Q&A. Will the Baltic Sea become NATO's "sphere of influence"?

Robert Dalshaw, a researcher at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, argues that the Baltic Sea could become NATO's "sphere of influence" since, if Sweden and Finland join, all countries bordering the alliance will become members, with the exception of Russia, which will certainly be in a weaker position.

Here are the researcher's answers to 3 questions in this regard.

What is the impact of Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO in the Baltic Sea?

The Baltic Sea will already become a NATO sphere of influence and the alliance's chances of confinement to Russian naval forces to its bases will be better than they are. In the future, Russian ships leaving the Kronstadt military port near St. Petersburg will pass through the Gulf of Finland and will be surrounded to the north as well as to the south by NATO member states.

In the event of war, it would be difficult for the Russian navy to conduct operations above sea level while it may be able to conduct underwater operations, but it has very few submarines today and the threat is not great. Perhaps Russia should adopt a defensive rather than an offensive posture.

Why are the Baltops maneuvers important and their Russian counterparts?

These joint naval exercises – Baltops – between 11 countries including America, France, Germany and Denmark, as well as Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Norway, as well as Poland, Sweden and Estonia, are even more important this year.

The reasons for this year's enhanced participation are the war in Ukraine and the candidacy of Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Some countries have decided to send more ships to show their support, for example the United States has sent an amphibious assault ship called the Kersig, a large ship that is especially capable of deploying helicopters. I don't think we've seen such a ship in the Baltic Sea.

As for the Russian exercises, they are a political and military signal to remind us that they too have naval forces, the war in Ukraine showed the weakness of the Russian armed forces, which was a surprise. I can say that the threat posed by the Russian Navy is much less than it was previously.

What will the accession of Sweden and Finland change for the Baltic states?

As long as Sweden is outside the alliance, the Baltic states cannot be sure how Stockholm will behave in the event of a crisis. For example, will Swedish airspace remain open to NATO transport planes from the United States or Britain? If Sweden were a NATO member, the Baltic states would feel very reassured.