A new zero hour.. A new year of war with heavy equipment and weapons for Ukraine and Russian preparations for expansion

Kiev -

A year has passed since the Ukraine war, which was full of events and turns, but the last winter months passed without a noticeable change.

On the cusp of the second year, the war enters a stage that all parties say is "decisive", and the scene seems to be waiting for a new zero hour, determined by Russia's intention and preparations to expand further, and the flow of heavy and qualitative weapons to Ukraine from Western countries, some of which have become more assertive towards Moscow, Intent on supporting Kiev.

Ukrainian sniper shoots at the front line in Bakhmut (Reuters)

Bottling and manufacturing momentum

In Russia, the Ministry of Defense does not hide its intention to double the number of the army, to include about two million soldiers, more than half of whom will be newly mobilized, and Ukrainian intelligence confirms that the mobilization process has been going on in Russia since last September despite announcing its end, and the goal - in the opinion of the Ukrainians - More Russian soldiers are involved in new expansionist battles.

Russia also announced an increase in the volume of production of hypersonic missiles of various models, in light of the increase in Ukraine's capabilities in the field of air defense during the past months.

Hypersonic missiles are characterized by their speed that exceeds the speed of sound, and make dropping them by conventional missile defense systems impossible, in addition to flying at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, and the possibility of achieving a speed exceeding 5 times the speed of sound.

And Ukraine, which is currently preoccupied with obtaining tanks, planes, air defenses, and medium and long-range missiles from “allies, partners and friends,” as it calls them, is partially mobilizing its army as well, and indicates that thousands of its forces are actually training on the various weapons of the West in Germany, Britain and the United States. and others.

Military expert Ivan Stupak expects battles to rage in the middle of this year (Al-Jazeera)

Ahead of a hot summer

Against the background of the foregoing, analysts speculate about the outbreak of the upcoming battles and their areas, between those who see them imminent, and others who believe that the war will be between ebb and flow and that the year 2023 will not resolve it.

In his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Ivan Stupak, a military expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future and former advisor for military security affairs in the Ukrainian parliament, says that the escalation of heavy bombing may be with the approaching or around the first anniversary of the war, but the battles will rage in the middle of the year.

He added, "Russia has been mired in the mud of the city of Bakhmut in the Donbass region for months, and is not ready to open new fronts, and we are awaiting the arrival of the necessary mechanisms for the purpose of carrying out counter-operations, after training our forces on them."

For his part, the military expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Mykola Beliskov, told Al-Jazeera Net, "We may witness a very hot summer, and the battles may rage from the end of spring until autumn, but I think that the year 2023 will not resolve the war easily, because the spaces that must be liberated, including The Crimean peninsula and the entire Donbass region are greater than the necessary will and capabilities.

In this context, he added, "Russia is preparing for this matter more, in my opinion, as it is now taking the necessary measures to adapt society and the economy to a long-term war."

Beliskov: The year 2023 will not be decisive in the war for any party (Al-Jazeera)

Scaled West to Russia

Whatever the upcoming scenarios, the Ukrainians almost unanimously agree that they depend on the West's seriousness in supporting Ukraine and curtailing Russia's capabilities, leading to its "humiliation" on the fronts.

In this regard, military expert Ivan Stupak believes that "the West's decisions to provide Ukraine with Patriot defenses and Leopard, Abrams and Challenger tanks, and the ongoing discussions about providing it with F-16s or others, are clear indications of the West's seriousness in resolving this war." in favor of Ukraine.

In this context, Stupak believes that "the war exhausted the West and most of the countries of the world, but he realized the importance of supporting Ukraine to weaken Russia and limit its regional and global ambitions, whether by occupying lands or monopolizing some energy fields and others."

And he continues, "The West realizes that Kiev needs more to win over Moscow, especially after seeing how its aid led Russia to a situation of 'humiliation' on the fronts," he said.

But the most dangerous scenario here - according to Stupak - is that Russia's leadership will be placed in the corner of loss and failure, "which may push it towards more violence and crimes, or even push it to use weapons of mass destruction."