The difficulty of the European Union to amass sufficient reserves to be able to do without Russian exports during the winter without creating a shortage has caused the price of the Dutch TTF futures contract to rise to 257.40 euros, unheard of at the end of of session.

During the session, it had only exceeded this level during the extremely volatile first days of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia to reach an all-time high on March 7 at 345 euros.

While Gazprom has claimed that gas deliveries will resume after a shutdown from August 31 to September 2, the market remains nervous: the European Union accuses Moscow of using gas as leverage in the context of its invasion of the Ukraine.

As a result, the German energy regulator reported on Thursday that the country risks missing its target for filling its reservoirs set by the government of Olaf Scholz.

Regulator chief Klaus Müller warned that shortages were to be expected in some regions during the winter, and that it was "not one winter but at least two, and the second winter could be still more difficult".

Europe is painfully trying to wean itself off Russian gas, on which Germany is particularly dependent.

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In Germany, from October 1, importers will be able to charge 2.4 cents more per kilowatt hour (KWh) of gas from companies and individuals.

Even if the government has promised to amortize it for the most modest, "the shock on the October bill should lead to a reduction in household demand", comment analysts at Deutsche Bank.

- Electricity follows -

Electricity, for its part, mechanically follows the evolution of gas prices, because the market is fixed on the cost of the gas (and coal) power stations called in to the rescue to ensure the balance of the system.

Prices were driven "by low wind levels (for wind power) as well as high costs for coal and gas-fired power," said analysts at Rystad Energy.

At the same time, a particularly hot summer limited the production of electricity: the heat wave affected the cooling systems of the nuclear power stations and the drought prevented the barges from bringing coal to the German power stations.

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However, the heat wave stimulates electricity consumption for air conditioning and ventilation, limiting the usual drop in the summer months.

Electricity for delivery next year in Germany exceeded 500 euros per MWh for the first time in recent days, compared to just over 300 euros in early July.

"This could be Europe's biggest energy crisis for at least a generation," warns John Plassard, an analyst at Mirabaud.

Oil down

In the wake of gas prices, oil, which had started the session down, rallied: +0.76% to 97.32 dollars for the European benchmark, Brent from the North Sea for delivery in October , and +1.14% to 91.17 dollars for the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) which expires in September.

The rebound in prices does not convince all observers.

"There are a lot of reasons to bet on a decline, but market players seemed to have forgotten them for two sessions," said Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM.

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He points out that volumes are particularly thin this summer, which promotes increased price volatility and pushes the analyst to give little credit to the rebound that began on Wednesday after a surprise drop in American stocks.

"A global recession that would destroy demand remains the main worry, with some bleak data coming out of the eurozone and China," he added.

On Friday, the strength of the dollar, boosted by the prospect of a tightening of monetary policy in the United States, also weighed on oil.

As the greenback is the reference currency of the oil market, its rise weighs on the purchasing power of investors who use other currencies.

© 2022 AFP