Like the French weather in recent days, Emmanuel Macron's return to school promises to be hectic, even stormy.
If the Head of State knows that he must expect a complicated social agenda, with the prospect of thorny pension or unemployment insurance reforms against a backdrop of a general increase in the cost of living and the climate crisis and energy, it is also not ignorant of the urgency of international issues.
Moreover, "at the start of his second term, we observe that Emmanuel Macron is more absorbed by geopolitical questions with the war in Ukraine and other international questions", notes Bruno Cautrès, researcher at Cevipof and teacher at Sciences Po.
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Emmanuel Macron's return to politics © France24
Diplomatic warming with Algiers
His diary is a good testimony to this.
For his recovery after a "studious" vacation at Fort Brégançon, the President of the Republic has planned to make an official visit to Algiers and Oran from August 25 to 27, responding to the invitation of his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
The goal?
“Relaunch bilateral relations”, we are assured on the side of the Elysée.
This trip comes at the end of an important memorial sequence with the 60th anniversary of the Évian agreements (March 18, 1962), which put an end to more than seven years of war between Algerian insurgents and the French army, and the independence of the Algeria (July 5, 1962) after 132 years of French colonization.
The visit is mainly intended to turn the page on a series of misunderstandings and tensions that culminated in the recall of the Algerian ambassador in October 2021 after comments by the French president on the Algerian "politico-military" system. and the Algerian nation.
"The two heads of state want to 'deepen relations' between the two countries, in particular to develop new economic partnerships and try to overcome the divisions linked to the colonial past", explains Fayçal Métaoui, France 24 correspondent in Algiers.
In this period of research for alternatives to Russian gas, the question of Algerian oil and gas could be raised.
Just like the questions relating to Islam in France and to migratory regulation (issue of visas by Paris against facilities for the return of illegal Algerian migrants present on French soil).
Finally, "the question of security in a region plagued by jihadism should also be on the menu of discussions", assures Michel Galy, political scientist specializing in African issues.
Consolidation of Barkhane in Niger and Chad
Still on the security chapter, Paris keeps repeating it: "France is still committed to the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea and the Lake Chad region with all the partners committed to stability and the fight against terrorism", insists we at the Elysée.
If France recorded the end of Operation Barkhane in Mali on February 17, after nine years of anti-jihadist struggle, due to "multiple obstructions" by the ruling junta in Bamako, the president nevertheless underlined that Paris remained mobilized in the region.
"France will continue the fight against terrorism, by acting in support of the political, civil and military efforts of ECOWAS and States in the region, and in full coordination with our European and American partners engaged in the region",
reads the presidential document released on August 15.
Emmanuel Macron also intends to respond favorably to the invitation of ECOWAS "this fall in order to continue this commitment alongside all the States which choose to fight against terrorism and respect stability and coexistence between communities," the statement said.
This military commitment suggests a development of France's relations with Niger and Chad, countries where French troops based in Mali have been redeployed for Operation Barkhane.
"The whole challenge of the next few months will be to see how Emmanuel Macron intends to develop these relations. The trauma of Barkhane's failure is still in everyone's mind. The risk of seeing a Chadian or Nigerien population in turn nurture anti-French resentment and mobilizing against Paris as in Mali is not to be ruled out", warns Michel Galy.
The thorny Malian question
Admittedly, France has withdrawn its troops from Mali but it is not finished with this country of the Sahel.
First, "it's a safe bet that France, which has become the enemy of the Malian junta, is supporting all Malian opposition forces, such as the Tuareg forces of the MNLA, or even all hostile countries in Bamako, like Côte d'Ivoire which signed the embargo against Mali at ECOWAS", assures Michel Galy.
Then, France remains mobilized on the front of the release of Olivier Dubois.
"Every effort is being made to obtain the release of our compatriot", can we read in a press release from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on August 22, when the journalist - the only French hostage listed in the world - has been held for more than 500 days after his abduction by jihadists in Gao, in the north of the country.
Ukraine and the preservation of peace in Europe
The war in Ukraine "which thunders at the gates of Europe" remains Emmanuel Macron's major priority for this return to school.
The Head of State prepared the French on July 14 for a difficult autumn, with the risk of energy shortages fueled by the Ukrainian conflict and disputes over gas coming from Russia.
On the diplomatic field, "Emmanuel Macron's objective is to preserve peace and put an end to the war between Russians and Ukrainians by maintaining dialogue with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, because we cannot envisage an end to the conflict without agreement with all the parties," said Bruno Cautrès.
Lately, "relations with the Ukrainian president have become strained, the head of the
Ukrainian state reproaching its French counterpart for its lack of material support.
The Élysée must continue the difficult balancing act by maintaining relations with Russia without offending Ukraine."
The new relations with the United Kingdom
In the context of the war in Ukraine, "the new diplomatic relations that Paris and London will establish pending a new British Prime Minister will prove crucial for the future", judges Bruno Cautrès, while the Tories must designate the new tenant of 10 Downing Street on September 5.
Because the United Kingdom is, with France, the only European military power likely to provide significant support to Ukraine.
This is why "it will be interesting to observe how Emmanuel Macron and the Franco-German duo will renew the dialogue with the new British executive".
Iran's nuclear
On May 5, France expressed its "very great concern" after the publication, the day before, of a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) pointing out the absence of "satisfactory answers" from Iran concerning traces of enriched uranium found on undeclared sites.
Mobilized alongside the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany and Russia, Paris intends to actively participate in the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Emmanuel Macron also believes "the relaunch of the 2015 agreement is still possible. On condition of intervening as soon as possible", he said after an interview on July 23 with Iranian President Ebrahim. Raissi.
A meeting to save the
The development of cultural cooperation
Finally, Emmanuel Macron wants to continue his policy of returning looted cultural objects to African countries.
After returning some 26 statuettes from the Kingdom of Dahomey to Benin in December 2021, Paris does not intend to stop there.
The French government wants to pass a framework law in Parliament to ensure the return of works stolen from African countries.
This action is more broadly in line with the Head of State's desire to be transparent about France's colonial past.
"The return of these objects has a strong symbolic value, concludes Michel Galy. It is also part of a logic of soft power which allows France to maintain good relations with the intellectuals of the countries of French-speaking Africa."
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