Not because of the war this time... Millions of people are threatened with emigration from their countries

LONDON

- Those who believe that the refugee crisis may stop with the cessation of armed conflicts in poor countries are mistaken, as the world is on the verge of a new type of asylum, the victims of which are numbering in the millions, and in the next few years they will turn into tens of millions, and it is related to migrants and refugees due to climate changes, who will be forced to leave their homes their cities and even their countries;

due to floods, prolonged droughts, or high temperatures.

According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, about 21.5 million people around the world are currently leaving their homes due to natural disasters, and scientists expect that this wave of migration will increase dramatically with the rise in global temperatures.

A report on climate change - issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - predicts that about 143 million people have fled their lands during the past 30 years;

This is due to drought, high temperatures, fires, and natural disasters.

And it appears through the figures - issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees - that there is a close relationship between the current phenomenon of asylum and climate changes.

This is because 90% of the refugees - at the present time - come from countries classified as suffering from a dangerous climatic situation and in need of urgent intervention.

The great migration

The International Organization for Migration of the United Nations expects that the number of so-called climate migrants will reach one billion people during the next 30 years, and this migration may be from one city to another, or from one country to another, or from one continent to another, and expects this number to rise to 1.4 billion people during the year 2060, and it also indicates that this number will increase - after this year - further.

Because of the record high temperatures, and the world's population is also increasing.

3 regions of the world top the list of places that will witness the largest migrations due to climate change;

They are: Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia. In 2018, 68.5 million people in these regions were forced to migrate from their places of residence due to climate change, which is the highest number ever recorded by humanity.

Among the countries that will be most affected by climate change: Bangladesh, where it is estimated that a third of the population - about 55 million people - live along a low-lying coast that is threatened with drowning, an area that has become uninhabitable, and 13 million Bangladeshis are expected to leave the country by 2050;

due to climate changes.

Bangladesh is among the countries most affected by climate change (Anatolia)

According to the Climate Data Portal (migrationdataportal.org);

There are 5 countries that lead the countries of the world, in terms of the number of citizens who leave them due to climate changes, and live in a state of climatic asylum, and in the forefront: there is Afghanistan (1.4 million people), then China (943 thousand people), then the Philippines (700 thousand people), Then Ethiopia (579 thousand people), then South Sudan (527 thousand people).

As for internal displacement due to climate change, there are five countries at the forefront of this phenomenon.

These are: China (6 million people) who left from one city to another in China, then the Philippines (5.7 million people), then India (4.9 million people), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (880 thousand people), then Vietnam (780 thousand people), and the droughts lead And the high temperatures causes people to leave their cities towards other cities.

According to the same source, disasters in 2021 caused more than 60% (23.7 million) of new internal displacement cases recorded all over the world, which is a lower number than recorded in the years 2019 and 2020, and this is due to the decline in hurricane intensity in America and Latin America. And the strong rainy seasons in Asia did not cause major floods.

North migration

Many countries have begun to apply (visas) for victims of climate change, and the first country to take this step is Argentina, to receive citizens from the Caribbean region affected by natural disasters, which is the same thing that Brazil did.

And while the population of the earth has reached 8 billion people, it is expected that this number will reach 10 billion people by the year 2060, but the increase in the population will concern countries threatened by natural disasters in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, and in contrast, the countries of the North - especially Europe and Canada - It will be the coldest areas in the world, compared to the rest of the globe, which means that migrations and climate refuge will be towards these countries.

What is different this time is that the northern countries may need these migrations.

Because of the demographic deficit in developed countries from European countries to Canada and the United States, in the year 2050 there will be more than 300 million people in these countries over the age of 65, which means the need for young people and workers, which can be provided by the countries of the south and immigrants And refugees fleeing - this time - from climate change, not from the horrors of war.