• On November 9, Russian troops announced their withdrawal from the city of Kherson, capital of one of the annexed regions, marking a stinging military and political defeat for Moscow.

  • The Russian forces having entrenched themselves on the other side of the river, on the left bank of the Dnieper, the Ukrainians must now secure the city and rebuild.

  • Will they then be able to continue their offensive on the other side against the Russian forces?

    Elements of answers with Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise, contacted by

    20 Minutes

    .

The emotions of joy of the inhabitants of Kherson, Ukrainian flags in hand, showed how difficult the Russian occupation of the city had been for almost nine months.

Upon their arrival, the Ukrainian soldiers were greeted with flowers and hugs.

Even President Volodymyr Zelensky went to the city on Monday, when it was not yet secure, to sing the country's anthem.

This Ukrainian victory is all the more important as it is a serious setback for the Russian army.

Since September, the latter has been in difficulty in the face of counter-offensives by Ukrainian forces.

With the loss of Kherson, the Russians lost the capital of one of the regions annexed by Moscow in September.

However, the fighters in kyiv still have a long way to go before reclaiming their entire territory.

And why not as far as Crimea.

We do not know if the Ukrainian forces will have the capacity to do so, but “they have the will”, affirms to 20 Minutes Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise.

A week after his release, where is Kherson?

Taken by the Russians on March 2, the city was liberated after the evacuation order of the Russian soldiers on November 9.

But life has not yet resumed its normal course.

The inhabitants sometimes have no more water, no more electricity.

"Before fleeing Kherson, the occupants destroyed all the essential infrastructure - communication, water supply, heating, electricity", declared the Ukrainian president on November 12.

It will then be necessary to clear the rubble, rebuild the vital and essential infrastructures such as the evacuation of waste water, the treatment of waste.

The Russians were also able to set traps in their escape on the other side of the Dnieper, the river that runs along the city.

The importance of this city for the Kremlin, due to its key location to connect Crimea annexed by Russia since 2014 and the Ukrainian port of Odessa to the West, spared it destruction.

But the danger is not completely eliminated.

"There is a risk of sabotage, traps and mines" of the city left by the Russians, warns Isabelle Dufour.

The head of the national police, Igor Klymenko thus alerted the inhabitants of the city to the presence of explosive devices left by the Russian forces and called on them to “move with caution”.

According to him, a policeman was injured during a demining operation in a building in Kherson.

“There is a transition phase between military planning and civil planning,” explains Isabelle Dufour.

It is now up to the Ukrainian civil engineers to start demining, and that can take time, several weeks.

But unlike other recent battlefields, here the inhabitants have every interest in helping their fighters to unearth the dangers.

"The inhabitants of Kherson will help them find, report such apartment which served as a base or likely to be trapped", develops Isabelle Dufour.

How can the Ukrainian forces continue the counter-offensive?

After the forced evacuation of more than 70,000 civilians from the city, the Russian army crossed the Dnieper to take refuge on the other side of the river, on the left bank.

To continue their breakthrough, the Ukrainian forces will also have to split the river.

"But it could be complicated," warns Isabelle Dufour.

"The bridges and boats were destroyed, in their flight, the Russians left nothing that could be used to cross," she says.

In addition, an assault by water “requires large military and support resources while the Russians could hit the Ukrainian forces at the time of the landing, it is very risky”, abounds the director of strategic studies at Eurocrise.

Especially since the Ukrainian forces are not renowned for their maritime component, nevertheless "the Ukrainians have often surprised us in this war", she nuances.

It then depends on the capabilities of the Ukrainian army but also on the state of the Russian forces opposite.

The other way is encirclement.

Instead of crossing, the fighters of the army of kyiv could isolate the Russian positions in the region of Kherson "which would fall by itself", analyzes Isabelle Dufour.

"The Russians are in a defensive position, it's easier to hold but also easier to target," she says again.

Especially since there are many maneuvers of Russian troops towards Zaporozhye.

“They may be reorganizing,” explains Isabelle Dufour.

And the Ukrainian forces could "take advantage of this weak point", she adds.

What battles are left to fight?

The victory in Kherson is all the more striking as the Russian withdrawal is the third on a scale since the start of the invasion on February 24, Russia having had to give up in the spring to take kyiv in the face of fierce resistance from the Ukrainians, before to be driven out of almost all of the Kharkiv region (north-east) in September.

“Only together can we prevail and drive Russia out of Ukraine.

We are on the right track”, declared on November 12 the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba.

But many battles remain to be fought.

In Bakhmout on the eastern front, fighting continues to rage.

Moscow has been trying to conquer this city since the summer.

It is the main battlefield where the Russian army, supported by the men of the paramilitary group Wagner, remains on the offensive.

However, "Russia is deploying a lot of effort there for little impact on the ground, they are exhausted and even if the Ukrainians are losing a little ground there, it is not significant", believes Isabelle Dufour.

Especially since a capture of Bakhmout by the Russian army would be a great victory, but not as much as that of the Ukrainians in Kherson, an annexed city belonging to the Russian story of victory.

And if other capitals of annexed regions, in Donetsk, Luhansk or Zaporozhye were liberated by Ukrainian forces,

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kyiv has already warned: total victory would only be established when all of their territory, including Crimea, was taken over.

If it is released, with Donbass in the East, "it would be the ultimate victory", according to the director of strategic studies at Eurocrise.

This is a possibility that is not excluded.

The Ukrainians are now 90 km from the region.

“To see if they have the capacity, but they have the will in any case, recalls Isabelle Dufour.

And that would be an ultimate humiliation.

This will probably require more Western military aid.

So if Ukraine manages to cross the Dnieper and sow panic on the Russian side, they could then put all their forces into Crimea.

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