Rapid developments in the Iraqi capital during the past 24 hours, after events descended into armed clashes in the Green Zone since midday on Monday, the conference of the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr came at 1:00 p.m. today, bringing an end to a bloody chapter.

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The leader of the Sadrist movement surprised the Iraqi scene today by redressing the security situation in the capital, which witnessed a serious security deterioration that caused the death of at least 30 dead and 700 wounded, according to accounts issued by health institutions. Today, in his speech, al-Sadr directed all his supporters to withdraw from the Green Zone within one hour. With his threat, to disavow all of the demonstrators who do not respond to his orders.

In his speech, Al-Sadr offered an apology to the Iraqi people for what happened, considering that the Iraqi is the main victim of what happened, explaining that the country, after it was captive to what he described as "corruption", is now captive to violence and corruption together, adding, "We hoped that there would be peaceful protests not With weapons” and that if the armed factions were dissolved, Iraq would not have reached this situation.


What are the prospects?

The recent developments that led to the armed clash in Baghdad and some Iraqi provinces come nearly 11 months after the early legislative elections that created a political blockage and a crisis that the country has not witnessed since 2003, as the Sadrist movement bloc, which won 73 parliamentary seats out of 329, failed to form the government. Iraq even after its alliance with the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party in what was known at the time as the Triple Alliance.

After the tripartite alliance failed to choose the president of the republic and assign the government, the Sadrist movement tended to submit mass resignations to its deputies from Parliament, and then went to sit-ins and demonstrations inside the Iraqi parliament and its surroundings in the Green Zone.

There are many opinions about the next steps that will follow Muqtada al-Sadr's speech, which ended the bloody clashes in Baghdad.

Al-Tamimi, who is close to the Sadrist movement, added that he expects that there will be a response from the other political blocs affiliated with the coordination framework, believing that these blocs may meet today and take a decision, which he described as "giving back" to the leader of the Sadrist movement, and announce the approval to dissolve parliament and go to elections. An early date in which the Sadrist movement participates, arguing that the political process and the next government cannot continue in light of the resentment of the Sadrist movement's public and what happened after the recent elections.

Al-Tamimi suggested that the coordination framework would respond positively to Al-Sadr's move by accepting the dissolution of Parliament and calling for early elections (Al-Jazeera Net)

The decision to dissolve parliament

Regarding the party that will supervise the elections if the coordination framework agrees to go towards it, Al-Tamimi explained that there are parties that he described as moderate within the coordination framework that do not mind the outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi remaining at the head of a transitional government, so that the House of Representatives will then be dissolved and new early elections, He stressed that knowing these details needs more time, according to him.

For his part, Muhannad al-Janabi, a professor of political science at Cihan University in Erbil, believes that after the recent developments in the country, Muqtada al-Sadr's speech may indicate the occurrence of a hidden agreement between the political blocs during the past hours, and one of them may be the dissolution of Parliament through the Federal Court, which had Today, the lawsuit filed in this regard has been postponed until further notice, in view of the Cabinet’s decision yesterday to disable government institutions and impose a comprehensive curfew.

Al-Janabi considered that the Iraqi file is closely related to the regional files (Al-Jazeera Net)

Al-Janabi, speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, explained that if this happens, the Sadrist movement will have won its demands and conditions for which the demonstrations and sit-ins took place inside the Green Zone, and thus go to early elections.

And about the extent to which recent developments are linked to regional files, Al-Janabi believes that the Iraqi file is closely linked to regional files, including the Iranian nuclear file, especially since the news is that the 5+1 group has reached advanced stages that may pave the way for a return to the nuclear agreement with Iran, which was the president The former American Donald Trump withdrew from it in 2018, which may mean that the Western-Iranian negotiations are witnessing negotiations related to regional files, including Iraq.

On the other hand, political researcher Omar Abdel Sattar believes that with the withdrawal of the leader of the Sadrist movement from the scene after his speech today and his decision to retire, Parliament will return to work in the absence of any real initiative to dissolve Parliament in light of the postponement of the Federal Court for its session that was scheduled for today.

Abdul Sattar continues that the real reasons for the clashes were in the statement of the retirement of the religious authority Kazem Al-Haeri (residing in Qom, Iran) yesterday, which was imitated by the followers of the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada Al-Sadr, as Al-Haeri’s statement encouraged the imitation of the reference and the guide of the Iranian revolution Ali Khamenei, which is considered a withdrawal of the religious reference Shiites from Najaf to Iran, which means that in addition to the political dispute that Iraq is witnessing, there is another problem represented in the conflict of Shiite references between Iraq and Iran, which led Muqtada Al-Sadr to what happened yesterday to prove that his supporters are Iraqis and has an actual impact on their movements, according to him. .

Abdul Sattar expects the Iraqi parliament to return to work (communication sites)

Internationalization of the crisis

Returning to Al-Janabi and the possibility of internationalizing the Iraqi file, he adds that with the calm that has occurred between the parties to the political process in Iraq now, the current political system is witnessing many bumps that expose it to similar crises even if everyone agrees to go to early elections, believing that the system cannot be reformed. The Iraqi politician, from within or from without, by peaceful means, except with international intervention using force, which may seem unlikely until the moment, according to him.

In this direction, political researcher Ghanem al-Abed goes, who believes that political problems still persist even with the agreement that ended armed clashes in Baghdad and ended the demonstrations, explaining that there is no political party capable of resolving the political blockage, and therefore the crisis in the country may turn to internationalization, especially with The UN envoy, Jeanine Plasschaert, and the European Union delegation failed to act to remedy what happened yesterday.

Abu Ragheef: Al-Sadr's speech ended the state of fighting that would have dragged the country into unimaginable consequences (Al-Jazeera Net)

The parties to the armed conflict

Armed clashes lasted in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, and some southern cities for about 24 hours, starting in the middle of yesterday and ending only with Muqtada al-Sadr’s speech this afternoon. Present in the clashes are the Peace Brigades and the Mahdi Army on the one hand, and other well-known factions - he preferred not to mention them - noting that the speech of the leader of the Sadrist movement ended the state of fighting that would have dragged the country to what he said.

For his part, political researcher Ghanem al-Abed reveals that the parties that participated in the clashes were the factions of Saraya al-Salam and the Mahdi Army of the Sadrist movement on the one hand, in contrast to other factions headed by Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and some other less powerful factions of the League.

As for the weapons that were used in the clashes, Abu Ragheef confirms to Al Jazeera Net that the clashes witnessed the use of various types of light and medium weapons without resorting to heavy weapons, pointing out that medium weapons are more dangerous than heavy weapons in the areas witnessing clashes between parties that are geographically close to each other, Especially since the perimeter of the green zone does not exceed 5 kilometers.

The armed clashes ended and the situation returned to normal in Baghdad and various Iraqi cities, but the Iraqis are still waiting for the political agreements in the coming days to avoid the difficult hours they witnessed last night.