Finland's accession to NATO: why is Sweden still docked?

Romain Rouillard 18:54 pm, April 04, 2023

"Welcome to Finland in NATO!", tweeted President Emmanuel Macron moments after the official entry of the Nordic country into the Atlantic Alliance on Tuesday, April 4. A message accompanied by a sentence far from trivial: "I hope that we will welcome our Swedish friends very soon too". Because if Finland has just completed the fastest accession process in history - the application having been filed in May 2022 - its Scandinavian neighbor continues to gnaw its brake. The accession of the two countries, which must benefit from a green light from all NATO members, was supposed to take place simultaneously but Stockholm is still paying the price for the blockage operated by Hungary and Turkey.

Welcome to Finland in NATO!
I hope that we will welcome our Swedish friends very soon as well.

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) April 4, 2023

Hungary 'wants to exist in Europe'

"There are many grievances to be resolved before we can ratify" the Scandinavian country's entry into the Alliance, Hungarian government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said last Wednesday. While urging Sweden to "change its tone" and stop its policy of "denigration" towards Budapest. In Hungary's sights: some criticism, coming from Sweden, aimed at the authoritarian excesses of President Viktor Orban and the increasingly relative respect for the rule of law and democracy in this Central European country.

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But according to General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, this maneuver is mainly ideological. "Hungary wants to exist in Europe by adopting a posture closer to Russia because it is totally dependent on Moscow in terms of energy. She wants to mark her difference," he said. Budapest thus plays the role of the "troublemaker" within Europe, according to political scientist Frédéric Charillon, an expert in international relations. According to this specialist, "European and American pressure" could however be enough to convince Hungary to validate Sweden's membership of the Atlantic Alliance. "Hungary remains European. It is one thing for it to be dependent on Russia on certain points, but it knows very well that its interests depend on the European Union," added General Trinquand.

Turkey demands extraditions of PKK sympathizers from Sweden

As far as Turkey is concerned, the reasons given for keeping Stockholm out differ radically. Ankara, and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accuse Sweden of a form of leniency towards some of the Kurdish refugees, whom it welcomes on its territory, and who display, for some, a proximity to the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers' Party. An organization, qualified as terrorist by Turkey but also by the European Union, but tolerated by several cities of the Old Continent because of the action carried out against the Islamic State by the Syrian fringe of the PKK. "Turkey is asking Stockholm for extraditions that the Swedish constitution does not allow," says Patrice Moyeuvre, associate researcher at IRIS and specialist on Turkey.

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Finally, Ankara has still not digested the burning of the Koran by far-right politician Rasmus Paludan. A gesture made in front of the Turkish embassy on January 21 and which triggered the ire of President Erdogan, determined to oppose the Swedish candidacy in NATO as long as the kingdom did not take measures to ban blasphemy.

An electoral context that weighs heavily

For the time being, it is difficult to hope for an about-face from President Erdogan. "Turkey is in an election period (the presidential election will take place on May 14, Editor's note). Erdogan needs the nationalists to win knowing that he is in a delicate position. It is therefore out of the question for him to give in on this story of Kurds," says Dominique Trinquand. Should we also see a desire not to offend Russia, against which Ankara has always refused to apply Western sanctions? No, answer General Trinquand and Patrice Moyeuvre together. "If Erdogan did not want to offend Moscow, he would not have yielded on Finland, which shares a common border with Russia," he said. "For the Russians, Turkey is clearly a NATO member. It contributes to the common budget and operations. Whether or not to integrate Sweden will not change their perception," adds the second.

Clearly, if Sweden's accession process could end up unblocking on the Hungarian side, the Turkish veto appears more tenacious. And has almost no chance of being lifted before the next presidential election that will seal the fate of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for nearly ten years.