When Belarusian dictator Alexandr Lukashenko talks about his alliance with Vladimir Putin, it pays to listen carefully.

Lukashenko pretends to be firmly on Russia's side, but the undertone of his words says otherwise.

This was also the case on Monday: His claim that Belarus must protect its western border against a threat from NATO, which wants to stab its Russian brothers in the back via Belarus, is a rejection of the Kremlin.

With arguments that are ostensibly directed against the West and thus fit into Russian propaganda, he explains why he is unable to take part in the war against Ukraine.

Lukashenko is more dependent on Putin than any other head of state in the world.

Russia controls large parts of the Belarusian economy;

Security services and armed forces of the two countries are closely intertwined.

Lukashenko would not have survived the protests in summer 2020 without support from Moscow.

Lukashenko allows Russia to use his country's territory for attacks on Ukraine.

But even he does not fully support Putin.

Perhaps he fears his patron's victory as an even greater threat to his own power than his defeat.

Putin has no real allies outside of Russia.