Maia Sandu sees Russia on her doorstep.
But not like in Ukraine, with tanks and soldiers.
The Moldovan president, known for her positions favorable to the European Union, denounced, on Monday February 13, an "attempted coup" orchestrated from Moscow to establish a "friendly" government in this country wedged between Ukraine in north and Romania to the south.
Proof of the concern that reigns in Chisinau, the Moldavian capital: on Tuesday, the government closed its airspace a few hours after discovering “a flying object” passed over two villages in the south of the country.
The "young man" of the FSB
Moscow has strongly denounced Maia Sandu's accusations, denying any "plan to destabilize Moldova".
The Russian Foreign Ministry even maintained that the Moldovan government had acted under the influence of "Ukrainian disinformation".
During his speech before the European Council on Wednesday February 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assured that his intelligence services had intercepted documents attesting to the imminence of a Russian action plan in Moldova.
"It is difficult to know if the Russian threat is imminent, because the accusations of Maia Sandu are not based on anything concrete. But one thing is certain: Moscow has been trying for several years to establish a regime that would be favorable to him, "explains Ryhor Nizhnikau, specialist in the political space of the former Soviet Union at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Russian attempts at destabilization even have a face in Moldova: that of Ilan Shor, an Israeli-Moldovan oligarch who has taken refuge in his second homeland.
It is this boss of a chain of duty-free stores and a bank who is targeted when Maia Sandu denounces "the violent actions disguised as protests by the so-called opposition".
Ilan Shor, head of the eponymous Shor party, has been accused several times of paying demonstrators who have been marching for months to demand the resignation of the current government, weakened by an economic crisis.
The businessman has always denied being a pawn of Moscow who would use his fortune – the exact amount of which is unknown, but which would exceed several hundred million euros – to fan the embers of popular discontent.
But "at this stage, I think his links with the Russian intelligence services are established", assures Ryhor Nizhnikau.
Ilan Shor is indeed at the heart of a series of revelations taken from confidential documents of the FSB – the Russian intelligence services – published by several media including the Washington Post, in October 2022.
Russian spies call this Israeli-born Moldovan businessman by a code name: "The Young".
At 35, Ilan Shor is indeed much younger than the previous "horse" on which the FSB had bet in Moldova: the former president of the republic and head of the Socialist party Igor Dodon, who is approaching fifty.
"The crime of the century" in Moldova
Igor Dodon ceased to interest Moscow in 2020: cascading revelations on multiple corruption cases have definitively discredited him in the eyes of public opinion.
The Russian spies then turned to an ambitious young businessman who had managed to get himself elected mayor of the small town of Orhei, just north of the capital, in 2015. "Ilan Shor is a populist who does not has no ideology of its own. It presents itself above all as anti-establishment in order to federate discontent”, underlines Ryhor Nizhnikau.
A perfect profile for the FSB: no ideological backbone and a certain appetite for money and power.
"He was considered malleable by Moscow," says the Washington Post.
The Russians will then help someone close to Ilan Shor to take control of two television channels in order to provide a media platform for his ideas.
They also sent a team of political advisers to support the Shor party.
But once again, Moscow has chosen a controversial "champion".
Indeed, Ilan Shor found himself sentenced in 2017 for corruption in "the crime of the century" in Moldova: he was found guilty of having embezzled nearly one billion euros from several banks, "the equivalent of 8% of the GDP of Moldova", underlines the Washington Post.
He contested the decision for two years and then decided to take refuge in Israel from where, thanks to his dual nationality, he did not risk being extradited.
It is from Tel Aviv that he now organizes his anti-Sandu campaign and "seeks to prove to Moscow that he is capable of organizing large-scale demonstrations", underlines Ryhor Nizhnikau.
Except that Moscow "lost confidence in Ilan Shor", continues the expert.
The FSB judges that he has not succeeded in making people forget the corruption affair which prompted him to leave Moldova.
The problem is "there is no credible alternative for Russia in Moldova at the moment", says Ryhor Nizhnikau.
A network of officials corrupted by Moscow?
Ilan Shor therefore became a default choice.
“The Russians hope that it can at least serve as a trigger for a crisis,” notes Ryhor Nizhnikau.
According to him, all Moscow asks is to succeed in bringing enough people onto the streets for long enough.
“Moldovan history has shown that power does not resist demonstrations that last. This is what happened in 2009 [after elections deemed rigged] then in 2015 [against a background of economic crisis and business of corruption]”, underlines this specialist.
If the protest movement gains momentum, then Russia could draw its secret weapon: “a network of officials and judges corrupted over the years, who could bring down power from within if Moscow asked them”, warns Ryhor Nizhnikau.
These officials, however, need popular support to act.
The whole plan of Moscow therefore rests well and truly on the shoulders of Ilan Shor and his ability to mobilize the discontented.
“Fortunately for Maia Sandu, the demonstrations remain too modest for the moment to make a difference”, notes the expert.
But Moscow has time.
Because if Ilan Shor fails, the deteriorating economic situation could cost Maia Sandu her job – a situation due in part to the Russian decision to drastically reduce the supply of energy to Moldova, which depends almost 100% on it.
"The parliamentary elections are two years away, and no pro-EU majority will be able to win if the economic situation does not improve", assures the specialist.
The economic and political support of Europe seems essential to him.
The EU "must not only help Chisinau find alternatives to Russian gas, but also push the government and help it get rid of corrupt elements in the administration", concludes Ryhor Nizhnikau.
The best way to chase away the threat of Russian influence.
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