Expectations to worsen in 2023
The global food crisis is in its infancy...Women are the most affected
If this year's wheat harvest is abundant, it will contribute to alleviating the crisis in some areas.
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Until years ago, world leaders committed themselves to a very ambitious goal of ending hunger by 2030. That goal is now more elusive than ever.
The United Nations estimates that the number of people in “hunger emergencies” — just one step away from famine — has jumped from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million today.
Last week, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator warned that famine was "at the doorstep" in Somalia.
In the Horn of Africa, devastated by drought, 22 million people are at risk of starvation.
Almost a third of Pakistan is under water, and many of its livestock have died.
In southern China, drought and a heat wave are putting crops at risk.
This came in the wake of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which affected supplies from two major exporters, and led to higher energy and fertilizer prices.
The war did not create a crisis
Meanwhile, the chief economist at the United Nations World Food Program, Arif Hussain, noted that the war itself did not create a crisis, but rather "put a lot of fuel on an already burning fire."
Multiple conflicts and climate shocks already had an impact when the pandemic hit.
Although their effects on food production were not as severe, as many feared, they depleted reserves and many did not recover.
It seems very likely that 2023 will be worse.
Two-thirds of those affected by hunger last year were women, with the food security gap between women and men increasing by eight times since 2018.
bear the costs
The UN stresses that the issue at present is not one of supply, but of access and affordability.
Globally, prices rose by about 20% on an annual basis (while food inflation is 33% in Iran, and 122% in Lebanon).
But production is a growing concern.
Fertilizer prices are up as much as 300% in some countries in Africa, while wars and harsh weather hamper the planting of next year's crops.
The crisis reveals the dysfunctional diet behind it, in which consumers, often producers, suffer while others make huge profits.
Grain trading is concentrated in the hands of only four companies, which make record profits from the basic foodstuffs that the world urgently needs.
Speculation and profiteering have been blamed for causing protests, such as those in the Arab world, during the past food crisis, and the fear is that speculation and profiteering are still prevalent again.
The resumption of Ukraine's grain exports, while badly needed, cannot fix this even if it continues.
A good harvest may help, if the main food-producing regions are more fortunate with the weather next year.
A corporate tax, which has benefited greatly from the pandemic, could be used to help feed people now and create a sustainable food system, Oxfam has suggested.
Emission reduction
Any long-term solution will require reducing carbon emissions, adapting crops to the continuing climate crisis, and reducing reliance on chemical fertilizers;
and challenging the dominance of a small number of players in food markets.
Even UN human rights experts attacked last year's food systems summit for failing to include the voices of the most vulnerable or bring about any meaningful change.
The failure of governments to address the real problems has left the way for companies to exploit high prices for excessive profit, and Russia has manipulated food for political ends;
It is a tactic that others may be tempted to adopt in the future, and they are well aware of it;
And the cost is deadly.
Achieving the 2030 goal is now more difficult than ever.
The backsliding must be stopped.
Historical standards
Arab countries have been greatly affected by the rise in the prices of the main foodstuffs. archival
Despite the recent extraordinary rise in food prices, global stocks of the three basic commodities - rice, wheat and maize - are still large by historical standards.
Finally, the Group of Seven took an important step by pledging not to impose a ban on food exports, and to use “all instruments and financing mechanisms” to enhance global food security.
This group includes many of the largest commodity exporters, including the United States, Canada and the European Union.
Major food exporters, such as Australia, Argentina and Brazil, should join this commitment.
International organizations have called for maintaining the continuity of global food flows, especially at a time of increasing economic and geopolitical pressures, as a minimum requirement from policy makers, everywhere, so as not to harm any party.
The uninterrupted provision of food aid benefits the citizens of all countries.
It would also give national policymakers a much better chance of weathering all the other shocks of the war in Ukraine.
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Global price increase.
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One million people are currently in a “hunger emergency,” according to the United Nations.
Two-thirds of those affected by hunger last year were women, with the food security gap between women and men increasing by eight times since 2018.
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