Northern Ireland Protocol, Windsor Framework Agreement, Sausage Wars... Since the Brexit vote in 2016, Northern Ireland has been in the headlines again. In "relative peace" since the signing, in 1998, of the Good Friday Agreement, the level of terrorist alert was raised to "severe" by the British services on March 28.

Tensions are high in the province, which has been without a government for nearly a year. Police vehicles were targeted by firebombs during an illegal demonstration of Republicans in Londonderry on Monday 10 April, on the eve of the arrival of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden. The two heads of state will commemorate for several days the end of the bloody conflict, which left more than 3,500 dead between 1968 and 1998.

Behind this tense situation, an indirect consequence of Brexit, which "has revived tensions that existed in Northern Ireland since the signing of the agreement," says University Professor Aurélien Antoine, director of the Brexit Observatory.

"The balance of 1998 has always been fragile," continues the researcher, "but Brexit has played the role of an accelerator, deepening pre-existing difficulties in Northern Ireland."

To guarantee the peace achieved through the disarmament of the Northern Irish paramilitaries and the withdrawal of British troops, the Good Friday Agreement, ratified by London and Dublin under the aegis of Washington, stipulates that Northern Ireland belongs to the United Kingdom but that no physical border must separate it from Ireland. He also set up a two-party government elected by proportional representation, responsible for ensuring a link between the Protestant and Catholic communities.

But Brexit and the adoption of the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2019 by Boris Johnson's government have upset this fragile balance.

Compromise rejected by Unionists

To avoid any customs barriers on Irish territory, the protocol stipulates that British goods must comply with European standards as soon as they arrive in Northern Ireland. This initial control then allows them to move freely to Ireland and the European Union.

Linking the province to the European single market, the agreement creates an invisible border at sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom – a solution deemed intolerable for the unionists of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

Indeed, these elected representatives perceive in this customs border a dangerous distance with the United Kingdom. Fiercely opposed to the protocol, they blocked the functioning of local political institutions, refusing to create a government with the Sinn Fein Republicans until it had been withdrawn.

In an attempt to defuse the crisis, a new agreement, the Windsor Framework, was reached in February 2023 between the British authorities and the European Union. If accepted by the DUP, it would relax the control of goods, which would only apply to products destined for the Irish market, and not to those remaining in Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland Parliament would also have a veto on the European standards to be applied on its territory.

What future for Northern Ireland?

But not sure that this new proposal is enough to convince the DUP, doubts Fabrice Mourlon, professor at the Sorbonne-Nouvelle. Because Brexit has awakened an even broader and more complex question: that of the very future of Northern Ireland.

"Beyond the question of the control of goods, the blockade of the Unionists is explained by their fear that Brexit will lead to the reunification of Ireland," says the specialist. Since the introduction of the Protocol, trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland has increased, to the detriment of that between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Unionists therefore see Protocol as a threat to their position within the UK, and are afraid that their province will drift away from it."

Their party lost its dominant position for the first time in the 2022 general election, in favour of the Republicans of Sinn Fein. Another notable fact is that a non-sectarian party, the Northern Ireland Alliance, rose to third place.

The sign, for Aurélien Antoine, that Northern Ireland has changed and that it is time to review the balance established by the Good Friday Agreement in order to comply with changes in society.

"It would take a big discussion in Northern Ireland to change the Good Friday Agreement," he said. The DUP is favored by the institutional balance drawn from the agreement, while the population seems increasingly concerned about the economy, and less focused on identity and religious issues. The institutional balance of power should be questioned, as should the partition and future of Northern Ireland. But this cannot be done without in-depth work with Ireland and London, and we are still a long way from that."

On Sunday, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Dublin, London and Belfast were working to make Northern Ireland's government institutions "operational in the coming months".

In the meantime, the situation is hurting the population, which is going through the same economic crisis as the rest of the United Kingdom. In the absence of a government, no public policy can be adopted to help it cope with its difficulties, and things still seem far from unblocked.

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