes to income tax cuts and stricter benefits, which are the fundamental building blocks of the bourgeoisie's cherished "work line". When it can be re-established is unclear. Only when inflation falls back does the government see an opportunity to realize the election promise of SEK 30 billion in a strengthened employment tax credit.
The attacks are recognized
On the whole, it is rather unclear what the government is planning for next year. And this is a difference from the Alliance government, which when it took office had a fully negotiated programme for economic and labour market policy. The Tidö parties do not. The glue of their government cooperation is about immigration, crime and energy. Not about economic policy. This suggests tough negotiations ahead of the autumn budget, provided, of course, that inflation allows for a more expansionary economic policy
The largest governing party, of course, hopes that voters will eventually reward them for steering Sweden through a difficult economic time. That is what happened during the financial crisis, but so far no such effects are visible, quite the opposite.
The opposition is airing the morning air and criticizing the government for doing too little. The attacks are recognizable from last autumn and revolve around the government not spending enough on welfare. If the opposition succeeds in putting the image of a government that sits on its hands and lacks an emergency plan, the government's difficult start can be extended.
Still, the government and SD do not seem particularly stressed by the criticism. One explanation is that the election is a long way away. The fact that they have a majority behind their economic policy is also an advantage that enables them to realise their election promises step by step, budget by budget.