Europe's leaders are trickling in on Beijing. Is the West looking for Chinese mediation to stop the war in Ukraine?

Urging China to play a positive role in seeking to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war and ensuring that it does not align itself with Moscow against the Western camp are key objectives of the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to China.

Western countries are counting on Macron's visit to China as he is able to have a long and in-depth discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the West's haunting issue: the Ukraine war.

To strengthen the French position, the European Union chose to send the president of the European Commission as a sign that the French president carries the message of the whole of Europe, and perhaps even messages from Washington, which the American newspaper Politico said it blessed the visit.

Macron's three-day visit will open the door to further visits by European leaders, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and EU foreign policy and security chief Josep Borrell scheduled to visit Beijing in mid-April.

Here, many questions arise about the secret of this European rush towards China at this particular time, and what cards Europe has to convince Beijing to pressure Russia to stop the war.

Economy First

Data from the European Union's Eurostate Statistics Foundation indicate that Beijing has become in 2022 the largest exporter of goods to the European Union, as Europe imports 20% of its goods from China, in contrast, the latter is the third customer of European goods, and China receives 9% of European goods destined for export.

Trade relations have turned into a strong card in China's hands, especially in recent years, and the volume of trade between Beijing and the European Union is $ 856 billion, of which $ 626 billion is Europe's imports from China, and $ 230 billion is China's imports from Europe, bringing the volume of trade deficit between the two parties to $ 395 billion in favor of Beijing.

The Netherlands is the largest country within the EU to import from China, while Germany is the largest exporter of goods to Beijing.

Globally, China is the world's largest exporter with more than $2844 billion, accounting for 50% of the world's exports of goods and merchandise, and it is also the second largest importer globally behind the United States, with Beijing importing $2273 billion annually.

Just as Europe needs Beijing, so China should consider not losing its biggest trading customer.

Mined position

Norwegian professor Klein Daizen, professor of international relations at the University of the Southeast, USAN, believes that China's position on the relationship with Russia and with the West regarding the war in Ukraine is "complex and complex," adding that China is trying to take a position for itself that makes it deal with the whole file as a global power.

Daizin confirmed in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that China so far does not support Russia in its war in Ukraine, but in return it supports Moscow in its conflict with NATO (NATO) because it sees it as a struggle for influence with the West.

"It is unclear what role China can play now, especially since the Europeans so far do not want to push Russia into negotiations, but they want to push it to defeat and withdraw," he said.

The Norwegian professor stresses China's economic strength, warning at the same time that the European economy is going through a deep crisis due to the policy of moving away from Russian energy sources, "and we have the United States that is pressuring the Europeans to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market, but if this happens, it will destroy the European economy."

Regarding his expectations for the points that the French president will raise with his Chinese counterpart, Daizin believes that "the Europeans need China to play a mediating role in the Ukrainian war, especially after Beijing's success in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran."

But at the same time, Daizin points to a conflict of opinion between Europeans and Chinese, "because the Europeans want China to persuade Russia to surrender, while Beijing does not want Russia to be defeated by NATO countries."

The solution in Beijing and Washington

For his part, British expert in international relations Chris Dowell predicts that the path of persuading Beijing to pressure Russia to negotiate to stop the war in Ukraine "will be a long one, especially since both sides do not currently want to stop the war, and each side seeks to defeat the other."

Dawel stressed, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that there are only two parties capable of stopping the war, namely China and the United States, but each party has its accounts, America does not want Russia to emerge victorious from the war, and China does not want Russia to come out defeated from this war, and for this Beijing and Washington will have to reach a common point between them in the middle.

Herein lies, according to Dowell, the role of the Europeans in persuading China to pressure Russia to negotiate and ensure that Beijing does not align itself with Moscow, as well as convey messages of reassurance from the Americans.

Although China views Russia as an ally, it knows that it is an ally that is gradually losing strength and weakening against an important economic ally, the European Union, so Beijing will have to balance its strategic and vital interests to take a position that is not completely hostile to the West regarding the Ukrainian war.