"This LPM acts an unprecedented increase in the defense budget" to reach 69 billion euros in 2030 against 32 billion in 2017, argues the entourage of Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who admits, however, to have prioritized some weapons programs to the detriment of others.

The budget for the armed forces will amount to €413 billion over seven years -- including €13 billion in extra-budgetary revenue that will be used to finance military aid to Ukraine.

A consequent effort that is justified by "the very rapid deterioration of the geopolitical context" marked by the war in Ukraine, but also "the appearance of many technological leaps that have a cost," says the ministry.

The budget of the armed forces will increase by 3.1 billion euros in 2024 and then by 3 billion euros per year from 2025 to 2027, before "marches" of 4.3 billion per year from 2028, beyond the current five-year period.

A "floor trajectory" to which "it will possibly be necessary to provide additions" depending on the threat, says the ministry, which hopes for the adoption of the LPM by Parliament before July 14.

Sébastien Lecornu also wants to request an additional expenditure of 1.5 billion euros in 2023, in addition to an annual budget of 43.9 billion. Objective: to counter "operational emergencies", particularly in terms of drones and anti-drones, one of the weaknesses of the French military system revealed by Ukraine, but also to cushion the effects of inflation.

The rise in prices mathematically erodes the increase in the defence budget. Its effect is estimated at thirty billion euros over seven years, acknowledges the ministry.

And despite a sharp increase in resources, not all anticipated needs will be met.

"There is no renunciation in this LPM, there are revisions of timing, some equipment may not arrive in as large a number as expected by 2030," explains the entourage of the minister.

Scorpio program in retreat

The Scorpion program to renew the armored component of the Army by vehicles connected to each other will pay the price, with "about a hundred Jaguars less" in 2030 out of the 300 initially planned and "a few hundred" Griffon and Serval armored vehicles also shifted post-2030, in return for an extension of the life of the VAB and AMX-10RC, of which a few dozen have been promised to Ukraine.

Similarly, deliveries of 42 Rafale fighter jets scheduled between 2027 and 2030 are stretched until 2032. In 2030, the Air Force will have 137 Rafale against an initial target of 185. And in 2030 the Navy will only be able to count on three of the five defense and intervention frigates.

Deliveries of A400M transport aircraft, essential to deploy assets to the Pacific area, will be accelerated from 20 aircraft currently to 35 in 2030, but the final target of 50 aircraft remains under discussion.

On the other hand, programs related to nuclear deterrence, a major item of expenditure, or the schedule of the next-generation aircraft carrier, which will be linked to the Charles-De-Gaulle by 2038, are preserved. The annual provision for financing external operations is set at EUR 800 million.

In the space field, marked by growing conflict, Paris will finance studies for the next generation of Celeste signals intelligence satellites and the successor to the Yoda patrol satellite program, designed to keep curious spacecraft away from French satellites.

The third Syracuse IV communication satellite, however, is abandoned in favor of a constellation whose contours remain to be defined.

As a result of the lessons learned in Ukraine, Paris also wants to increase its effort on ammunition and artillery with Caesar guns and the replacement in 2027 of unitary rocket launchers (LRU) by American Himars rocket launchers or a European solution, "this subject is not decided," according to the ministry.

The LPM also provides funding for the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) demonstrator and studies on the future Franco-German MGCS main battle tank.

© 2023 AFP